There's no issue in making theories and discussing about it since there won't be any real way to know what happened Ares.
But what we are trying to explain is that the theory you have makes no sense at all, especially from the business perspective you are defending.
well of course it makes no sense to you when you are totally sold on them being great management ..
Furthermore, you are looking at them like the management knows everything before they make any decision. It is possible to have management decision which look good on the top level or surface but turn out to be bad later on the lower levels and execution.
And again, you are not suppose to think like you know their secret plan, and talk about the negative impact on the fans because we are suppose to not know and believe that everything happen because it happens ..
I am just saying that it would look good for them on the surface and on paper, to get rid of her early so that they can start afresh with this "new" system going into the HelloCon..
As we already agree that all idol who are leaving does slack off a bit nearing the end, so usually, its up to the management to let it be. But what if the management don't want to let it be?
Furthermore, the news come after KF doing badly for their single and their "new system" transfer announcement ..
Basically, this year has been bad .. running on plenty of negative, negative and more negative .. they really do not need to keep reminding the fans of negative stuff ..
well.. could it be ego on the management part? ..well that is also possible ..
You got to realize that it is not a happy thing for the management to have a member leaving when the group is still trying to establish themselves ..
Furthermore, the management have already decide to take apart CG which looks to be under-performing for their single sales with sub 30K 1st week even with Momochi
Taking apart CG would mean that H!P will not have any sub 30K groups with every group selling well past 30K week 1
Then come this girl who quit on them and they could see her as the problem as the sales of KF went 21K for 1st week because they can't be blaming themselves..
So maybe they see KF whose sales drop so much and the members seem so unmotivated, that they just use Rio who is going anyway and probably look least motivated, and make her the example ..
(*note- I use Oricon result as it is comparable as all come under the new rule now)
So if you couple in with everything, it is possible that they took the chance and get rid of her early .. but of course they ran into some problems later but its nothing that they can't handle
So I am not saying that Rio firing is a grand plan .. I am just saying that it may be a management decision on the fly which is not nice and can be avoided ..