[SINGLE] AKB48 39th Single - Green Flash 2015.03.04
#41
Posted 05 March 2015 - 02:02 AM
I remember when we were tracking Kokoro no Placard ..it was nail biting to the end before they got just 5K pass the million mark..
As I have said.. I feel that all the fans are gearing towards senbatsu election.. this single come too late and close to the senbatsu election single which is usually in May..
I feel that the fans would rather choose to push their idol for senbatsu election than to help upkeep AKB48 sales record.. Furthermore.. some may not be AKB48's fans but the sister group's fan..
I seriously think this time they would miss the million mark ..
That is unless it is a case of late delivery for day 1 and there are still a huge number of sales not taken in yet.. if not.. I would think this one would miss a million but the next one could reach 2 million..
#42
Posted 05 March 2015 - 02:33 AM
You could be right but it seems like right now AKB48 is on a slight decline. I'll be looking forward to the senbatsu and it's single to see how things turn out sales wise.
NECRONOMIDOL PASSCODE BABYMETAL ZOMBIE POWDER MANACLE
#43
Posted 05 March 2015 - 06:44 PM
Here's a comparison, Gurifura or Green Flash to the far right:
As you can see, there's a big drop. It compares best with Kokoro no Placard, and if it has same consistent sales as it had, then the 1M record will remain, but if not... then no I doubt it.
Day 1 - #1 860,269
Day 2 - #1 41,490
total so far - 901,759
Comparing with Kokoro no Placard as it barely got to 1 million ..
41,490 is still behind 57,799 ..
So they miss 11K on day 1 and 16K on day 2 ..
So this single is behind Kokoro no Placard by around 27K already ..
don't look like it is going to reach 1 million this time ..
#44
Posted 05 March 2015 - 08:26 PM
AKB would need to sell at least 139,704 copies in the next few days if they want to keep the 1mil 1st week streak
#45
Posted 05 March 2015 - 08:37 PM
I see math is not your strong point... As they've already sold 901,759 copies, they need to sell 98,241 copies to reach 1M. But for 1st week I think that's impossible. For total, it's likely, but hard.
#46
Posted 06 March 2015 - 03:44 AM
Nonetheless the numbers are still dominant compared to all other artists, I guess.
Dunno, if I make sense... 3:43 AM here and I need some sleep desperately.
#47
Posted 06 March 2015 - 11:27 AM
3rd day sales 16,869
KFC Ereki Suzuka Maeshika Dog song KLP Refrain Green Flash 13/08/21 13/10/30 13/12/11 14/02/26 14/05/21 14/08/27 14/11/26 15/03/04 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 火 1,095,894 1,020,800 *,916,912 *,970,413 1,462,156 *,871,923 1,017,160 *,860,269 水 *,*81,300 *,*53,379 *,*38,574 *,*44,403 *,*61,451 *,*57,799 *,*37,812 *,*41,490 木 *,*42,957 *,*62,134 *,*17,531 *,*19,890 *,*37,612 *,*19,396 *,*20,473 *,*16,869 金 *,*32,651 *,*17,824 *,*21,522 *,*16,121 *,*33,141 *,*14,792 *,*14,839 *,***,*** 土 *,*26,774 *,*17,050 *,*13,666 *,*13,732 *,*26,286 *,*13,368 *,*13,362 *,***,*** 日 *,*27,905 *,*14,686 *,*12,887 *,*12,092 *,*27,666 *,*15,420 *,*15,110 *,***,*** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 計 1,307,481 1,185,873 1,021,092 1,076,651 1,648,312 *,992,698 1,118,756 *,918,628 週 1,330,432 1,203,586 1,033,336 1,091,406 1,662,265 1,005,774 1,130,312 *,***,*** 累 1,549,343 1,294,197 1,086,491 1,153,906 1,787,367 1,061,760 1,195,973 *,***,***
#48
Posted 06 March 2015 - 07:12 PM
^I was just coming to post that. This single is in danger of being the one that ends the million in a week streak. 3 days and still not over 920k solidly. I hope this teaches Aki-p and co that the sister groups songs for b-sides format doesn't work. It hardly helped with Eien Pressure and it hardly helped with Suzukake Nanchara why did they think it was a good idea to use it a third time? Ugh. And to think if they had songs on it for team A, K, B and 4 they might just have avoided this crisis. Even if the songs were just average.
#49
Posted 06 March 2015 - 07:35 PM
They need 81,372 for the remaining 3 days + final consolidation count ..
which is not impossible because I did a 3 day + final consolidation row (X) of the past singles
KFC and Dog song got 87K so it is still possible .. but if course the rest of the figures show they average around 40K+ though
3rd day sales 16,869
KFC Ereki Suzuka Maeshika Dog song KLP Refrain Green Flash 13/08/21 13/10/30 13/12/11 14/02/26 14/05/21 14/08/27 14/11/26 15/03/04 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 火 1,095,894 1,020,800 *,916,912 *,970,413 1,462,156 *,871,923 1,017,160 *,860,269 水 *,*81,300 *,*53,379 *,*38,574 *,*44,403 *,*61,451 *,*57,799 *,*37,812 *,*41,490 木 *,*42,957 *,*62,134 *,*17,531 *,*19,890 *,*37,612 *,*19,396 *,*20,473 *,*16,869 金 *,*32,651 *,*17,824 *,*21,522 *,*16,121 *,*33,141 *,*14,792 *,*14,839 *,***,*** 土 *,*26,774 *,*17,050 *,*13,666 *,*13,732 *,*26,286 *,*13,368 *,*13,362 *,***,*** 日 *,*27,905 *,*14,686 *,*12,887 *,*12,092 *,*27,666 *,*15,420 *,*15,110 *,***,*** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 計 1,307,481 1,185,873 1,021,092 1,076,651 1,648,312 *,992,698 1,118,756 *,918,628 週 1,330,432 1,203,586 1,033,336 1,091,406 1,662,265 1,005,774 1,130,312 *,***,*** 累 1,549,343 1,294,197 1,086,491 1,153,906 1,787,367 1,061,760 1,195,973 *,***,*** (X) 87,330 49,560 48,075 41,945 87,093 43,580 43,311
#50
Posted 06 March 2015 - 08:01 PM
It's not impossible. But look at just the last two singles and their three final days.
Kokoro no Placard had a total of 43,580 for its last 3 days.
Kibouteki Refrain had 43,311.
Consolidation count for Kokoro no Placard: 13,076, and consolidation count for Kibouteki Refrain: 11,556.
In short: The total sales of of the three final days in the first week for both singles is pretty much the same, whereas the total actually is slightly higher for KR which came after KnP. However, consolidation count is lower for KR, as opposed to KnP.
Considering that Green Flash has a lower current three days total compared with KnP which had lower first three day total compared with KR, it means that not only does Green Flash need a higher three day final count of the week, but also a higher consolidation count.
And then when you consider an overall slow decline per release (more or less), this makes it close to impossible in my eyes. Not exactly and entirely impossible, but close to.
In short, if we estimate a final consolidation count of 40,000 for this single (it could go lower...), they need to sell no less than 13.8k per day for for the remaining three days (make it 14k). Otherwise no go.
#51
Posted 06 March 2015 - 08:13 PM
totally ashamed of myself as I does accounts so if I made this kind of beginner mistake at work .. I would get into big trouble >.<..
let me do a proper one ..
(X)= the final consolidation count
(Y)= Last 3 days total
(Z)= Last 3 days total + the final consolidation count
3rd day sales 16,869
KFC Ereki Suzuka Maeshika Dog song KLP Refrain Green Flash 13/08/21 13/10/30 13/12/11 14/02/26 14/05/21 14/08/27 14/11/26 15/03/04 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 火 1,095,894 1,020,800 *,916,912 *,970,413 1,462,156 *,871,923 1,017,160 *,860,269 水 *,*81,300 *,*53,379 *,*38,574 *,*44,403 *,*61,451 *,*57,799 *,*37,812 *,*41,490 木 *,*42,957 *,*62,134 *,*17,531 *,*19,890 *,*37,612 *,*19,396 *,*20,473 *,*16,869 金 *,*32,651 *,*17,824 *,*21,522 *,*16,121 *,*33,141 *,*14,792 *,*14,839 *,***,*** 土 *,*26,774 *,*17,050 *,*13,666 *,*13,732 *,*26,286 *,*13,368 *,*13,362 *,***,*** 日 *,*27,905 *,*14,686 *,*12,887 *,*12,092 *,*27,666 *,*15,420 *,*15,110 *,***,*** ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 計 1,307,481 1,185,873 1,021,092 1,076,651 1,648,312 *,992,698 1,118,756 *,918,628 週 1,330,432 1,203,586 1,033,336 1,091,406 1,662,265 1,005,774 1,130,312 *,***,*** 累 1,549,343 1,294,197 1,086,491 1,153,906 1,787,367 1,061,760 1,195,973 *,***,*** (X) 22,951 17,713 12,244 14,755 13,953 13,076 11,556 (Y) 87,330 49,560 48,075 41,945 87,093 43,580 43,311 (Z) 110,281 67,273 60,319 56,700 101,046 56,656 54,867
#52
Posted 06 March 2015 - 08:59 PM
KFC and Labrador Retriever are the only two songs on the list that got more than 81k. Every other song got less than 81k. Removing KFC and Labrador Retriever from the list, we get 67.2k -> 60.3k -> 56.7k -> 56.6k -> 54.8k, showing a clear trend of decline, and since this single needs 81k, I think it's pretty obvious this will be difficult
#53
Posted 07 March 2015 - 11:30 AM
I see math is not your strong point... As they've already sold 901,759 copies, they need to sell 98,241 copies to reach 1M. But for 1st week I think that's impossible. For total, it's likely, but hard.
Pretty rude thing to say considering the fact that I used only the first day sales (which were the only sales to be announced when I made the comment, day 2 wasn't even out yet) to make that analysis.
#54
Posted 07 March 2015 - 12:57 PM
Day 4 and things look a bit better, 50240 sold, bringing the total to 968868.
#55
Posted 07 March 2015 - 01:21 PM
I like "Green Flash" much more than "Kibouteki Refrain" so I'm sad the sales are not good :-/
#56
Posted 07 March 2015 - 03:32 PM
minaeshi,
Day 2 sales were out. And Ares13 posted them right above your post. Including the then total... (and even if you used 1st day sales only, the total with what you suggested would be 999,973, and not 1,000,000...)
Anyways, with the surprising 4th day sales, they need 31,132 for 1M, which means they should have above 15,566 for both remaining days. The consolidation count is also a factor, and if it follows the trend of previous consolidation figures, this should work...
Sales figures aside, what did you all think about SKE48's PV on the single? I want to see more of that stuff in releases. Not necessarily same theme, but a PV which is engaging like that.
#57
Posted 07 March 2015 - 03:37 PM
Hm, 50k is great and all, but it sounds like the result of whatever makes NMB have those random spikes several weeks into their singles chart runs recently. Handshake resale rounds or something. I'm thinking this single is in for a close call regardless of this 50k figure for the 4th day.
#58
Posted 08 March 2015 - 03:40 PM
Today with 12,943 and #2. Total of 981,811 so far. They need 18,189 to reach 1M (needs to happen with remaining one-day sales + consolidation figures).
#59
Posted 08 March 2015 - 09:33 PM
Judging by the sales, it looks impossible to get 1 million within 1 day
Set Made By Me
#60
Posted 09 March 2015 - 01:30 AM
Today with 12,943 and #2. Total of 981,811 so far. They need 18,189 to reach 1M (needs to happen with remaining one-day sales + consolidation figures).
Lol.. with the amazing 50K for day 4 ..
It almost certain they should get 1 million..
Looking at past recent sales.. they never got less than 10K for daily sales on week 1
And they never got less than 10K for consolidated figures..
So pretty much they would get 20K at worst..
And they only need 18,189 .. so that's pretty much going to be 1 million..
0 user(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users