73 replies to this topic

[Touki]

 

 

 

I think the reason Rosy Chronicle gets late debut is that H!P is in financial disaster. The budget spent on creating a new group is not cheap. If each H!P group releases like one single per year, I'm not surprised Rosy gets late debut. Also, if OCHA NORMA still looks like the group in debut without a solid fanbase right now, I'm worried about Rosy's future.

 

After debut, the group needs to be very active in order to survive. Just releasing one single per year without additional songs (digital singles or bonus songs in any forms) is a red flag.

I'm fairly certain they didn't debut this year due to unfavorable odds of winning Best New Artist.

 

H!P is rolling in money. I invite anyone to do the math of ticket price x number of seats x 2 shows per day =

Total Single sales profit <  1 Budokan/Yokohama Arena Performance profit

 

If anything creating a new group in H!P is relatively inexpensive for the simple fact that they share with the other established H!P groups. Revenue won't be high but expenses will be super low. They'll be profitable in 6 months to a year.

 

 

Best New Artist is also the factor. There are ILLIT and especially ME:I as nominees this year. I dare say to you that even MM is nowhere as popular as ME:I. Rosy needs to make sure to nail that award next year. Getting that award does not ensure doing well during later years, but not getting that award will ensure that the group will be in a slump for a long time before picking up steam again.

My wish for 2025 is that Rosy Chronicle wins Best New Artist. Their debut was delayed so much, while in the end ME:I didn't even win the 2024 edition ... It's not even ILLIT ...

 

 

While following Furupa and CUTIE STREET, I realize that it's extremely difficult for Rosy to beat CUTIE STREET. I bet that Kawaii Lab will even sacrifice CANDY TUNE and SWEET STEADY to focus on CUTIE STREET while keeping the same amount of promotion for Furupa.

 

There is still a slim chance, but it means that in 2025, H!P must bet everything on Rosy, and build members' profile that are attractive to casual fans. Single sales, though important, is not the best indicator of how popular the group is. However, there are 2 things regarding debut single that H!P must not miss: making sure that the MV has at least 10M views, and their songs are used by other idol groups on TikTok including Kawaii Lab idols, Takaneko, Stardust idols , etc. This is optional but UFP can let Rosy be on The First Take, because both Yulia and Onoda Karin can sing better than any current MM members except Odasaku.

 

Also, this is quite important: just create Rosy in a way that casual fans love, and forget about what MM otakus think. Seeing how they ditch and bash Tsubaki Factory just because the group does not have traditional H!P style (despite the group's ability to attract casual fans) makes me really furious. Let's take OCHA NORMA as an example: I bet that songs like Unmei Chachachacha~n, Shekenaare can be viral on TikTok, but the company missed the opportunity to attract more casual fans and chose to promote songs like Uchira just because traditional H!P fans prefer that song. 

[patapataful]

@Touki - THIS would be everything and knowing H!P would try every way to make the new group successful and known in the entertainment world. 

 

But my fear... they handle it like always... Their internet efforts in promo aren't in any group at the moment? At least I don't remember. Even with Ocha Norma, their concept was the best viral way to promote their stuff in the web more...

 

I wish RC the best and maybe they are the ONE to get the turning point in promo.

[RoseQuartz+Aina]

 

While following Furupa and CUTIE STREET, I realize that it's extremely difficult for Rosy to beat CUTIE STREET. I bet that Kawaii Lab will even sacrifice CANDY TUNE and SWEET STEADY to focus on CUTIE STREET while keeping the same amount of promotion for Furupa.

I don't think it will be possible to beat CUTIE STREET in popularity. They got 20M view for their first MV. 100K Followers on X. Parutan is having 6k likes every post she makes...

 

Meanwhile, RC has 16.6k followers and averages 300 likes per post.

 

 

making sure that the MV has at least 10M views

That's pretty optimistic.That's a lot even for Morning Musume or Juice=Juice.

 

But, i don't know. If they have a great debut single maybe the quality of their songs could make the difference compared to CUTIE STREET's popularity ?!?

 

I'm just saying that if the reason to delay their debut single is to get a better chance at the Best Artist 2025 it's sad because EVEN ME:I couldn't get it. So, it will be difficult.

[Touki]

 

 

making sure that the MV has at least 10M views

That's pretty optimistic.That's a lot even for Morning Musume or Juice=Juice.

 

But, i don't know. If they have a great debut single maybe the quality of their songs could make the difference compared to CUTIE STREET's popularity ?!?

 

I'm just saying that if the reason to delay their debut single is to get a better chance at the Best Artist 2025 it's sad because EVEN ME:I couldn't get it. So, it will be difficult.

 

 

I'm not optimistic, it's just a high bar that I set. Most Japanese groups nowadays have far more views for their debut MV than the current 1 - 2M views for MM and J=J currently.

 

I read on hpupdate.info and according to my limited understanding of Japanese, some people mentioned that H!P can barely step outside of their own fanbase. The problem with MM and J=J is that they cannot attract casual fans (or should I say, people that are not within H!P fanbase). The reason why Tsubaki Factory suffers so badly is because (I believe) that fans from MM and J=J try their best to ditch and make sure that they are not more popular than any senior H!P groups and because their music is very different from traditional H!P. Unfortunately, UFP responds to it by not trying to make them different from other H!P groups to avoid more criticism.

 

In conclusion, I think UFP must demonstrate that for the first time, a junior H!P group can defeat MM in terms of views for their debut MV. Besides us, I don't think MM and J=J fans will support RC, so UFP must tackle the casual fans who don't know much about H!P. Otherwise, I can see that the Best New Artist Award nominee is out of reach for RC.

 

Spoiler

Plus, according to current annual H!P ranking poll in Japan (https://hpupdate.info/?p=422273), MM does not seem to become "flagship" anymore. Both BEYOOOOONDS and J=J's songs rank higher than MM's one, and none of MM members other than Oda Sakura rank #10. This is another reason why RC should not rely on fans from other groups to survive

[megumibex]

I don't think MM fans have any significant beef with other h!p groups becoming more popular. Firstly, most h!p fans follow multiple groups. Even hardcore fans for one groups tend to have a passing interest in the others. 

 

Tsubaki has had a very rocky history, probably more so than any other group currently active. Their debut was shaky and didn't make a big splash compared to Kobushi and Country Girls. The Risa scandal was one of the biggest in modern h!p. Then they went through some pretty major changes which were probably for the best, but all fandoms are resistant to big changes. Furthermore, their songs are fine, but they don't really stand out, and neither do most of the music videos. 

 

I think the problem with h!p is they do everything by half measures. Most of the songs are bland, most of the music videos look cheap. The rare time one of those things is better, the other one gets worse. They need to write a catchy, shareable song, and promote it with a fun video that people who don't already like the members will enjoy watching. Then they need to promote it. H!P can do each of these things when they want to, but seem unwilling to do all three at the same time.  

[Unlimited_DJ]

I'm sorry but have you listened to Cutie Streets music?

I made several attempts but couldn't get past 10 seconds on each performance. That says something because I was able to get to 20 seconds on Reve Pocket's performance. That high pitch anime character singing is a no for me.

ILLIT and ME:I lost best new artist to a Meme, so I guess anything is possible.

 

I learned something that puts H!P's strategy into perspective. While  lurking the Japanese messages, I discovered that H!P's FC membership is 100K+. I didn't believe it at first but the more I thought about it, the more it being that large makes sense.

 

Existed 26 years

All groups share the same Fanclub

UF has a good reputation with the public

Perform in cities that the more popular groups don't, not just in and around Tokyo/Osaka

They have 3 physical stores in 3 different regions of Japan. The cost of maintaining 3 physical store is super expensive.

Their concerts are broadcast LIVE on TV(Now Hulu) and at least 1 movie theater in every prefecture in Japan plus sometimes international.

Most convincing thing is that they have 2 freaking co-branded credit cards that earn reward points.

 

Like Apple they've built their own eco-system. H!P caters to their Fanclub.

So no, H!P don't give 2 sh*ts about the general public, and I'm fine with that.

[Touki]

I'm sorry but have you listened to Cutie Streets music?
I made several attempts but couldn't get past 10 seconds on each performance. That says something because I was able to get to 20 seconds on Reve Pocket's performance. That high pitch anime character singing is a no for me.
ILLIT and ME:I lost best new artist to a Meme, so I guess anything is possible.
 
I learned something that puts H!P's strategy into perspective. While  lurking the Japanese messages, I discovered that H!P's FC membership is 100K+. I didn't believe it at first but the more I thought about it, the more it being that large makes sense.
 
Existed 26 years
All groups share the same Fanclub
UF has a good reputation with the public
Perform in cities that the more popular groups don't, not just in and around Tokyo/Osaka
They have 3 physical stores in 3 different regions of Japan. The cost of maintaining 3 physical store is super expensive.
Their concerts are broadcast LIVE on TV(Now Hulu) and at least 1 movie theater in every prefecture in Japan plus sometimes international.
Most convincing thing is that they have 2 freaking co-branded credit cards that earn reward points.
 
Like Apple they've built their own eco-system. H!P caters to their Fanclub.
So no, H!P don't give 2 sh*ts about the general public, and I'm fine with that.

 
First, it's fine if you don't like CUTIE STREET music, people have different taste. However, I'd like to remind you that regarding the music you don't like, the number of views for the MV and TFT is around 3x more than Wake-up Call. If it does not convince you that the public does not really care about MM's songs compared to CUTIE STREET's one, I don't know what will. Furthermore, I've seen some posts on hpupdate.info that laughed at how a group with just cutesy song can even beat MM.
 
Second, the achievements that you mentioned only relates to profits. While profit is important to maintain the idols, do you think it's OK not to give a sh*t about the music? Well, as long as H!P hardcore wotas love to hear it or willing to buy the single without a second though, it's an achievement for UFP. Again, it may be OK for you, but I feel really sorry for the idol group that has to experience it.
 
Third, Apple has its own eco-system, but it is known by both people who use Iphone and people who use Samsung. H!P is like an isolated island and only people within the fanclub know them, not outside people. Apple still tries to convince new customers to buy their products, and UFP does not give a sh*t about whether general public is interested in H!P or not. Apple is very big compared to Samsung or LG, while H!P is like sand compared to 48's, 46's, Stardust or Kawaii Lab.
 
I have seen some people who are fine with H!P caring more about milking money from wotas without putting any effort to creating the music that are attractive to the public. However, let me ask you a question: Who do you expect to support Rosy Chronicle? People from H!P fanclub only? While the fanclub membership is universal among H!P, do you think that at least 30% of them are interested in new H!P group? Now I understand why FRUITS ZIPPER was able to have a 2-day Budokan tour within 2 years from their debut, whereas OCHA NORMA didn't even get any venue with the capacity of 5,000.

 

Isolating H!P from other Japanese idol groups and from people who are not within H!P fanclub, to me, is the most ridiculous thing I've ever observed, especially when H!P is not big anymore. If Rosy Chronicle has to meet the same fate, this will be very disappointing. To be honest, UFP should have focused on promoting them a lot before debut. I think they have 5 songs, and each could be turned to digital singles or could have their own MVs to navigate public's interest. ANGERME (as S/mileage), J=J and TF all had indie singles with MV before debut, but there's none for BEYOOOOONDS, Ocha Norma and now RC, which is quite disappointing to me.

[Unlimited_DJ]

"Apple still tries to convince new customers to buy their products, and UFP does not give a sh*t about whether general public is interested in H!P or not."

 

 

 

That's basically what I said right? H!P doesn't need to care.

 

 

 

As I've stated many many times on this site. Youtube views are one of the worst metrics to determine a groups popularity because I know that companies buy views/likes/followers/subscribers to make their artist seem more popular than they are.  Were you aware that Ocha Norma performed over 200 times in 2024? Is that not impressive?

 

 

 

If you think the achievements I listed only relate to profits then you didn't read the list.

 

 

 

I understand that it's a business. UFP is a company.  The girls are employees, not childhood friends who were discovered. Profit will always be the most important thing. H!P makes a lot of $$. Their strategy can't be too terrible if they are making money. H!P is not like the other companies because H!P is unlike the other companies. H!P has a different long term strategy. "Fans for life" The general public will lose interest eventually and move on to the next new shiny thing. Quick rise means quick fall. When RC is celebrating their 5th year anniversary, people will be saying, "Do you remember Me:I?"

 

 

 

The day that H!P starts making music that is attractive to the general public will be my last day as a fan. They make music that I like so that's what's important to me. I care not how many other people like it. I think the vast majority of FC membership is interested in the new H!P group, not sure why you suggest less than 30%. I like the bottom up approach that H!P takes. Make them earn it. Isolating H!P keeps it pure.

[Touki]

You once suggested that single sales is the worst metric to measure the group's popularity, now you suggest Youtube view is the worst metric to measure the group's popularity? What next? Being able to perform at Saitama Super Arena is the worst metric to measure popularity? I think it means that in some H!P fans' mind, they are not convinced that ME:I, FRUITS ZIPPER, Yoasobi, or LiSA are more popular than H!P.

 

Also, I think this is the reason why RC should shift attention to non-H!P casual fans, because if their music is not what hardcore H!P fans expect, the group will be abandoned just like Tsubaki Factory. I always think that fans of idols always wish that their idols become popular in public's eyes. However, when I see the current H!P fanbase, I may need to rethink it.

[Kumi-chan]

Spoiler

This is optional but UFP can let Rosy be on The First Take, because both Yulia and Onoda Karin can sing better than any current MM members except Odasaku.

 

What am I reading? OMG. Stop lying like that just because you hate a group. Use you time and energy to support your fav groups and ignore those you hate. It's crazy to say things like that. Have you even listened to RC live?

 

 The reason why Tsubaki Factory suffers so badly is because (I believe) that fans from MM and J=J try their best to ditch and make sure that they are not more popular than any senior H!P groups

This is not even complotism it's just a higher level of it. Seriously stop flooding every single topics with complaints about groups you don't like please. People have other things to do than to prevent a group from being popular. TF have popularity issues but there are many factors for that, and none is about MM or JJ fans having an agenda against them.

 

I love the outfits for what I assume will be their first single. And they give them a song that has a funny title. I'm so excited for their debut! I can't believe Ayana is now a decent singer, I remember when she joined and was so shaky. I hope everything will be fine for them.

 

[Unlimited_DJ]

This will be my last response on this popularity subject.

 

I choose my words carefully. 

"One of the worst" is different from saying "the worst."

I'm not naive enough to not know that bulk buying by idol fans exist and that companies buy then refund the purchases after they've been counted as sales. Idol fans don't buy the music, they buy the "extra" that comes with buying the CD.

I'm not naive enough to not know that companies hire stream farms to inflate view counts. Fake it til you make it.

 

Do you know what you can't fake? A butt in a seat. Congrats on a 2day Budokan, that is a great accomplishment, but what I've noticed is that popular artists go months without a concert so when they finally have one it's in large venues while the H!P girlies are performing 2 a day concerts week in and week out. If you want to attend a H!P concert just wait a few days

[RoseQuartz+Aina]

We are getting informations about RC debut single from Karin Onoda (Rosy Chronicle's blog)
 
https://ameblo.jp/ro...2881079473.html
 

Project 2025 Winter Fes. “Gou” was held at Shinagawa Stellar Ball.


Thank you to everyone who came!


The first day of the “Ai” show!


Rosy Chronicle performed their debut single “Ubu to Zuru” for the first time!


This song was the first performance of our other debut single, “Hebu Zuru”.

Another debut single song “Hey Arrival! 〜See you in Nippon!


The song title “Ubu to Zulu” is unimaginably strong! Strong, strong, strong! Strong! The lyrics of this song are strong!


We hope you will listen to it at the live performance.


All of us at Rosy Chronicle

We will continue to do our best!

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

 

Also, https://x.com/Rosy_C...150638147137959

[Touki]

I'm looking forward to the teaser.

Anyways: KOUGA is involved in Ubu to Zuru, and that sounds exciting. IMO, most of the songs that involve him sound very good.

[Kumi-chan]

Hope to see a live performance from one of the two songs in the next ep of HaroSta! I'm curious to know what will be the image of the group. From the outfit/title of the first song, they may have the same image as OCHA NORMA. Which would be weird since they don't usually do that. Maybe something closer to Kobushi Factory. I can't wait to find out!

[RoseQuartz+Aina]

RC is having a new song for "live": 8bit Kataomoi (8bit片思い; 8bit Unrequited Love)
From Hello Station #561 (2 weeks ago)

 

No preview of the debut single in the latest episode #562, or latest Hello Dream 2025-01-06

[RoseQuartz+Aina]

Heirasshai! ~Nippon de Aimashou~ Music Video will be released tomorrow !

https://x.com/Rosy_Chronicle/status/1888549552556552395

[Ahornbjörn]

Yep

[Shinji]

The gaikokujin dub really cracked me up  

PV is fun to watch, song is catchy, they're off to a great start !

[Unlimited_DJ]

Literal tears from my eyes. I feel like a proud papa. I don't know if it met or exceeded my expectations. It's sorta Country Girls-ish but it's not. It is100% H!P. Breath of fresh air when all the Senpai groups are doing more mature songs.

 

I dub this "Kacchoiize Japan II"

 

I wonder if it'll be used in a tourism campaign.

[RoseQuartz+Aina]

I would compare them to the original juice=juice. They have the same freshness. I have the same passion for them.

The umbrella part of the clip is identical to juice=juice SA-MI-DA-RE!

Karin got the "spoken part" of the song like before. Nice.

The MV is having a lot of moments, and it is so pure fun.

I would need to re-watch the MV more to catch all the elements and small details to be seen !

 

I'm super happy.