2084 replies to this topic

[Cosmee-chan♡]

Harunan will be there forever

 

May this become reality

[hazuky]

I'm happy not bc Haruka is the next, I'm happy bc is not Mizuki lol
A lot of people have been throwing shade to Mizuki that is a relief she's staying
I guess Masaki is next and then eripon or Ayumi
Wish that formation is right and Mizuki graduated last

[Satur]

 I think Erina would stand untill Mizuki's graduation at least. Or them graduate together or she will be next leader.

[Juandalyn]

Predictions for 2018-2021:
Spring 2018 - Ikuta Erina
Fall 2018 - Iikubo Haruna
Spring 2019 - Sato Masaki
Fall 2019 - Ishida Ayumi
Spring 2020 - Fukumura Mizuki
Fall 2020 - Oda Sakura
Spring 2021 - Kaga Kaede
Fall 2021 - Ogata Haruna

 

I don't think Kaede will leave before any 12th gen member graduates, but your order is not impossible.

 

Once again I think we should look at the girls' ambitions and dreams. Kudo graduating to become an actress wasn't that surprising at all, it's just the time or rather that she's the first 10th gen member to go.

There have been some predictions in MM's main thread that those out of school are rather save since none of them seem to have any predictable goal. 

• Haruna hasn't done modeling for a long time, promoting manga only gets you so far. At the moment she basically has nothing running for herself aside from MM. Will likely graduate because she feels too old or wants a normal life - which could be this year, next year, when she turns 25 or in 10 years, honestly.
• Mizuki is a big H!P fan and doesn't do anything besides MM except for gravure. I don't think that's what she wants to do as her main job after graduation. Therefore, same as Haruna, if she's not bored with her job in MM she's probably going to stay for some time.
• Ayumi is an interesting case. She's got several things going for her - local variety (granted, that's not much), short acting experiences, dance. Due to her age it's unlikely that she'll have a big career in acting or dance though. 
• Ikuta... what is Ikuta even doing? She's an idol. That's it.
• Ogata just entered university. It's not unlikely for her to graduate at any point to focus on her studies, but the way Japanese university is she might stay until her university graduation.
• Sakura has the vocals for some future in the singing industry but the market for female solo artists is basically dead at the moment. She can stay in H!P of course and keep on working with them, but that's nothing to graduate for.

Everyone younger than that is still in school. Since we don't know what the girls actually feel they might want to enter adulthood with a non-idol job, but they could also stay in the group. Duu decided that she wanted to go the acting way. It's totally possible that the other high school 3rd years also want to try out a different job after graduation. 

• Masaki, who knows. I guess at the moment everybody's more worried about her feelings towards Duu's graduation or about her back. Some people like to focus on her saying she wants to graduate 2018 (which turned out to be a pun actually? but we should know better than to trust predictions like that by now, looking at Riho and Duu who wanted to become MM leaders and so on) and that'd be a good point for her to start university to study music related stuff. But well, Masaki could as well decide to do that while staying in MM. 
• Miki seems to be a weird pick because she just found her place in the group and gets pushed.
• Duu is out.
• Kaede just joined. Of course she could say "nah I'm outtie" but after staying with the KSS for so long I doubt it.

The others could be wild cards. 

• Maria loves MM and being an idol, so I'm sure she won't be the next one to go.
• Yoko just joined. She might leave if everything is too overwhelming for her but that's unlikely.
• Akane is the youngest. She's not popular and has no place in the group yet, but I doubt it's going to be her. 

To make it short: It could be everybody, honestly. The most likely are those in their last year of school but it could also be those out of school who decided it's just time for them to go. 

On top of that, it's hard to believe but 10th gen has been in the group for 6 years now, 9th gen a few months longer. Even Sakura isn't far off. Not only are these average MM tenures, it's also not unlikely that you simply grow bored with something after 6 years. 

[sukibeam]

^ i really like your post. reasons like that are why i had Haruka pegged for a 2018 spring graduation to focus on acting, and why i knew Zukki was going to graduate for college (just had it for 2017).

 

to piggyback:

• Iikubo and Ikuta both write columns on occasion (at least, they did last i checked). They're both mostly idoling at the moment - as you say - and seem to really like looking after their kouhai.
• I want Daa-chan to be a long hauler, but I can see her moving on in a couple more years. She seems to be quite popular on Ara Ara Kashiko, and I could see her taking that role to a more permanent position to promote Sendai stuff once she gets tired of having no dancing match within the group. She still has a lot of room to grow (as do Ikuta and Iikubo), but many girls graduate as still-incomplete idols.
• I think Ogata is having a blast and see her moving on once uni is done and she wants to focus on that and a normal life. She really just doesn't strike me as a career idol, much in the same way Zukki came across.
• UFA let Mano and her small sales happen for years, and with OdaSaku steadily building a following, I don't think it would be completely impossible for her to graduate for a H!P or UFP solo career like Kikkawa. She could even graduate to form a smaller unit with some talented KSS (or Maa-chan >_>)
• Masaking is likely to graduate sooner rather than later (yes, because of her back). More and more of her peers graduating is just another catalyst. But watch me be wrong and she stays until she's the final true Colorful Era girl remaining because FLOWER MUST BLOOM.
• Miki is the future ... she's not going anywhere.
• Maria will likely go the way of Chayuu and stay until she's 30 to marry a baseball player.
• Kaede and Yokorei aren't even options at this point. Neither are bullied and everything is still new and exciting. They're both here for another 4 years at least.
• Haga... despite her heartbreak over the Duu loss, she's been gaining confidence and her day will come. Yeah, she's not popular, but that hasn't stopped Iikubo. She hasn't quite solidified her place in the group yet, but she's still young and figuring out who she is (girl just turned 15). She's a "taiki bansei" if ever there were one, and I expect many years and great things from her. She still has LOADS of friends scattered among H!P too.
• As for Fukuhime, I want to think she'll be around for forever because of her H!P love, but I feel like she's pretty sensitive and perceptive, and might feel she's holding the group back if she's the leader for 4+ years. And she's already pushing 2.5 years. As I mentioned with Oda, I hope they would pull a Momochi and let her captain a new group when the time comes.

[Laharle]

Maa-chan made a pun but she also mentioned during Riho's grad the years up to 2018. I also think she hinted one more time (maybe I'm wrong but I think during the same time she said she knew her grad date) but it can also be some were left this impression because her posts were a bit emotional/sad at the time I think.

But then I like what you guys wrote. The next after Haruka that would be surprising would be either a 12ki or 13ki cause they are way less likely. As for 9ki10ki11ki I think only Sakura would surprise me a bit but the rest not really, probably because of age or tenure. I'll know Sakura is a goner when they add a similar skilled singer.

[ajma93632]

So people noticed that the members graduate in the order they entered the stage on GMML concert. The order is Sayu-Riho-Zukki-Duu-Maachan-Eripon-Ayumi-Oda-Harunan-Fukuchan

Somehow I think it makes sense, but I wonder if Harunan can stick for that long.

 

You know it kind of matches with this cover of OTT:

 

 

It's like like a game, because from Reina to Sayu you have to skip 4 members, from Sayu to Riho 3 members, from Riho to Kanon 2, and from Kanon to Duu just 1, so if it were true then the next one would be Masaki. And it matchs with that pic from the GMML concert

 

The same happens with this cover of Wagamama:

 

 

 

With this pic the next one would be Erina.

 

I know it's just conspiracy theory, but it's kind of funny.

[miyooooons]

Harunan - Spring 2018
Maachan - Fall 2018
Mizuki - Fall 2019
Eripon - Fall 2020

everyone else I don't have a clue, but every grad has surprised me so this could go completely opposite of that.
I do think Ayumi & Sakura will be the last standing from Michishige Eleven. Sakura might leave before she becomes leader though, and Ayumi could be the last leader from the Michishige Eleven era.

[minaeshi]

i find it almost comical that many people here still believe that the older members would be the first to go out. we've seen 3 times that this has not been the case. i'm going to say that one "older" member will graduate after duu, then we'll get another surprise from a member we least expect (ayumi, sakura, akane?) 

[SailorKame]

 I think Erina would stand untill Mizuki's graduation at least. Or them graduate together or she will be next leader.

 

I think they might do a Ai/Gaki deal with Mizuki graduating and Eripon being a transitional leader for part of a year.

[Chisa no Mark]

I didn't even hear about Eripon being bored because I strayed for a while (underwhelmed by post Tsunku songs, rocked by Riho-Riho's departure).

But man, when ALL the others are freaking out over Kaga joining she's there showing no emotion. Then when Sayumin joins them backstage at the

Cotton Club, everyone is already starting to cry but there she is looking like she couldn't care less. If it is boredom, then get lost already.

[YellowAccel]

Oharu is gonna gratuate soon. She's not gonna stay during 6-7 years... Yeah, i'm totally saying that because it's always the one expect the less who gratuate, so if enough people say she'll graduate soon, that's not gonna happen

[ShiningLight445]

Oharu will probably be in for 4 to 5 years. Unless she will be like Sayu. I'm sure fans in 2003 would never expect Sayu to last almost 12 years

 

My guess is either Maachan, Ayumi, or Fukuchan.

Fukuchan for being in H!P for so long already (but in the back of my mind I know that she is an H!P wota and will probably be around until she's 25)

Ayumi might want to expand her dance skills and go on to a dance school or something.

Maachan because...hopefully not her back Either she decides something else or what, i don't know.

 

Anyone is up for grabs to be next. It's a mystery and surprise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

At least Duu didn't say "I will be graduating at the end of this tour!" Because sometimes auditions for plays and stage things are strict with agencies and stuff. Thank goodness that didn't happen with her....

[Esty]

• Miki is the future ... she's not going anywhere.

Could you please explain? To me she seems like someone I can expect to go in 1-3 years, but as I'm no following her that closely, I could be wrong.

[JennyInTokyo]

I actually think Mizuki will stay around for a long time as well as Haruna. Not because I want to debunk that the older the member the sooner they graduate but I am actually thinking about what they wanna do when they both do decide to graduate in the future. Mizuki is the biggest H!P fan and she will want to stay under that umbrella for as long as she can, and I don't think she really might have thought about what might happen after Morning Musume. When she does graduate I don't think she'll have a clear goal about what she wants to do after. I can't imagine her staying in entertainment as much as I'd love her to stay. I think she'd want to do something in education or something to do with working with children? And the same with Haruna but I'd have no idea what she'd want to do. I mean she did modelling in the past but would she have the same leverage after graduating?

[sukibeam]

 

• Miki is the future ... she's not going anywhere.

Could you please explain? To me she seems like someone I can expect to go in 1-3 years, but as I'm no following her that closely, I could be wrong.

 

Sure spoilered

 

Spoiler

I don't currently follow her that closely either, but she comes across as one of those lowkey aces who management has sitting in the wings for her turn to shine once the senpai start graduating. She can sing well, she can dance well, she's funny (always making people laugh in her MCs), she's good at talking, she has the singular MM schtick of being fluent in English, and she's in the wota's good graces... while not super popular at the moment (then again, Aibutt wasn't wasn't that popular until platinum era), once she becomes one of the senpai I can see her getting a strong following.

 

So it comes down to a question of her own motives rather than whether H!P would want to keep her around. She turns 18 this October and will likely juggle college with her activities. Every time I see her perform, she's always got this big goofy smile - which tells me she is having the time of her life, so I don't feel like she's at the point of having another option to focus on. Like Oharu, perhaps after graduating college (if she attends) she will want to focus on that.

 

I dunno, just something tells me management are saving her push for the next year or two when the current popular faces begin to take their own exit... and in the meantime, she's just enjoying herself and chuggin' along.

[Esty]

^

Thank you. I might have thought she won't stay long, because I only kind of followed her in her frist year, and back then she was very awkward on stage, switching between looking confused and forcing her smile, making slight mistakes here and there. But I guess, it's only natural that by now she has gotten used to performing, and is much more composed on stage.

[taylorniw]

 

 

 

• Miki is the future ... she's not going anywhere.

Could you please explain? To me she seems like someone I can expect to go in 1-3 years, but as I'm no following her that closely, I could be wrong.

 
Sure spoilered
 

Spoiler

I don't currently follow her that closely either, but she comes across as one of those lowkey aces who management has sitting in the wings for her turn to shine once the senpai start graduating. She can sing well, she can dance well, she's funny (always making people laugh in her MCs), she's good at talking, she has the singular MM schtick of being fluent in English, and she's in the wota's good graces... while not super popular at the moment (then again, Aibutt wasn't wasn't that popular until platinum era), once she becomes one of the senpai I can see her getting a strong following.
 
So it comes down to a question of her own motives rather than whether H!P would want to keep her around. She turns 18 this October and will likely juggle college with her activities. Every time I see her perform, she's always got this big goofy smile - which tells me she is having the time of her life, so I don't feel like she's at the point of having another option to focus on. Like Oharu, perhaps after graduating college (if she attends) she will want to focus on that.
 
I dunno, just something tells me management are saving her push for the next year or two when the current popular faces begin to take their own exit... and in the meantime, she's just enjoying herself and chuggin' along.

I actually kind of get the feeling Miki is someone who will always kind of be on the cusp of being a front girl but will never quite make it.

[minaeshi]

^same here 

[mashaki]

So after watching yesterday's placement reveal video, the possibility of Mizuki being next seems high :/ . I mean, it doesn't have anything to do with Chisaki being added but after that she did mention that the H!P she loved so much is changing so much and the one she fell in love with is almost gone. And with her letting that sink in and being a huge Momoko fan, who knows what's gonna happen after Momo leaves, and this is probably just me, but I don't think she'll enjoy being in H!P (like in a way that she has up until now) and she could be the one to leave in the spring.