84 replies to this topic

[JennyInTokyo]

Hmmm...does that mean AKB singles are going on a slow decline?
Maths isn't my strong point Honestly it isnt

[Krusha]

Well, yes. 

 

And here's a few things to consider: 

 

In general, Japanese music industry as a whole is declining.

 

If you look at AKB48's singles since Beginner (their first 1M selling single) til today, that is twenty singles out of twenty-two, which sold over 1M...(21 if Green Flash also gets 1M). In short, this is absurd.

 

Yet there's still a decline, but this decline isn't so rough as it usually is with groups and artists. Just recall how popular Morning Musume was in their golden era, and also recall how quickly they dropped. And this was in a period where music sales were much, much higher than today. So AKB48 clearly handling their decline in an excellent manner.

 

The day will come however, when they cannot sell 1M+ anymore. It will suck I think, but it's inevitable. But we shouldn't focus only on sales figures. I like the 1M+ numbers, they're cool, and Sayonara Crawl was -this- close to selling 2M... I am more concerned about actual content of singles however, be it songs, videos, member lineups, and DVD extras. Far too often I find that they are a bit too lazy with these things, but then again they surprise me with something awesome, so my interest is still there after all these years. Now I just want new stages, and no more grand shuffle

[Ares13]

To me .. my understanding of decline is very different..
It also involve the group position in the industry..
For many years after the MM golden era.. people would say it is MM decline..
But if you look at it.. that was the time.. they are still like the only idols at their level..
Ya they don't get the huge sales like before.. but they are still the no.1 idols and they are the only idols who can top 3 the charts at almost any time..
So it look like MM didn't decline but the idol industry decline..
And ya.. the whole music industry decline ..
However .. MM being the industry leader actually would drive the whole idol industry ..
And it terrible times for every idol ..groups are disbanding fastee than groups are forming..
AKB48 nearly went down with it ..

But AKB48 did manage to survive and break through and become the industry leader now ..
Their sales may look less .. but if you look at the other idols .. groups are forming faster than they disband .. many idol groups are now in the top 10 or even top 3 of the charts ..
So to me.. their sales may be slowly decreasing.. but they are not declining to me..
They are actually still growing because they are still the industry leader by far and influencing the idol industry that is still growing..

So that's my reasoning..

[Krusha]

Morning Musume declined years before AKB48 was created. And Morning Musume were giants in a desolate idol market back in the days. They had zero competition, as there just weren't anybody else around. There also wasn't any kind of idol-boom, it was just Morning Musume and Hello!Project. Any other idol group was pretty much insignificant. 

 

When AKB48 was created, that was different, as there were other idol groups around, and then later on the market exploded, creating the scene we have today.

 

At any rate, a decline in sales figures means that you have less total sales figures than what you used to have. It's very simple actually. And look at what non-idols are selling these days, it's not impressive. If you love female idols, then it's certainly not bad, but if you hate idols - male or female - and you're into jpop and jrock, then it's really not much strength in the charts from those scenes, numberswise.

 

 

Today with 9,941 copies sold. Total of 991,752 so far. 8,248 needed for 1M (which will in all likelihood occur through the consolidation figures).

[the rose garden]

I don't think we'll ever see AKB hit the bottom like MM did or even get back to 100k - 500k sales, because Akimoto will pull the plug before it has the chance to. Right now they're the top idol group of Japan, but I can't help but wonder who will be the top idol group a few years from now, whether they're around already and what they will be like. AKB has become such a phenomena that it makes you wonder how any group will ever be able top it.

[JennyInTokyo]

I guess in terms of sales they're on a slow decline but their popularity is still massive it cannot be denied!!

They are still a big massive name within the Japanese music industry, and even if they do disband in the future their name will still be known as one of the top pop groups in Japan.

[Krusha]

the rose garden, 

 

Honestly I don't think anybody will ever top this. I thought Morning Musume had set the bar pretty damn high already when AKB48 was surging up in popularity years ago like 2008-2009 or so, but in very little time things started to show that what AKB48 was doing, was far beyond what Morning Musume were doing and had done (AKB48's exposure on TV, radio, magazines, media, social media, etc. was amazing). Even if they didn't sell as much in total as Morning Musume or had sales records like they did. But again, in time, this too changed, and AKB48 sat records with everything and anything. AKB48 as you say, aren't just a group, they're a phenomena.

 

As for how long AKB48 will last, that's a good question. I honestly don't know, and don't care to predict it, because Akimoto is impossible to predict. He has said everything from AKB48 being a 10-year project (but does this mean it will end in its 10th year, this year?), to him wanting to keep AKB48 running as long as it's fun, and he doesn't care if all they're doing is going back to theater in Akihabara only, together with handshake events.

 

What I do know, is that there's so much money involved in this today, that I cannot imagine that it'd be easy to just kill it like that, when there's so much money...

 

JennyInTokyo,

Yeah. They are massive. And let's not forget that they have three sister groups as well (and one more coming). Together the 48G family is huge (not just in mere numbers), they have a big influence. 

 

A couple of years ago, AKB48's crazy sales made Japan tip over to be the number one most selling music nation, ahead of the United States. Usually it's the other way around. I think this didn't last for too long, but there was an article about it.

 

I don't know what AKB48's total single and album sales are now (I should try to find out when 1st Week for Green Flash is in), as the Wiki rank of top 50 best selling artists of all time in Japan is outdated with regards to AKB48. On the outdated list they are Top 12. I do believe they've improved with a couple of spots on that list now. Whatever the case may be, when you look at the list, you have artists like B'z, Mr. Children, Hamasaki Ayumi, Southern All Stars, Dreams Come True, Matsutoya Yumi, GLAY, ZARD, Utada Hikaru, SMAP, Amuro Namie, and AKB48... That's pretty impressive company if you ask me!

[satchan]

I don't see why Aki-P would pull the plug on any of this. What's "rock bottom" for AKB? 500k? The system in place all but guarantees you market shattering number even in a "lean" market. You could make the case that SKE is struggling mightily with graduations to key members and that disbanding them would make sense from an artistic standpoint, but SKE members are as crucial a part in what helps push AKB to one million as NMB, HKT, or Team 8 members. And soon NGT members will be have a part in that as well.

[Ares13]

Actually.. it about timing..
AKB48 probably can never be beaten for CD sales..
Its about the economy and technology of that time.
AKB48 actually seat on a really good timimg..
Its the time when Japan ecomony is recovering and we are making good use of the internet..

Going further back in time like in the 70s and 80s.. Japan economy is booming.. the music industry is doing great but we do not have the mass use of the internet like social media and order system where now we can order single with just our phone..

The 90s and 2000s Japan economy was going down and the finally the one that killed everyone was 911 ..
So the music industry start to shrink .. the mass internet was still at it's infant stage.. there was mobile phone but far compare to the smart device now.. social media haven't really started..

Morning Musume actually couldn't be caught at a worst time.. where the technology is still developing and the world was in a downturn as US is fighting war after war when Japan economy was already in trouble..

AKB48 couldn't come at a better time when technology has became what we have now and Japan economy was finally doing well again..

I am trying not to do a business project report so I am cutting short everything..
I do think that somewhere down the road. Japan would follow the world and physical music product like CD will finally be a thing of the past.. so AKB48 would never be beaten at that department..

I don't read the news.. I only read this forum.. lol
But even so.. I still know that the region s unstable with China showing it's might to everyone..
So do not say that it is not possible for AKB48 sales to fall..
All we need is a war.. as there is just so much tension in the region..

My point is just simple.. this entertainment thing ain't the biggest thing...
There are other bigger factor in the world that has control of all these.. like economy, technology ..
Just saying in hope people would be mindful of it..

[Nao-kun]

I don't know what AKB48's total single and album sales are now (I should try to find out when 1st Week for Green Flash is in), as the Wiki rank of top 50 best selling artists of all time in Japan is outdated with regards to AKB48. On the outdated list they are Top 12

 

35.6 mil excluding Green Flash so currently 9th, 40 mil gets them 6th (which could theoretically happen before the end of the year).

[Krusha]

I don't see why Aki-P would pull the plug on any of this. What's "rock bottom" for AKB? 500k? The system in place all but guarantees you market shattering number even in a "lean" market. You could make the case that SKE is struggling mightily with graduations to key members and that disbanding them would make sense from an artistic standpoint, but SKE members are as crucial a part in what helps push AKB to one million as NMB, HKT, or Team 8 members. And soon NGT members will be have a part in that as well.

 
That's how I see it these days as well. Unless Akimoto has some grand idea that he wants to pull the plug, I don't see why it should happen, considering that while there is a decline, it is very slow, and I am pretty sure they could get at least 5 more good years out of the group.

 

And in terms of longevity, it's not just all about handshake event tickets or such. It's also about being lazy or not. I think management has been lazy with some releases, in terms of song, video, and lineup. Going the safe route. I would like more experimentation with senbatsu. Nothing extreme, but more rotation, reward both the girls and the fans, this way you create more excitement. And of course stages needs to come. Experiment more with PV's, let us expect the unexpected. Collaborate with Aphex Twin (ahem... scratch that one). In my mind there's not much they need to adjust, just a few things. 

 

But yeah, they got a lot going for them, and this is a cash-cow that you'd want to take care of.

 

Ares13, 

Morning Musume was in a market that sold much, much more than today, but it's true, they missed out on certain technology and huge presence in social media etc, whereas AKB48 arose in a weak market but managed to actually be the first idol group that became cool and hip with teenagers and young adults, of both genders. This made them accepted in a subculture where these groups usually aren't very prominent (mostly with people having special interest in them). And of course, then they took over the market completely.

 

Nao-Kun, 

Thanks for the update. I wonder how far up they can get on this list, especially considering that some of these artists, while icons, don't sell much at all these days. Top 5 would be amazing.

 

[Nao-kun]

Talking of records, with Green Flash being the 26th consecutive single to get #1 on weekly AKB is now lone record holder among all females for most consecutive #1 singles (leaving Hamasaki Ayumi behind who has 25).

[Juriken'14(狩)]

in the middle of writing my opinions about the sales, I suddenly have a deja vu feeling

after did some searching, I indeed said something very similar LOL

repost

I think AKB is now in deep trouble

they gave us too much what we want (like surprises in concerts, lots of handshake events, lives via youtube, etc)

and now they got stuck in the vicious cycle because they seems like no longer able to keep up with the "expectations" lol (last Sayonara Crawl handshake event was Feb 16, 2014 )

I hope AKS will see this single's close call sales as a warning: Stop taking the 1M sales for granted and assuming Mayu wotas will never let this single fail

yes, this time saved by those special signing events during the HS events on 8/30 (Day 5) and 8/31 (Last Day), and the sales adjustment

but next time they won't be so lucky

Aki-P and friends need to figure out what happened lol

 

and why the "double center + sister groups b-sides" formula isn't working as it should

 

or do that even matter at the first place

 

or because they left out AKB members in a AKB single to put sister groups members in it (I mean b-sides), and sister groups wotas are not buying anyway because they'll buy sister groups singles instead

 

or ..........

 

 

and yes, it'll be completely irrelevant for the next single

[Krusha]

The sister group thing is important I think:

 

Sister group fans in Japan buys for sure, but not all, and not enough. They care more about their own groups. And then you have the original AKB48 fans, who have girls they're fans of, yet which are left out of the single. So, not only can they not make senbatsu, now apparently they cannot even get onto the single as a whole. Where exactly are the AKB48 girls be, if not on the singles? Maybe they should show up in SKE48 singles? SKE48 main single song + Team A, Team K, Team B, and Team 4... That will surely please the SKE48 fans ...

[Ares13]

Lol.. this is getting to be like you think you going to drown when you step into a puddle of water ..

Day 6 - 9,941
8,248 to a million
Looks to be million .. as 8,248 is a small amount for AKB48 usually for final week consolidation ..
In the end .. you got to realise it is just 1 copy between 1 million and 999,999
And the way we are talking seem that 1 copy makes the difference if AKB48 is declining or not ..

[Ares13]

Guess that settle it ..
1.001 million sales .. so they didn't miss it ..
http://www.oricon.co...s/2049726/full/

Edit: .. sorry .. I think I may have been posting stuff that have been post already ..
because i just realize I post the day 6 sales when it is posted .. as I miss it earlier as I was reading with my phone ..
and I just realize this Oricon news was like release more than 16hours ago .. sorry about it ..

[Krusha]

Yes the 9,941 figure was day before, this is what Oricon showed today: #3 with 3,339 copies sold.

 

Anyways, with 1M confirmed, they've now sold twenty 1M+ selling singles in a row (with Beginner it's twenty-one in total).

[SayumiForever]

I heard they got an award for that lol! They barely made it, but whatever still happy!

[ShiningLight445]

The sister group thing is important I think:

 

Sister group fans in Japan buys for sure, but not all, and not enough. They care more about their own groups. And then you have the original AKB48 fans, who have girls they're fans of, yet which are left out of the single. So, not only can they not make senbatsu, now apparently they cannot even get onto the single as a whole. Where exactly are the AKB48 girls be, if not on the singles? Maybe they should show up in SKE48 singles? SKE48 main single song + Team A, Team K, Team B, and Team 4... That will surely please the SKE48 fans ...

 

That's what I have a problem with

 

Just once, I would love a single with AKB girls only. No kennin, no sister group girls (technically transfer girls still count as AKB since, well, they have been transferred). But anyway, it would be very interesting to see what the sales would end up like.

 

AKB is that big stepping stone for sister group girls to get a better chance at spotlight. But still - those AKB girls who only show up with Team songs are just as important too.

[Ares13]

OK.. weekly Oricon result..
No.1 with 1,001,393 sales..