2084 replies to this topic

[ajma93632]

Unfortunately I think Eripon will be the next to go, most likely at the end of this year. Ayumi being promoted to sub-leader really gave me that impression.

 

I do think Erina might be next, but I don't think that's a reason to make Ayumi sub-leader. Ayumi became sub-leader simply because she's the oldest after Mizuki (the leader), it's the same reason why Haruna became sub-leader with Mizuki, that happens when the oldest member is not part of the oldest generation in the group. But if Erina graduates then in Ayumi would be the only sub-leader because there's not anyone above her in age and hierarchy. I think the next sub-leader pair would be Masaki and Sakura with the remaining sempai.

 

Back to the topic, I think Erina will be next because she has already thought about her graduation, after her I think it would be Ayumi and then Sakura since they also have thought about their graduations. But I don't think Mizuki and Maa-chan will graduate, at least for 1.5 - 2 years.

[ShiningLight445]

I've posted here many times before, but I think the best answer as to "who will graduate next?" is anyone, at this point

 

Duu and Ogata's graduation came somewhat out of nowhere, and Harunan knew what she wanted to do. So, who's next can literally be anyone.

 

 

 

However, I have my thoughts:

 

- Mizuki will be leader for a bit longer and graduate in 2020

- Erina will then be leader, surpassing Sayu's tenure (being in for 12 years) and graduate in 2023

- Ayumi will be sub-leader for a few years

 

I can see next to be Miki for the English education and moving on to a non-idol lifestyle. I can also see Maachan because....Maachan. Lol. Also I mentioned potential Mizuki grad next year in 2020. So top 3 for me is Miki, Mizuki, or Maachan (3 M's).

I can see Chiichan staying maybe for another year or two, possibly with a tenure for 3 years thereabouts.

 

If Erina becomes leader in 2020, Ayumi would still be subleader. Within their time of leadership, graduating members will be Miki, Sakura, Chiichan, Maachan - in no particular order - and with Erina as leader for 2 years, Ayumi would then graduate, making Maria subleader.

Once Erina graduates, Maria will be leader (which she desires) and then Akane as subleader.

 

 

 

This is all one hot mess of a post lol I'm sorry

[ajma93632]

^Under Maria leadership Kaede would be sub-leader too, with Akane, and if she graduates then Reina for sub-leader with Akane.

 

Now that you mention Chisaki, I wonder for how long she will be in MM, sometimes I think she wants to graduate as soon as possible and but also that she's capable to last for a long time, since she's seen as one of the future aces of the group.

[megumibex]

Of topic, but i wish they would stop with this double subleader stuff. Subleaders don't really do anything anyway, except take the leader's place when they are gone, so having two just seems redundant.

I suspect Chiichan to graduate pretty early, maybe just outlasting Oharu. For who's next, i think Erina.

[ajma93632]

^I think it's good to have two sub-leaders for the cases  where the oldest member is not part of oldest generation, because that prevents having a member to jump to leadership when she never experienced being the sub-leader at least. If management would have sticked to one sub-leader when Reina graduated then Haruna would have been chosen as a sub-leader instead of Mizuki, so would have been strange to have Mizuki being the leader without being sub-leader unlike Haruna. So it think it's good for those cases.

 

Well, three years of Chii-chan are pretty decent considering she debuted in H!P in 2015.

[Ottonumbers]

At this point in time, I don't know who would announce a graduation at this pont. One thing is for sure, Mizuki isnt graduating for a while, she'll want to be H!P leader for a year or two max before leaving and by then she'll have 9/10 years in and thats pretty impressive by itself. But if things go well for Miki in terms of what she is currently doing, I can see her graduating rather soon.

[Juandalyn]

Time to do some speculating again.

 

I'd say the group is divided into two groups: Those that could announce their graduation tomorrow and nobody would be really surprised and those that most people don't see graduating anytime soon. The line goes right between 11th and 12th generation, with a few exceptions I guess.

 

1. As others have mentioned, if someone graduates this year it's probably not going to be Mizuki. Management would want to give her a full year of H!P leadership - if nothing extraordinary happens, but that's unlikely. 

2. Sakura is the group's best singer and really nobody comes close. They wouldn't let her go before they add another good singer - and started pushing that one right away. I'd see it as similar to the situation when Sakura herself joined and Reina was on her way out:

Sakura joined in September 2012, Reina announced her graduation in November of the same year and graduated in May 2013. 

The new members will probably join in June this year, which makes me believe Sakura would graduate at the end of the spring tour 2020 at the earliest. It's possible that she'd leave at the end of the fall tour too, or leave without another good singer being added to the group, but I doubt it.

3. Chisaki and Kaede are always weird cases in my book due to their age when they joined the group. They're both already 19. Granted, that also means they decided on a career in idol business instead of going to university so they definitely have time until they're 25 (unwritten, unofficial rule). But seeing that Kaede is always in the back I wouldn't be surprised if she called it quits before that.

 

Which leaves me at the following conclusion:

 

We will have a graduation at the fall tour, and the most likely to graduate would be Ikuta and Ayumi - maybe together, even. They've both more or less reached their peak and can't go much higher in the group. They've also been in H!P for 8, Ikuta even 8 1/2 years. 

It's also totally possible that Masaki will graduate but she's so unpredictable that I don't know where to put her. 

Management might decide to book Yokohama Arena for a double graduation, too. This would be practical since Budokan might be closed for renovations by then.

 

My timetable would look like this:

- Spring 2019: Nobody graduates, I think they would have announced something by now if so.

- Fall 2019: Double graduation Suberi combi at YokoAri

- Spring 2020: Oda Sakura graduation

- Fall 2020: Fukumura Mizuki graduation; Mizuki will have hit her 10th year with Morning Musume by then.

- WILD CARD: I don't think Masaki wants to be leader. That's why I think she might graduate either before Mizuki or right after her, 1) pulling a Riho and graduate at a small venue at the Countdown concerts, 2) graduate at the H!P winter concert, 3) graduate sping 2021.

- Spring 2021: If it's not Masaki I think nobody will graduate here. At this point the senpai are gone (as said, I think Masaki won't stay long after the last member of 9th/10th/11th gen) and management would want to give the "new generation" their spotlight. Think Sukatto My Heart promotion. 

- Fall 2021: If nobody graduated during the spring concert - I'm pretty sure they want to keep up with the "1 grad per year" cyclus - this spot will be open. This is in 2 and a half years, many things could have changed by then. Maybe even one of the girls who are supposed to join this year decides to graduate then.

[ShiningLight445]

^

 

Spring 2019: Nobody graduates, I think they would have announced something by now if so

 

Maybe we will see an announcement at the beginning of spring tour? I hope not, for now.

 

 

I'm still going with my post from above

[sukibeam]

I sat down and thought about it... my predictions are in the spoiler

 

Spoiler

2019 Spring - 15th gen winners announced in June... how can we expect anything less with 2 Budokan dates for the tour end?

2019 Fall - Ikuta. She's been getting super beautiful lately, which seems to happen right before a member makes the announcement, but I know she's also into her sports idoling thing and can see her graduating to further pursue that. I also read something recently (was it the 20th anniversary interviews?) where she basically said she saw herself leaving before Mizuki.

 

2020 Spring - Haga. Okay, hear me out. She'll be graduating from school then, and she's one of the more studious members (and comes from a well-off family who would expect her to go to college). It takes a special kind of idol to juggle that kind of grueling schedule. I can see her graduating to focus solely on college.

2020 Summer - 16 gen auditions announced either in the spring or here in preparation for the upcoming exodus.

2020 Fall - Sato. She's said repeatedly she has an idea of when she wants to grad, and is musically gifted, so I expect her to work as staff for UFP someday. She'll probably want to peace out before being thrust into a leadership role too.

 

2021 Winter - 16th audition winners will be announced around this time.

2021 Spring - Ishida. She's already said she's not comfortable with leadership and has been made a subleader. She also really enjoys her Sendai work and stage, so I would think just before 10 years tenure would be a decent time for her to graduate.

2021 Fall - Fukumura. Leader gonna be 25 and just under 11 years in the group, breaking leadership records. I think once she hits that 10/11 year mark management is definitely going to hint to her to start thinking about her future.

 

2022 Fall - Oda. She's already been one of the mains for several years and doesn't seem to be growing much to me. I think she'd enjoying being leader but would eventually want to do more mature solo UFP work. I think a 17th gen announcement will probably be made around this time too.

 

 

[miyooooons]

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@juandalyn I think that whole analysis is pretty realistic and reasonable. I like reading these because it's interesting to me to see what everyone is thinking at the moment.
I can't make any predictions though because I'm pretty much blindsided by every MM grad that's happened since I became a fan so...

[Sora-chan]

I’m guessing on Mizuki or Sakura lol (the two that seem pretty solid.) Idk why but for some reason they were the ones that popped in my head so I’m going with it!

[mizukingdom1]

TBH everyone in the current line up could be a candidate for graduation because they have all been in the company for >5 years apart from Yokoyan.

But even then Yokoyan rn is at the age where most girls graduate so....

[yuumaa]

I’m convinced it’ll be either Fukumura or Masaki (or Maaaybe Ayumi)
If you look closely at footage, Maachan has been dancing in a “cool” way - which actually involves less movement.
It’s possibly a stretch but it looks like she avoids movements sometimes, possibly to avoid straining her hernia.
Not to mention she actually said in a radio show that it still hurts but she’s too scared to go to the doctor again.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she graduated at the end of this year or early next year...

On the other hand, she’s been clinging to Fuku recently, and we all know what a clingy Maachan tends to lead to haha. It seems Maa has been training Haga to be more “Maachan”, while Ayumi has been training the younger members to dance.

[Satur]

 I still think Mizuki and Erina will graduate at the same time.

[sukibeam]

^ I guess my doubts about that boil down to how big a role you feel leaders/subleaders actually play in the group. I personally feel like leadership is important and plays a role, no matter how small it may seem, and that management wouldn't want a leader AND the longer-serving sub to leave at the same time.

 

Spoiler

An Anecdote:

In marching band my senior year, I was my instrument's official "sectional leader". Being a small section (~7 total), there was only 1 senior my junior year, but he was the last chair and sorta lazy with band. That being said, both of those years I ended up being de facto section leader. We of course had the band directors/drum majors who were in charge and would discipline, but they can't see or attend to everyone at all times, so it fell to section leaders to help anyone struggling and to keep troublemakers in line. That included learning marching sets, difficult measures, and just general issues during down time.

 

I imagine H!P groups to be the same. You have the designated leader/co-lead who keep an eye on things and help when higher-level management isn't around, and maybe some other tenured members assisting. Having capable and experienced members who are comfortable performing those roles helps keep the machine well-oiled.

[mizukingdom1]

One thing for sure is that if Mizuki does graduate, Eripon will graduate soon after.

Eripon has said that she is still in the group because of Mizuki...

[DD7]

I also think Mizuki and Eripon will graduate close together just like Aichan and Gaki or even Riho and Zukki.

[RihoZukki]

If PonPon graduates at the same time or behind eachother like Sayasuzu, it will be legendary.

[Otsukaranya]

What scares me the most is 16-17 y.o who leave to continue their studies. So I'm thinking Akane / Reina ? Tho I don't really think so. 

[ranghurl]

I think Mizuki would probably be HP leader for at least 2 years so I don't think she'll graduate soon.
This year is pretty unpredictable.
As much as I want Sakura to stay and lead, the possibility of adding a new vocal powerhouse could eventually push her to leave, maybe 2020.
I don't see Masaki staying for quite long and same goes for Maria. Chii could probably stay for 3 years, i think.
Kaede could be leader material but I also said that with Duu but still she left.
Miki and Haga might or might not stay this year. Yokoyama might stay for 6-7 years.
If Eripon stays, she'd have to wait for 2 years more and be leader in 2021. Same goes for Ayumi, they'd be 24 by then. So I think one of them has to give up the leader dream.