149 replies to this topic

[Krusha]

 

Well, the record isn't "1 million in 1 week", but just "1 million", so I think it's safe to assume it's getting it even if it's in the second week. Mayu oshis won't let Mayu's victory single not reach it.

 
There isn't really any record left to beat for them anyway, they already got the record for most million selling singles, most consecutive million selling singles, highest ever one day sales, best selling female group of all times and so on.
 
Only ones left for singles would be most #1 singles and best selling single overall, first one will take a long time to reach, 2nd one won't ever be broken by anyone.

 

There's actually quite a few records left to break. Though you're right in that some of those are very hard to reach. But it's also about making sure that their own records are improved. But as far as records goes, there's this one for example:

"The best-selling artists by number of singles sold are B'z (35.443 million) in first place, AKB48 (28.78 million) in second place, Mr. Children (28.45 million) in third place, and Southern All Stars (25.179 million) in fourth place."

 

Then there's the total sales of singles and albums list, where I am not sure what AKB48 has at the moment, but the list above them looks like this: 

 

01. B'z: 81.46M+
02. Mr. Children: 58.42M
03. Hamasaki Ayumi: 50.38M
04. Southern All Stars: 48.08M
05. Dreams Come True: 43.33M
06. Matsutoya Yumi: 39.30M
07. GLAY: 38.20M
08. ZARD: 37.45M
09. Utada Hikaru: 35M
10. SMAP: 34.48M
11. Amuro Namie: 33.91M

 

It could be that AKB48 has already surpassed Amuro Namie, and I wouldn't be surprised if that has happened already. Do i think AKB48 can reach #1? Of course not. But, they can definitely move up several spots. Dropping 100K per single release however will be a good way of making sure that this will not happen.

 

Japan has a lot of records with regards to 1st day sales, 1st week sales, 1st month sales, yearly sales, and total sales. Single sales, album sales, DVD sales, BD sales, PB sales, quickest sold item, most sold item, combined sales, male artist/group, female artist/group, and so on. In short they thrive on having competition, and as we know, AKB48 has taken a huge row of records that nobody before them had managed to do, like them. So this is amazing. But I would like to see it continue, of course

 

Team_K_Oshi,

I don't think the sales drop has anything to do with Mayuyu being the center or the a-side's promotional campaign and video being similar to KFC's. I figure that has more to do with the issues in the 48 groups as a whole that management hasn't addressed. Over saturation of members, concurrencies for the sake of concurrencies, the same old stages performed in the theaters, relying on the popular members from the sister groups instead of pushing the girls who are supposed to be AKB's future, etc etc. The overly saturated idol market is also not in their favor right now what with people attuning more to the formula of other idol groups since the formula of the 48 groups has become rather dull and played out at this point.

 

Yeah there's many factors, unfortunately. The recent shuffle wasn't a good solution to issues they're having. Because the same issues persist. The theater stages are still being repeated with Akimoto's promise of new stages being extremely delayed by now. The concurrencies seem like a band-aid solution to fixing issues with teams not selling as much as they used to, the penant race is making no sense, many AKB48 single releases play it way too safe.

 

satchan,

If AKB wasn't continuously getting bailed out by sister groups in terms of concurrency and handshakes, where would they be right now? Would they even outsell SKE or NMB?

 

I think so. They're the primary 48 group, and the one with the most fans. When sales figures of the second biggest sister group SKE48 have dropped as much as it had, compared to what they used to sell, I don't think SKE48 is in a position where it can outsell AKB48. If the group was in its peak period, and somehow "everything was done right" for them, while "everything is going wrong" with AKB48, then maybe, just maybe it could happen. But how close have SKE48 been to selling just 871,000? AKB48 did that in one day. This is something I don't think SKE48 will ever reach. Their Choco no Dorei single got 671k total, and their Utsukushii Inazuma single got 661k total. About 200k less than KnP's current figure... And SKE48's current single is at 414k total so far, which is about 200k less than the two aforementioned singles totals...

[Krusha]

Today at #1 with 57,799 sold. 929,722 total so far. 70,278 needed to reach 1M.

 

Day 3 to 6 totals:

KFC: 130k
Ereki: 111k
Suzukake: 65.6k
Maeshika: 61.8

[AragonDx]

^

Looks like it will reach 1M within this week....

I hope so!

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

Well that 57k is helluva lot more than my hoped 45k. Hope tomorrow also exceeds my hopes (32k).

[Ares13]

They do look like they are on track to 1 million 

 

Honest..  we really got to realise that the main part and the people giving them the sales are Japanese.. 

They are not like us..  they get to meet the idols and there is no language barrier..  and probably the idols can recognise and may even remember their names.. 

 

Furthermore as I said.. most of the life of the fans are about the idols.. 

So whatever ideas you have about the single,  senbatsu or anything regarding the single actually does go out the window..

If you don't like a certain member being center or the senbatsu.. you still got to buy many of the single because there is no way to meet your idols..  you still got to go out with your friends when most of them are going to the event..  and when you meet your idols.. and talked to them.. all complains and unhappiness goes out the windows ..

 

All this is true if we are Japanese in Japan..  but we are not.. 

We only get to read stories from other fans, and reading G+ and other stuff behind a square box.. 

Even if we do go Japan and meet them.. it's only a one off thing.. not like the Japanese which is like a weekly pass time.. 

So we will never be able to remotely understand this..  we also are not brought up with the Japanese culture.. we may never get it.. 

 

To me.. it's not a decline .. it's about cut backs for the fans.. Which just a spending trend that effects everything.. 

[Krusha]

And yet, there are those of the fans that boycot certain releases due to certain things happening. Recently, from what I read, 55 fans cancelled their tickets for a Team N theater show, since it would also have Aanya's seitansai... Considering how difficult it is to get theater tickets, that tells you a little bit about their distaste with certain things.

 

Also, there are for example the SKE48 fans who have boycotted purchases due to this or that. So it's not so straightforward. Sometimes decisions have results in this fandom.

[satchan]

 

 

If AKB wasn't continuously getting bailed out by sister groups in terms of concurrency and handshakes, where would they be right now? Would they even outsell SKE or NMB?

 

I think so. They're the primary 48 group, and the one with the most fans. When sales figures of the second biggest sister group SKE48 have dropped as much as it had, compared to what they used to sell, I don't think SKE48 is in a position where it can outsell AKB48. If the group was in its peak period, and somehow "everything was done right" for them, while "everything is going wrong" with AKB48, then maybe, just maybe it could happen. But how close have SKE48 been to selling just 871,000? AKB48 did that in one day. This is something I don't think SKE48 will ever reach. Their Choco no Dorei single got 671k total, and their Utsukushii Inazuma single got 661k total. About 200k less than KnP's current figure... And SKE48's current single is at 414k total so far, which is about 200k less than the two aforementioned singles totals...

 

 

Right, but you aren't buying Choco no Dorei handshake slots expecting Oshima Yuko to be there while you buy KNP slots expecting Matsui Rena to be there. AKB sales are inflated from the get go which is why they have such an advantage over the sister groups and why they will never be overtaken by sister groups. That's what I'm saying. When you look at the first round of KNP's tickets and see it's the Yamamoto Sayaka show, how much would AKB singles sell if they couldn't rely on her and how much more would HKT sell if they could? You could easily push every group towards 1 million copies if you opened up the handshake doors to everyone and you could easily drop AKB's numbers if the most high profile members in every sister group wasn't also an AKB member. Of course, it's a one way street as that goes as Yukirin isn't even expected to go to NMB events where Sayaka doesn't have that luxury of choice.

 

Besides, if things get too "dire" regarding million selling singles, they can just open up Nogizaka slots to bleed out some more sales.

[Krusha]

All we're doing now, with regards to several points here, is to speculate, so we don't really know for sure. If we go with your line of thought, would the sister groups even be as popular if they were kept to "their own" and AKB48 to themselves? Is there a chance they'd be more isolated as such, instead of being a national idol group, they'd be regional idol groups? So yeah AKB48 benefits from being able to use the sister groups in their handshakes, but the sister groups also benefits from their involvement with AKB48. 

 

Even if there's a drop in sales, even if they're playing it safe, even if there's complaints about many things that management have done in all the groups (the negative stuff) I still must say that in all my years involved with Japanese entertainment, it is hard to come by another company that has been as good or better than Akimoto and his product. It is really remarkable what he has managed to do, and how his product has remained relevant for so many years. 

[Ares13]

And yet, there are those of the fans that boycot certain releases due to certain things happening. Recently, from what I read, 55 fans cancelled their tickets for a Team N theater show, since it would also have Aanya's seitansai... Considering how difficult it is to get theater tickets, that tells you a little bit about their distaste with certain things.

 

Also, there are for example the SKE48 fans who have boycotted purchases due to this or that. So it's not so straightforward. Sometimes decisions have results in this fandom.

ya .. but look at the situation .. cancelling the show is no lost .. they watch it many times already .. furthermore .. there is no more high touch .. ?

That's the difference with them and us .. we cancel 1 show .. we will never get it again .. but they will have plenty of chance to watch another day ..

and trust me those 55 will surely either buy HKT48 or NMB48 single like crazy when it comes ..

 

as for SKE48 .. its really the bonus issue .. they included photo into limited version which makes buying theater version less valuable ..

If they had stick to the same promotion bonus there should be less boycotted case

I can stop buying SKE48 single ..because I don't see and meet Mizuho .. but if I am a Japanese .. I would still buy tons of it .. because I wouldn't want her to think I have abandon her ..because she would remember she have such a fan by now if I have went hundreds or thousands of handshake with her since her KKS ..right?

 

but no .. I am not saying there is no exit ..even though ..its unlikely ..

because of community .. I never quit hello project even after years of low profile ..

I don't like the songs .. I am sick of the same thing and I don't like their super money grabbing attitude of coming up with just items after items with very little content ..

but even though I said I quit ..I can't because I can't quit H!O ..LOL

the same with AKB48 group .. almost all my friends are AKB48 group fans .. OMG ..

but I quit TGS recently with absolute ease .. because they don't have a substantial community that I belong to ..

 

But its possible for people to stop .. for many different reasons .. differing from people to people ..

Even if there is a decline .. it will be slow and not obvious .. I think you would not see a sudden decrease in fans ..

 

===================================================================

 

about sister group .. their destiny is tie ..

You want an example .. look upwards here ..

when H!P decline .. everyone decline and when they raises again everyone raises together ..

 

You got to realise that if AKB48 decline so will the rest ..

meaning if AKB48 don't use their sisters ..

it will trigger a chain reaction which will sink the whole 48G ..

they are depending on each other ...

I do think ya .. if AKB48 don't use their sister group .. they will sell less for sure ..

but the sister will also sell less .. too

 

ya .. you can't see Oshima Yuko if you buy a SKE48 single back then .. but you get to see a SKE48 idol who you got interested because of an AKB48 handshake/event

yes ..because of this AKB48 will always be on top .. but it help spread success ..

Fukuoka .. has plenty of idols .. they have plenty of big population (huge number of members) groups and multi gens that perform regularly .. they have some success there but they can't really get big in Japan ..

then enter HKT48 .. which with any sense is like the rest of the idol groups there .. there is nothing special about them except the "48" and that is what makes the difference ..

look at their success now ..ya you can say its Sasshi but would Sasshi be any use if she was not a AKB48 member ?

and in turn .. Sasshi did get even more successful and contributed the most to AKB48 best selling single because she got the most votes from the single and centered one of AKB48 most successful single..

but you must realize none of these would happen if the 48 groups are isolated from each other ..

 

look at it this way .. if you got a million selling group spear heading your promotion .. those under them will get the benefits ..

the problem is ..how do you get a million selling group ? ..that is tougher ..

the sisters may never overtake them but .. everyone will benefit .. because people love supporting winners ..

if you got no champion .. you will struggle .. because you may have 5 mediocre group that no one would support full time and they would not progress ..

If you sink AKB48 sales .. you would not get a few more million sales group .. you get a few groups that can't sell a million ..

and every idol group in Japan can't sell 1 million .. so anyone and anything goes ..

 

saying that spreading the members will create more million groups is as simple minded to say if we have a single that feature all groups AKB48, SKE48, NMB48 and HKT48 ..

they should sell more than 2 million .. sorry it don't this way and neither would it work the other way ..

 

I know .. people think moving popular member everywhere will achieve the same result ..

but we got something call sub unit .. and if you notice sub unit tend to do badly in a long run ..

meaning .. people don't print money you can't sustain duplicate ..

If you look at Mayu votes in term of sales it close to 160K .. but her solo single can't even get close ..

maybe one time .. people can do it but over time people will get bored with over supply and everything will collapse..

They got to supply in right amount to maintain it ..

 

relationship works .. do you think people will know E-girls if its not related to Exile ?

or would Nogizaka46 be as successful if they got no relation to AKB48?

 

quite simply .. when we look at any idol collective or project .. they must have a successful "flagship" if not they will never get there ..

all BIG idol collective or project have flagship .. and they feed off each other ...

yes other group don't use their sister like AKB48 but they are not as successful as AKB48 group ..right?

 

recently SUPER GiRLS just stop their decline when they finally use their "sisters" .. they use their whole organization iDOL Street ..

The one time Momoclo Z rival .. lost to Team Syachihoko the Momoclo Z baby sister in sales on the same week .. but now they are almost back on track ..

Then the next news I heard is GEM sold out their 1st solo live show really fast ..

 

============================================

 

Hmm .. think I wrote a bit too much ..

but lastly .. there is something that we cannot really reason ..

 

we like to talk about moving members around for more success ..

we have the BIG shuffle .. and so far .. it look like a BIG mistake ..

 

Can anyone tell me which member that move downwards or concurrent downwards are finding greater success?

we got people like Suuchan who seem to lose all her fans when she join SKE48 ..

 

we are seeing nothing but drop in sales after the BIG shuffle ..

it seem that moving upwards work .. but moving downwards don't  ..

 

Yui didn't seem to make make any difference to NMB48 sales when she is there and she didn't seem to get any more popular after that ..

 

anyway .. in conclusion ..

like it or not ..

I don't even think AKB48 will get any significant lost if they don't include the sisters ..

some AKB48 girls will get more popular and some sister groups girls will get less popular ..

live will go now .. except the sister groups may fall ..

and sending AKB48 member downwards wouldn't help because we already know it does not work ..

but that may be a truth to much for some to handle ..

[sidhme]

Many good points on this page. Of course it's speculation, but that doesn't necessarily make them inaccurate.

 

I think that what Akimoto has put together, is an excellent example of how a whole can be much more than the sum of it's parts.

Yes, AKB was and still is the flagship of this idol armada, but it is the dynamics of all the groups together that makes the 48G able to sustain it's success for such a long time.

For instance, by keeping sister groups, like SKE, in the "shadow" of AKB, makes SKE-fans rally to overtake big sister wherever they can. This means more revenue for SKE, and ultimately the 48G. It doesn't really matter that some of it has moved from AKB to SKE, what matters is that it hasn't moved anywhere outside 48G.

 

Krusha mentioned Akimoto and his product,

Now, I've only followed all this since winter 11/12, but from what I've learnt about Japanese entertainment, and from what I know about western entertainment, especially the music industry which I know quite well, Akimoto has created a monster! And how he has managed to adapt and redefine that, so as to stay relevant for such a long time, is nothing short of genious.

 

Even so, all entertainment products have an expiration date, we just can't tell until it's passed. I don't think the 48G is an exception, but I'd be very surprised if that time is now.

It's hard to view 871,832 physical copies sold in one day in 2014 as anything but successful, even if it is a drop.

[Krusha]

Today at #1 with 19,396 copies sold. Total of 949,118 so far. 50,882 needed for 1M.

 

Day 4 to 6 totals:

KFC: 87,330
Ereki: 49,560
Suzukake: 48,075
Maeshika: 41,945

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

^I wasn't going to look at the sales figure for today until I had breakfast, but I did and ouch that figure hurts. I hope tomorrow is turn around day. At least 25k...please!

[Krusha]

Don't think that will happen at all. I can hope, but the reason I've posted the day x to day y sales for each day, is to compare the sales, and as you can see, there's a decline. And the trend is that the next day sales is almost always lower than the sales of the day before. Hence, 25k for tomorrow I don't think will happen at all. This single needs 51k for 1M for the remaining three days, but when the last three singles all managed to rake in less than that in their last three days, why should this single manage that?

[Ares13]

ok ..I am just using the data given to me by Krusha ..
I did an average of all the percentages in relation between the 1st day and the total week 1 and it show that it would not reach 1 million
Even if you use the most optimistic view of 1st day 82% of the total, you would still only get 996,988
If you use the percentage of the Day 2+3 percentage to Day 1 .. you will find that it's very close between the average percentage forecast 9.07% to the actual figures 9.44%..
furthermore .. there is a 1.52% to spare ..
So the figures are against AKB48 getting 1 million on week 1 ..

 
Anyway .. I just came back from work and I am am having a headache .. I do Accounts so grinding spreadsheet is my job ..  I am the last person to leave the office for 3 days in a row .. >.<
So ya .. this is a lazy spreadsheet ..  hope it make sense ..

[Krusha]

Yeah this data over time, such as 1st day sales, 2-6 day sales, etc. helps. Of course we must take into account the possibility of something random happening, but then we're not trying to predict the future either, just offering the most likely outcome based on statistical analysis more or less.

[Ares13]

^ .. ya random like the passion and dedication of the fans ..

come on .. if we are in Japan .. I would hit the store over the weekend and get a few more copies ..
The one with Handshake tickets is still available or get another chance for more photos collection ..
whatever it is ..there is no reason not to get more if you are a reasonable fan of AKB48 ..

[minaeshi]

We have to remember though, this is the first single without Yuko (election ticket single doesn't count). So its most probably an indication that most of her fans left with her. She got over 100k votes in the last election, so her fans must have contributed at least 50k sales to each single she was in. 

Also, there may be fans of girls like Jurina, Sasshi etc who are kinda upset that their oshi didn't win, so they might not have bought this single? That's a possibility.

 

I still think this single will reach the 1mil mark in the first week, or if not than at least 995k  

[Nao-kun]

For instance, by keeping sister groups, like SKE, in the "shadow" of AKB, makes SKE-fans rally to overtake big sister wherever they can. This means more revenue for SKE, and ultimately the 48G. It doesn't really matter that some of it has moved from AKB to SKE, what matters is that it hasn't moved anywhere outside 48G.

 

Dunno, just look at Nogi, they are kept far more separate, but tread right in NMB and SKE waters in terms of popularity and sales, so it doesn't really seem to make all that much of a difference if you put a "in the shadow" or "rival" label on the group.

[Ares13]

^
^ .. ya .. I think Yuko grad does make a difference .. and all the big names who have left does too ..
But I think AKB48 has done very well the survive those grad ..
I do think there will be a drop but I doubt it would be significant ..
The only one affected should be those fans who are solely fans of Yuko ..which are rare in 48G ..
I think most have many girls that they like .. they would only become a 1 oshimen person during the election ..
that's the reason why we see some girls that are really hot but fall flat on election ..because they are no.2, 3, 4, ....
I think fans buy singles for a range of girls instead of just 1 ..depending on their fandom and agenda ..

but the point about not liking the winner is more unlikely .. because it is a fan choice ..
they got beaten fair and square .. and they will just go on and try harder next year ..
There seem to be less sore losers in Japan than maybe rest of the world ..
It like when Sasshi won .. the insults that follows were crazy but the sales were even crazier ..

^ .. lol .. there are some points that I am not sure that they planned so ..
Like Nogizaka46 .. they are declare to be a rival group .. but .. they seem to fail being the rival ..
some how they does nothing to make them look like rival .. Nogizaka46 just became a rest stop for fans who are tired of the 48G before returning to 48G ..

I think the sister rivalry is intended because ..its always been around .. the management just got to balance it to get the most out of this rivalry ..
they kill it too much .. people will give up the fight .. but you let them win .. they will move on after winning ..

=================

Anyway .. I do think there is a decline in the whole industry .. or the money is spreading from the bigger groups to the smaller groups ..or both
as the industry is saturated now .. the small groups are all doing better and better and more groups are coming up ..

I just came to realise .. H!P are also dropping sales .. because of the recent crash in sales by S/mileage ..
It was surprising because they just came out from their Budokan which was very inspiring .. but instead of doing better or at least maintaining their sales .. they crash down ..

but in all ... I just think its because it's summer ..
This summer is strange .. people seem to spend less on the big groups .. or on singel
I just its because of all the other idol events that are available now ..
there are so many events to go to .. and shows to watch that .. blowing tons of money on single alone ain't the best idea ..

I do feel that the traditional way we view fans as in hardcore vs causal fans has change ..
the two seem to merge .. so we actually do have many causal fans who would go for many idols and be really hardcore when they wanted to ..
but the point is .. they don't print money unfortunately ..so they can only shift resources

[TRiNuVie]

The song isn't selling as much cause it's bad and it's using KFC's promotion strategies like people are lamb and are gonna fall for it again.   

 

I don't know. The election itself started with these guys screaming and whatnot trying to make the girls get over the Iwate incident... how come the outcome of that election is this song?

Why couldn't they get Nogizaka's new song? Its lyrics are much more profound* (How many blue skies have there been? Don’t let your youth pass you by / Even if you’re caught up in your own life, try looking up from time to time (at the cloudless sky) / Don’t let the person you are right now go to waste) and the tune it's so hopeful it makes you wanna root for them.   

 

 

But no... they had to get the kiddy song with the payayayayay.   

 

It's like, when Rihanna came back after her... distirbing moments, she did great with Russian Roulette. It would have been weird as hell for her to come back with something like We Found Love or whatever. COHESION!   

 

*Translation of Nogi's song by Kanki at Stage48.