Speculations for 2022

post your predictions and speculations for h!p in 2022, and feel free to reflect on past predictions if you want

my speculations from last year, correct in green, incorrect in red, anything else in yellow, comments marked with a slash -

i don't have many predictions for next year tbh
 
morning:

• rio superpush
• more 15ki push in general
• god i want a mei anime tie in so bad like verilian's mentioned
• another graduation but i don't know who
• with the way things have been going i don't see the group reverting back to a trio front with everyone else as backing vocals, i can see them pushing a couple girls more post-maagrad but maybe lines and screentime will stay as somewhat balanced as they are now. though it's definitely wishful thinking considering morning's track record with this

angerme:

• more turnover that ufp continues to try to mitigate by adding more members
• continued 9ki push
• someone in 9ki gets a photobook
• album maybe

juice=juice:

• new members grow in popularity
• ichika continues to show fans that she's on a honorin level of good at everything
• god please no more grads
• reirei and riai take up more singing lines (this is just my flimsy hope that ruru won't be run into the ground next year)
• album

tsubaki factory:

• they continue to ride their 2021 momentum but probably not anything spectacular in terms of growth
• graduations of first gen members (though i hope not)
• i can see them getting 2 singles if ufp wants to keep up the momentum but i don't have much faith that ufp wants anything but the opposite of outside growth for their groups

beyooooonds:

• one single. that is all
• yeah sorry to be a doomer but i don't have much hope for them anymore lol
• more photobooks
• another stage play
• maybe increased youtube/tiktok activities? anything more than blogs and instagram during the drought is all i ask for

ocha norma:

• decently successful debut, triple a-side single
• i'd predict their concept but i don't really have a vision for it besides what i'd want for them personally. the covid/internet thing they have going is kinda interesting though
• kirara or madoka for leader
• no solidified center/face of the group, probably rotating between 2-3 members instead

kenshuusei:

• someone who's been around for a while leaves
• mifu debut (PLEASE)
• maybe with ochan's debut the focus on the kss from the last couple of years decreases a bit, but i don't see harodori ending or anything

Thanks Rurupedia!

 

For this year:

 

Morning Musume:

-PonPon or Ayumi graduating at some point.

-I dream of great songs as the one around 2015-2017 but I think they’ll keep the same type of songs.

-Rio is the new ace.

 

Angerme:

-No more graduation (PLEASE!)

-No new members

-New single at the beginning of the year (+ 1 album maybe).

-One of the 9kies releases a PB

 

Juice=Juice:

-No graduation in 2022.

-3^rd album (+ 1 single maybe)

-No new members

 

Tsubaki Factory:

-No graduation in 2022

-1 Single

-Marine and Yuumi become strong visual members, Shiori and Runo are pushed vocally.

-I still dream of Kishimon, Maopin, or Kisora getting a PB. 

 

Beyooooonds:

-2 singles this year (PLEASE!)

-More musicals and commercials

-More PB (hope for Saya)

 

Ocha Norma:

-2 singles (It’s more a dream but…)

-Their 1^st single is doing well

-Center position is divided between few members

-I think they will have a kind of Kobushi-style image

-Kirara, Nanami, or Natsume get a PB

 

KSS:

-New KSS at some point in the year.

-I’m scared that some girls may leave.

-No one debut.

 

Other:

Ota will not be back.

Risa to release her 1^st single in summer.

Kanatomo to release her 1^st album, but not before summer since Karin releases hers in spring

Maa-chan to produce songs and/or release a single later this year.

I don’t know if we can expect Kanatomo and Maa to join the M-Line concerts immediately because of their health issues, but it would be great! 

 

These are my predictions for the most part, not hopes, so some of this is probably going to be a bit depressing.

Morning Musume '22
- I don’t see anyone graduating except maybe Akane. I think it’s pretty obvious by now that none of the senior girls are going to leave unless forced to somehow and management isn’t going to force them out. I do see PonPon and Ayumi leaving in 2023; this might get announced near the end of 2022.

- They might run an audition for a single-person gen because 13 is an awkward number to choreo for after they've been 14 for years

- They get a new commercial tie-in
- Miki gets a moderate push; she gets to produce another thing
- They start featuring Yokoyan on more TV shows
- Rio gets more magazine work
- MEI ANIME TIE IN. This is not so much a prediction as a manifestation
- They continue to release singles in the same tired style, but maybe with slightly fresher arrangements.

ANGERME
- No grads or auditions for once

- But if someone surprise graduates Hinoha gets added as a new member
- They release another banger single
- Another commercial tie-in
- Shion and Yuki do a duet at some point

- Shion and Yuki get pushed

- Shion gets a PB

- Wakana continues to remain smol

Juice=Juice
- Akari grad. She stays with UF and starts doing stage plays or something. Manaka becomes the new leader with Ruru as sub.
- Ichika starts her own youtube series or omake corner or something
- They release more ballads and covers as part of their A-sides and I continue to be disappointed by their new singles (sorry if people like the ballads and covers, personal preferences)

- Irie Risa turns out to have a lot of personality once she settles in

Edit: they run another audition for J=J once Akari graduates.

Tsubaki Factory
- No additions, no grads
- Some of the girls start getting outside work. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Marine or Yuumi who get outside work first.
- They continue to push Kiki
- They get featured on more TV shows outside of HP produced shows

BEYOOOOONDS
- Another stage-play, another commercial tie-in, another single single year

- Maybe management will do something more for them

OCHA NORMA
- They win that best new artist award that the HP debuts tend to win
- They’ve got a cute concept. Maybe quirky. Not like chaotic/cool quirky like Angerme or chaotic/dramatic quirky like Beyonds, but cute quirky kind of like Country Girls.
- They don’t sell as well as Beyonds’ debut single (because of the pandemic) but they do decently well

Kenshuusei
- New girls get added
- Sakura leaves and shows up in an idol group outside of HP

Haven't done this before, but what the hey

 

H!P:

There will be a third Solo Fes that will run over 7 hours because H!P is bloody huge now

 

MM:

Will not substantially change their sound and will continue to sell well enough that management won't care

Ponpon will both dethrone Sayu as longest serving Musume, but at least one of them will graduate shortly thereafter

At least one graduation that is probably not Ponpon because above

No 16th gen this year, but possibly an audition near the end of the year if more than one member graduates or plans to

Rio and Panda Goddess will release their third photo books

Homa-chan will kill my soul once again by not releasing a second photo book

Eripon will not finally release a third photo book unless she graduates

 

Angry:

There will be at least one grad

There will be another new gen

Take-chan will not release a photo book

Shion and/or Kero will release a photo book

Possibly 9th Gen book

 

Juice:

Finally, a third album, with all the half-dozen-plus different line-ups since their second

Unfortunately, the album means we won't get another single for almost a year from the last one

No line-up changes, unless Aari decides to only stay as leader for a year or so and graduates either the end of the year or early next year

Yumeriai will not get either a gen photo book or individual photo books

If any of the new girls gets a photo book it will be Ichika

 

Tsubaki:

Musically, I don't have a bloody clue

But Kishimon, Niinu and Maopin will continue to not get photo books

 

BEYOOOOOOOOOOOO...:

They will get all of two singles this year

There will not be a second album

They will do more musicals (this is almost cheating, I admit)

Miimii will not release a visual book consisting of her wearing lots of  adorable frilly pink outfits

Uutan gets a second photo book, possibly Yuhane too

Honopi gets a photo book thus completing the SeasoningS trinity

 

OCHA NORMA:

I want to guess that they get either a sort of Shouwa-idol type sound or a Princess Princess 80's rock type sound, but I'm sure those are both dead wrong

They will release only one single this year

Kirara finally gets a photo book 

 

KSS:

I assume more members at some point

 

 

I do hope to be wrong about some of these...

Haven't done this before, but what the hey

 

H!P:

There will be a third Solo Fes that will run over 7 hours because H!P is bloody huge now

 

 

I dread and look forward to this in equal measure.

 

^{I did the math and it comes out to be about 4 hours of just performing time if you assume the average performance is 3.5 minutes long. If you add in all the commentary and pre-show and post-show stuff it really is going to be like over 7 hours long...!!!}

Kenshuusei
- New girls get added
- Sakura leaves and shows up in an idol group outside of HP

Maybe a K-pop group I guess 

MM:

No 16th gen this year,

 

Juice:

No line-up changes,

 

One day in and already wrong, wouldn't have it any other way.

Momusu:

>4 16th gen Momusu debutants coming out of the Momusu/J=J joint audition (3 from outside H!P, 1 from KSS)

>Matsubara Yulia being the KSS member debuting in Momusu's 16th gen after the auditions

>Someone from a unique prefecture being one of the outsider 16th gen debutants (I guess Okinawa's a safe bet bc I don't think anyone from that prefecture's debuted in a H!P group before)

>3 new singles like in 2015 (one double A-side with the current lineup + two triple A-sides after the 16th gen members're announced)

>The first new single's A-sides not involving Tsunku's work at all and instead being produced by some K-pop producer

>Eripon and Odasaku graduating near the end of this year w/ Fukuchan's graduation announcement coming at the H!P New Year's concert

>A 17th Momusu studio album being announced near the end of this year

>Momusu 25th I guess? (I mean they did a Momusu 20th back in 2017-18 AFAIK so...  )

 

Anju:

>2 new singles like in 2016-19

>Takechan and Rikako announcing their grads near the end of this year's H!P fall tour w/ their actual grad concerts sometime in 2023

>9ki + Peipei push (first photobooks, more focus in singles... you name it)

>Another CF song w/ Ora2

 

J=J:

>3 new J=J debutants coming out of the Momusu/J=J joint audition (2 from outside H!P, 1 from KSS)

>Hashida Honoka being the KSS member debuting in J=J after the auditions

>3 new singles like in 2014?

 

TF/Byonz:

>A second Byonz album

>2 new TF singles like in 2017-18/2020

MM : 

 

- More grads. Either Ayumin or PonPon or all three

- No big push, Maachan's lines will be splitted between everyone, with more focus on Sakura, Mizuki and Miki.

- Rio's push continue, both visually and in term of solo lines, but nothing major until someone graduates

- 16th gens gives us more background members so Homare, Erina and Chisaki won't feel too lonely. 

 

JJ :

 

- Since none of the new members are utahime, i expect more great singers from the new auditions

- I don't see any graduations happening this year, but who knows

- Hopefully they'll use Ichika's english skills.

 

Angerme :

 

- It's Angerme, so more grads and more new members

- I think every 9ki will get a push. Sure, Yuki getting all Momona's lines means they didn't get their chance to get more lines, but Wakana is praised for her singing, Shion is a good performer, and while i think they mainly added Rin as visual and for her personality, a lot of fans are starting to notice her and praises her for her improvements, so i can see her getting more in the future.

 

Tsubaki Factory :

 

- I don't expect anything major for the group, outside of maybe a 2nd Budokan. 2ki is a success so they're definitly gonna use them more, but Tsubaki rarely puts all the focus on one new shining toy, so everyone will probably get more attention. 

- No grads. Not this year anyway. we might get an annoucement, but right now i think 2ki were more "Let's forget about those stupid things that were said about the girls and level up the group" than "OMG EVERONE WANTS TO LEAVE" !

 

Beyoooonds : 

 

- As much as we love them and even if they are popular, i don't expect more than 1 single, unfortunatly. Not just for Beyooooonds, but for every groups. I think that's how it's gonna be for the now...

 

Ocha Norma :

 

- I can see Natsume, Kirara, Momo and Kanami being front members. Other than that... i'm not sure what to expect from this group yet so 

For Morning Musume:

 

- I feel like Mizuki and PonPon are gonna graduate or Ayumi is and PonPon is staying to be a leader for a year or two before she graduates. I can see either scenario.
- I can see Rio getting pushed further

- I think they are going to continue with the same formula for their songs, in terms of sharing lines, I think 2 members will get pushed now Maa-chan is no longer a member.
- I think Miki will also get a push too.

 

 

 

Haven't done this before, but what the hey

 

H!P:0/1

There will be a third Solo Fes that will run over 7 hours because H!P is bloody huge now Dammit

 

MM: 6/10

Will not substantially change their sound and will continue to sell well enough that management won't care  I'm going to say correct, though I actually love the new single

Ponpon will both dethrone Sayu as longest serving Musume, but at least one of them will graduate shortly thereafter 1/2

At least one graduation that is probably not Ponpon because above

No 16th gen this year, but possibly an audition near the end of the year if more than one member graduates or plans to Both correct and wrong

Rio and Panda Goddess will release their third photo books Of course the half of that one I'm indifferent towards was right

Homa-chan will kill my soul once again by not releasing a second photo book But I'm cool with that being wrong

Eripon will not finally release a third photo book unless she graduates

 

Angry: 1/5

There will be at least one grad

There will be another new gen

^How is it even possible to be wrong about those two? Angerme with no lineup changes? Is this the Twilight Zone?

Take-chan will not release a photo book

Shion and/or Kero will release a photo book

Possibly 9th Gen book

 

Juice: 4/6

Finally, a third album, with all the half-dozen-plus different line-ups since their second

Unfortunately, the album means we won't get another single for almost a year from the last one

No line-up changes, unless Aari decides to only stay as leader for a year or so and graduates either the end of the year or early next year

Yumeriai will not get either a gen photo book or individual photo books 1/2 right or 2/3 right? We'll say 2... But I can absolutely live with being wrong about this one...

If any of the new girls gets a photo book it will be Ichika I said IF, so I'll ignore

 

Tsubaki: 2/3

Musically, I don't have a bloody clue

But Kishimon, Niinu and Maopin will continue to not get photo books 2/3

 

BEYOOOOOOOOOOOO...: 3/7

They will get all of two singles this year Eventually this will happen

There will not be a second album

They will do more musicals (this is almost cheating, I admit)

Miimii will not release a visual book consisting of her wearing lots of  adorable frilly pink outfits Strictly speaking, this is correct...

Uutan gets a second photo book, possibly Yuhane too

Honopi gets a photo book thus completing the SeasoningS trinity

 

OCHA NORMA: 0/2

I want to guess that they get either a sort of Shouwa-idol type sound or a Princess Princess 80's rock type sound, but I'm sure those are both dead wrong 

They will release only one single this year

Kirara finally gets a photo book 

 

KSS:

I assume more members at some point I think there were? But I'm too lazy to double check and that's barely a prediction

 

I figure the year's close enough to over and I'm bored, so I'm gonna call this. 

 

RIP Solo Fes 

 

 

These are my predictions for the most part, not hopes, so some of this is probably going to be a bit depressing.

Morning Musume '22
- I don’t see anyone graduating except maybe Akane. I think it’s pretty obvious by now that none of the senior girls are going to leave unless forced to somehow and management isn’t going to force them out. I do see PonPon and Ayumi leaving in 2023; this might get announced near the end of 2022.

- They might run an audition for a single-person gen because 13 is an awkward number to choreo for after they've been 14 for years

- They get a new commercial tie-in (can't remember if they did)
- Miki gets a moderate push; she gets to produce another thing (can't remember)
- They start featuring Yokoyan on more TV shows
- Rio gets more magazine work
- MEI ANIME TIE IN. This is not so much a prediction as a manifestation
- They continue to release singles in the same tired style, but maybe with slightly fresher arrangements.

4/8

ANGERME
- No grads or auditions for once

- But if someone surprise graduates Hinoha gets added as a new member
- They release another banger single
- Another commercial tie-in
- Shion and Yuki do a duet at some point

- Shion and Yuki get pushed

- Shion gets a PB

- Wakana continues to remain smol
4/7

Juice=Juice
- Akari grad. She stays with UF and starts doing stage plays or something. Manaka becomes the new leader with Ruru as sub.
- Ichika starts her own youtube series or omake corner or something
- They release more ballads and covers as part of their A-sides and I continue to be disappointed by their new singles (sorry if people like the ballads and covers, personal preferences)

- Irie Risa turns out to have a lot of personality once she settles in

Edit: they run another audition for J=J once Akari graduates.

2/5

Tsubaki Factory
- No additions, no grads
- Some of the girls start getting outside work. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Marine or Yuumi who get outside work first.
- They continue to push Kiki
- They get featured on more TV shows outside of HP produced shows
2/4

BEYOOOOONDS
- Another stage-play, another commercial tie-in,another single single year

- Maybe management will do something more for them
1.67/2

OCHA NORMA
- They win that best new artist award that the HP debuts tend to win
- They’ve got a cute concept. Maybe quirky. Not like chaotic/cool quirky like Angerme or chaotic/dramatic quirky like Beyonds, but cute quirky kind of like Country Girls.
- They don’t sell as well as Beyonds’ debut single (because of the pandemic) but they do decently well
1.5/3

Kenshuusei
- New girls get added
- Sakura leaves and shows up in an idol group outside of HP

Wow, about half are correct and half are not. lol it would be nice to see a thread with 2023 speculations.

 

For this year:

 

Morning Musume:

-PonPon or Ayumi graduating at some point.

-I dream of great songs as the one around 2015-2017 but I think they’ll keep the same type of songs.

-Rio is the new ace.

 

Angerme:

-No more graduation (PLEASE!)

-No new members

-New single at the beginning of the year (+ 1 album maybe).

-One of the 9kies releases a PB

 

Juice=Juice:

-No graduation in 2022.

-3^rd album (+ 1 single maybe)

-No new members

 

Tsubaki Factory:

-No graduation in 2022

-1 Single

-Marine and Yuumi become strong visual members, Shiori and Runo are pushed vocally.

-I still dream of Kishimon, Maopin, or Kisora getting a PB. 

 

Beyooooonds:

-2 singles this year (PLEASE!)

-More musicals and commercials

-More PB (hope for Saya)

 

Ocha Norma:

-2 singles (It’s more a dream but…)

-Their 1^st single is doing well

-Center position is divided between few members

-I think they will have a kind of Kobushi-style image

-Kirara, Nanami, or Natsume get a PB

 

KSS:

-New KSS at some point in the year.

-I’m s cared that some girls may leave.

-No one debut.

 

Other:

Ota will not be back.

Risa to release her 1^st single in summer.

Kanatomo to release her 1^st album, but not before summer since Karin releases hers in spring

Maa-chan to produce songs and/or release a single later this year.

I don’t know if we can expect Kanatomo and Maa to join the M-Line concerts immediately because of their health issues, but it would be great! 

I was so wrong for some things!