134 replies to this topic

[Ares13]

^
^
^ .. beautiful figures but ... wrong analysis methodology ...
anyway down to even the most simple basic analysis ..you need to do a ratio to a baseline ..
Since we don't really know the whole population of votes .. I do a simple one and use the No.1 of that time as a baseline ..

SKE members in the 1st election:

1. Maeda Atsuko 4630 votes

19. Matsui Jurina 1371 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.296)
29. Matsui Rena 1073 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.232)

NMB members in their 1st election:

1. Maeda Atsuko 139892 votes

28. Yamamoto Sayaka 8697 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.062)

SKE members in their 2nd election

1. Oshima Yuko 31448

10. Matsui Jurina 12168 (ratio to no.1 - 0.387)
11. Matsui Rena 12082 (ratio to no.1 - 0.384)

24. Oya Masana 4634 (ratio to no.1 - 0.147)
35. Takayanagi Akane 2030 (ratio to no.1 - 0.065)
38. Yagami Kumi 1909 (ratio to no.1 - 0.061)

NMB members in their 2nd election

1. Oshima Yuko 108837

19. Yamamoto Sayaka 23020 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.216)
20. Watanabe Miyuki 19159 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.176)

43. Fukumoto Aina 6912 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.064)
46. Yamada Nana 6683 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.062)
60. Ogasawara Mayu 5919 votes (ratio to no.1 - 0.054)

looking at this then we can use it as a common pointer ... and as an index ..
the W matsui is .296 and .232 at 1st but gain to .387 and .384 on 2nd ..
On 2nd the SKE48 low level turn up at .147, .065 and .061

Sayaka on the 1st only manage .062 barely beating SKE48 2nd elect lowest of .061

on the NMB48 2nd elect ..
Sayaka and Miyuki of .216 and .176 is still far behind W matsui even for 1st elect of .296 and .232 ..
and the 2nd elect lower level of NMB48 of .064, .062 and .054 is behind SKE 2nd elect of .147, .065 and .061 ..

basically .. NMB48 is moving slower with the whole 48 than SKE48 ...
But obviously so because there are more 48 groups and girls now ..

But they are moving forward though ...

[hitoyou]

Sure, it gives you figures that shows how weak NMB is and how strong SKE is... Screw fancy figures.

Not surprisingly... votes costs money and that's what is important in this case. How much money are SKE, NMB, AKB, HKT fans willing to bring into the game. The number of votes that bought you a comfortable victory in the first election won't even put you among top 64 in the latest election. While 4630 votes was a winner... when the new NMB fans tried to make their voices heard for the first time, well then 122,843 votes just made Yuko runner up

The patterns are the same for SKE, NMB and will be for HKT. First you secure your ace as high up as possible and then the number will grow from there.

SKE 2-5-6-15
NMB 1-5-?
HKT 1-?

The price tag for this pattern has been increasing though.

[hitoyou]

First album press meeting.

Among the things that were said:

- AKB have done it, and our senpais from SKE achived a solo performance at Kouhaku uta gassen last year. Looking at them from such a close distance jealously and it was frustrating that we couldn't do the same.
This year has only just begun but if we start now and aim for Kouhaku uta gassen at the end of the year I think we will be able to make the proud achievement to stand on that stage.

Q. If the album reaches No.1 spot is there any reward you want from AKi-P?
Milky: Yakiniku
Sayanee: A regualar TV-show (Milky: WUT? ) ...golden variety from 7 to 8 o'clock (Jokes aside) A TV-show that lets you know the NMB members one by one.

(disclaimer... this text contains major flaws )

[Ares13]

LOL ..

my personal opinion ..

No matter how big a fan I become for 48 ..This is what i think ..

well ... Kouhaku has become sort of an achievement ..
but I thought the real objective of the show is for the whole family young and old ..whatever the taste ..
It is to also showcase .. all the different genre of music in Japan .. new and old ..

I never did agree about SKE48 being in Kouhaku .. because AKB48 is in it ..
all the 48 is really too similar .. its actually repeating style and genre ..

I don't think its much of a show anymore ... if you ever got AKB48, SKE48, NMB48, HKT48 all solo appearance ..
and you tell people that is what girl group music is about in Japan...

In the end .. the TV people will sell out for the ratings ..
They getting it .. its not about achievement .. just showing principles bowing to money and ratings ..

But of course .. I wouldn't expect teenage girls to have this kind of thinking though ..

[hitoyou]

How about another JE-group then But sure, the SKE solo felt strange when AKB invited all other groups.

Well, Yoshimoto wanted to inform us about their intentions for this year I believe and it is the girls task to motivate why they deserve it. I have no doubts that the girls wants that stage though.

Seems like it will include a new TV-show too

[Erin.]

Covers can be found here: http://plaza.rakuten...y/201301290008/
I've ordered Type N, as I thought I would.

[hitoyou]

Because links might be bothersome to click on

Type N

Type M

Type B

Theater


Just outside NHK Hall...

Really nice covers, all of them.

Are we looking at the senbatsu for the new song? ...20 girls or 16 girls?

[Tsurugi_Ken]

Why harisen I wonder.

[dev-null]

20 girls on the cover, but no Haru? My excitement level has dropped a bit. I was really hopping they would go for proper full team covers (especially since the types are team-divided) once and give all the girls who worked hard to make NMB48 a success a place to shine.

The pictures itself are nice though, maybe the background is a bit too busy; but definitely not a fan of this secondary "NMB48" logo in the top-right edge (I hope it's just some "watermark" thingy for the web.)

[hitoyou]

The missing team memebers issue is a bother...

They went full out NHK this time, compare the logos

[satchan]

NMB48 as the NHK watermark is a neat idea considering the apparent goal they're setting, but is kind of distracting, especially on the theater version.

I'm sure the harisen has a very specific purpose in what should be a very awesome song (and video).

I didn't notice at first it was 20 girls instead of 16 (mostly because this resolution makes it difficult to make out a couple of the girls for me) but I do wonder if this is a one time thing or the long term solution to making the senbatsu less Team N heavy, while not gutting girls who are more popular than some of the Team M or BII girls who would get the senbatsu spot. Even still, it sucks that girls like Haru and Riichan have to fall on the sword to not make it so heavy on the Team N.

[Krusha]

It's an inevitability that the NMB48 that started out - consisting only of Team N girls - will eventually end up being a mix of N, M, BII and possibly also RS girls.

For those of us who started following NMB48 from their first televised auditions, and picked favorites from back then, it's quite likely that we'll experience some of our favorites who had a part back then, won't have a part or not as large a part now, or in the future.
This is just the sad part of it all, but there's not much to do except support them.

NMB48 is one of those groups that are almost too good to be true. They have so many great girls in all their ranks, many whom are deserving really.

Sayanee, Milky, Nana, Maachun, Ainyan, Ripopo - these I consider 100% guaranteed in the senbatsu. Now we have Yuihan from AKB48 there also, who is also guaranteed to be in senbatsu. Then there is Fuuchan, Airi, and Keira of Team M, whom I am quite sure will be pushed and representing Team M. Of Team BII we have Shuu and Uuka as their front girls.

Now note how the cover is 20 girls, but only 2 BII girls. Would it be likely in the future to only have 2 BII girls? Quite sure we might get one more at least. M has 3 girls. And I mentioned 6 N girls already, which leaves us with 4 more girls from N: Keicchi, Mirurun, Akarin, and Kanakichi. Of these I am rather sure that Akarin will remain, and I am not sure about the other 3 but they too seem quite strong as well. But if anybody goes from this lineup, it will be from these 3 I think. Other girls who then could join senbatsu? From M: Kinoshita, Ayakachan, Shimarena, Hitomin, Saepii, Maokyun. And from BII: Yuuri and Sakipi.

And I haven't even considered RS now.

So it'll only get rougher if they will be more fair in member distribution.

With their upcoming concert tour being only for selected members, it's going to be hard for some of the girls that cannot make it... And perhaps fans too.

[Noriega]

Because links might be bothersome to click on


Theater

Namba Brady Bunch looks so gewddddd

[Tsurugi_Ken]

As always, Kotani's doyagao gives me a bit of a chuckle. She's just missing her thumbs up on that picture to make it perfect.

[Ares13]

OMG ... Keira ...
I wasn't sure ... cost they give that face ..
and I thought Keira is gone and out of their push ..

they push Riichan in ha! but remove her for this one ..

but with Keira on the cover .. kind of change a lot of things to me ..lol

[droopy10]

After seeing the covers I gave in and ordered Type B as well. *sigh*

[TheFicusWithSuperPowers]

I like the covers...

*watching back for the tracklist. Wait!*

Yup! It is on my WISH-LIST.

[tomi]

NMB48 - 「12月31日」 short ver.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrSu_mKbCnI

Beautiful song/beautiful pv

will release only the album

[hitoyou]

So, there won't be any 20 girl senbatsu after all, strange cover arrangements then. But things continues in the sign of Kouhaku

The new song is a ballad, a slow song, tears... Unspectacular compared to most of NMB's previous songs. I buy that you sometimes have to break the chain of songs and start all over again, to try and push beyond Kitagawa and HA! would seem stupid and over ambitious. How nice that a semi best of album just showd up then where you can put a song like this without any problems. It is not huge single a-side material but the song itself is very nice and beautiful.

PV preview...

Simple, beautiful and fits the songs like a glove. I guess it does what it was intended to do well it brings this yellow fellow
Knowing that Jou was together with Keira in that footage... oh my.

With all these early footage... a bit strange when Yuihan is there.

-------
HA! preview:

[Erin.]

Someone on stage48 said that the new song sounds a lot like an AKB-style ballad, which I have to agree with. It has that tone of being "miserable but not going to give up," which isn't something that really fits NMB. Of course NMB are known for their cool songs (which they do better than everyone else), but we know from Sayanee's Jungle Gym that they can do ballads as well. Ones that sound like NMB and not AKB.

But I also like the idea that they have to release something less-than-wonderful in order to come back and hit even harder.

In any case, I'm extremely excited to be buying this, and can't wait to be able to play all these NMB songs any time I want from the convenience of my own ipod.