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Which MM member is going to graduate soon?


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#1661 taylorniw

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 02:32 AM

Being the most popular member means literally nothing at this point in time and I doubt that's even true. Not like everyone (or anyone really) is trying to pick her up for gigs and cms nor does she have any recognition with a casual audience. And I highly doubt her merch sales are topping Mizuki or any of the other prominent front girls. That she's the only member of her gen to not have a photobook even though girls like Haruna and Sakura gave gotten them speaks volumes. If she was H!P's top dog we'd know it. Everything about her screams midtier popularity.

They won't put her on shows. They've made it clear they have very little faith in her ability to be a variety star and they're right. Her unpredictable 'lol random' shtick is the lowest form of comedy, as in it's comedy for people who aren't actually funny, and the only people who think it gives her any star power are her fans.

#1662 minaeshi

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:01 AM

then graduation it is lol 


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#1663 Juandalyn

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:05 AM

That she's the only member of her gen to not have a photobook even though girls like Haruna and Sakura gave gotten them speaks volumes.

 

Though that doesn't always mean popularity. Of course it's usually the most popular members that get photobooks (aside from... well, Haruna and Sakura), but for example Miyabi had as many photobooks as Chinami - one of the most popular members of Berryz as many as one of the less popular members. It could be that either Masaki doesn't want to do a photobook or management doesn't want to (could also be because Masaki might be hard to work with, considering her concentration problems). In comparison, while Sakura isn't that popular management always tried to push her (starting with her solo singing events) and Haruna... well, they did add her as a fashionable member, so maybe they thought they should work with her model experience. Or it is a goodbye-present like some people mused and she's next to go. Who knows.

 

I do agree, though, that Masaki isn't as popular as people might think. She's gotten the biggest gain of fans last year, though.


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#1664 taylorniw

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:13 AM

The photobook was just one example. Even Kanon got more solo work than Masaki did. If she was truly one of the most popular girls they'd utilize her somehow and after half a decade they've never made a serious attempt. She's barely on tv, she's barely in magazines, her radio presence is no more prominent than anyone elses, she's not a true lead and her only real center was shared with a new girl and is arguably one of the least successful of all the more recent a-sides. That either points to her not being that popular or someone hates her guts.

And if her being hard to work with is true then that's worse, especially given that she's not 12 anymore. Being popular means nothing if management can't use you because you're incapable of working properly.

#1665 RenaiDestiny。

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 04:17 AM

Miyabi chose not to do a lot of photobooks btw. Her first one was when she was really young and I don't think she was comfortable with the content, so her second and most likely last one was released when she was an adult.

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#1666 SZA

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 06:44 AM

Spoiler


If anyone is going to graduate willingly, it's probably Haruna. She's getting older and it looks like she wants to venture into some modeling. If she got modeling work before debut then I'm pretty confident she will get work post grad.
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#1667 taskinist

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:06 AM

To be fair, I feel like Maachan's popularity has increased exponentially in the past year or so, and we all know H!P aren't quick to respond to trends. I think she's definitely not as big as people assume, but I feel like she's grown past mid-tier popularity faster than they've kept up with.

Even if they responded accordingly, though, I think she'd probably get less work than offered because she seems difficult to work with.

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#1668 JennyInTokyo

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 11:49 AM

I don't believe Masaki is as popular as it can be made out. I know a lot of Western fans like her but I don't think she's major popular in Japan. She has some following but I don't think she's as popular as Ayumi or Mizuki.

Even if management didn't want to make Masaki graduate if her injury gets worse under any circumstance there is not a lot they can do. They can't risk the health of a girl no matter how popular she is.

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#1669 Juandalyn

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 01:34 PM

True. Even Eri and Riho had to graduate in the end, so popularity doesn't do anything.

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#1670 mizukingdom1

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:16 PM

I feel like Maa-chan's popularity is like Zukki's... They are very popular but just not in the "fan" kind of way, like lots of people found out about the group when Zukki's weight fluctuated because it was in the news and such, became fans of the group but just not specifically her "fan"... 

 

So basically what I'm trying to say is, I don't think you can judge popularity just based on the number of fans.



#1671 JennyInTokyo

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:20 PM

I think it also depends on how strongly the fans support the girl! Maachan seems popular to me because her fans are very outspoken about her, so it seems she looks very popular but in reality she isn't. It's like Mizuki is one of the more popular members of the group yet I never see outspoken fans for her, but you see the numbers she has so it is always difficult to know how popular the girls are and in which context!


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#1672 taylorniw

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 03:26 PM

Mizuki isn't the kind of girl to really inspire fervor in a person and I mean that in the least rude way possible. I'm not a fan but I don't have anything overwhelmingly negative to say about her.

I feel like Maa-chan's popularity is like Zukki's... They are very popular but just not in the "fan" kind of way, like lots of people found out about the group when Zukki's weight fluctuated because it was in the news and such, became fans of the group but just not specifically her "fan"...

So basically what I'm trying to say is, I don't think you can judge popularity just based on the number of fans.

You can't but since the idol boom is over an MM has sort of peaked for the era, the people who support you are the kind of popularity that matters. Just a couple years ago I would have said differently. If they were really big and in demand that kind of popularity would matter more. Rikako has a lot of fans like that but you'll notice all the real leads and fronts in Angerme are the girls with the fan count to back them up.

#1673 celestia414

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 09:30 PM

If Masaki isn't that popular, why did she win the japanese fan's poll for favorite member of Hello! Project then?


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#1674 rinafest'19

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 11:08 PM

^Most fans don't participate in those polls while MOST Maa fans will participate in them

I'm not trying to deny her gains in popularity but I don't take those kind of polls as an indicator. Theres one H!P poll conducted through google docs where starting this year you have to verify your ballot and I'm sure its because of people voting multiple times. And its the girls who's fans are more intense are going to be the ones to try and vote multiple times.


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#1675 JennyInTokyo

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Posted 12 January 2017 - 11:31 PM

Mizuki isn't the kind of girl to really inspire fervor in a person and I mean that in the least rude way possible. I'm not a fan but I don't have anything overwhelmingly negative to say about her.

I feel like Maa-chan's popularity is like Zukki's... They are very popular but just not in the "fan" kind of way, like lots of people found out about the group when Zukki's weight fluctuated because it was in the news and such, became fans of the group but just not specifically her "fan"...
So basically what I'm trying to say is, I don't think you can judge popularity just based on the number of fans.

You can't but since the idol boom is over an MM has sort of peaked for the era, the people who support you are the kind of popularity that matters. Just a couple years ago I would have said differently. If they were really big and in demand that kind of popularity would matter more. Rikako has a lot of fans like that but you'll notice all the real leads and fronts in Angerme are the girls with the fan count to back them up.

I know what you mean. I love Mizuki more for performance than personality. Plus I speak to a lot of her other fans but they're not really outspoken about her online.

A poll wouldn't be trustworthy to determine a members popularity. The number of people might to be to small to really get a honest result among many other factors.

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#1676 Touki

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 11:28 AM

LOL, I agree that Maa-chan doesn't have as many fans as Mizuki, Ayumin or Sakura

However, saying that she's only mid-tier in term of popularity is something that has to be reconsidered. Sasshi's fangirling over her multiplies her popularity (the twitter trending and the mention of Maa-chan on newspaper and headlines). No matter how some people dislike it, we can't deny that her popularity has risen because of that. The only thing that matters is that those effects are temporary, so she has to gain more fans for her if she wants to be popular in long-term.



#1677 Juandalyn

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 01:12 PM

Sakura isn't that popular.

I do think Masaki is popular, actually definiely second tier after Mizuki and Duu. Second tier would be Masaki, Ayumi and eventually Erina and Maria. I'd put Oharu right after that btw, Sakura is somewhere around that, too.
Not judging Yoko and Kaede yet, but they have the potential to become very popular, too.

On topic: Masaki's health aside, I'm still sure the next one to graduate will be one of the 4 oldest members. No ranking.

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#1678 taylorniw

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 02:37 PM

^Most fans don't participate in those polls while MOST Maa fans will participate in them
I'm not trying to deny her gains in popularity but I don't take those kind of polls as an indicator. Theres one H!P poll conducted through google docs where starting this year you have to verify your ballot and I'm sure its because of people voting multiple times. And its the girls who's fans are more intense are going to be the ones to try and vote multiple times.


The poll is also not random, and so like you said the more intense people will vote because others are not going to go out of their way to do it. People need to stop acting as if these fan polls mean anything.

#1679 ☆RisaReinaSayu☆

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 04:42 PM

LOL, I agree that Maa-chan doesn't have as many fans as Mizuki, Ayumin or Sakura

However, saying that she's only mid-tier in term of popularity is something that has to be reconsidered. Sasshi's fangirling over her multiplies her popularity (the twitter trending and the mention of Maa-chan on newspaper and headlines). No matter how some people dislike it, we can't deny that her popularity has risen because of that. The only thing that matters is that those effects are temporary, so she has to gain more fans for her if she wants to be popular in long-term.

By your logic every idol covered individually as herself outside of graduation announcement coverage or scandal details with a strong social media following would classify as popular. The main problem MM has had with each generation after Koharu is a lack of a member who managed to become a household name. 8th gen were faced with all kinds of negative media coverage plus internal and external scrutiny, maintaining some level of notoriety their entire MM careers for all the wrong reasons; which could be argued to mean they were popular in the relative sense as people seemed to live to talk about them even if it was never in a positive way. However, the big pay off for all that notoriety never came and it probably never will, for the sole reason that their popularity was superficial at best.

Meanwhile 9th gen member Sayashi Riho came closest to becoming a household name of all the gens since then in the sense that she became not only the face, but the center, and the ace of Colorful Era MM ~ through Up Front's unrelenting push and promotion of her, but once they stopped advocating for her she could not maintain that household name status because the role they'd given her was all she actually had going for her besides an ideal look for an it girl.

From 10th gen onward there's been no-one who managed even the temporary household name status that Riho did because of Up Front's unrelenting advocating. They tried to make Sakura a household name during her first year, but they tried less hard than they had with Riho & that ultimately meant Sakura teetered on the cusp of household name status for a while before falling by the wayside. They more recently tried their hand at making Makino Maria a household name, but...well we've all seen how well that has actually gone for them. They might still keep trying with her, so maybe she will reach household name status someday. I won't hold my breath though.

Let's back pedal to 10th gen. Up Front has mainly washed their hands clean of this generation. They gave them the role of the pretty modeling career worthy girl who occasionally gets a solo line but mostly sings chorus duo/trio lines or gets designated to full group vocals (Iikubo), the secondary lead or main vocalist (Satou), the lead dancer with too many singing lines solo or otherwise for her own good & the sake of our ears {at least her voice is improving enough over the years to make it easier for our ears to bear} (Ishida), and the support vocalist with a tomboy's flair (Kudou) respectively, then left them to their own devices. People like this generation because of all the untapped/underutilized potential they bring to the table & they've collectively garnered a mainstream worthy following because they're viewed as the underdogs of the bunch even after becoming seniors within the group.

Let's look more specifically at Masaki. She's a person who self admittedly prefers to work at her own pace and do what she wants not what she's told. That ultimately means Up Front is probably never going to pull the trigger and advocate for her, but it's okay she has Sashihara Rino going gaga over her...and? What has that actually done for her over the course of the better part of a year besides alert people within fan circles of idol groups with bigger names than her own of the fact she exists and boosting her social media following a bit? She's the next Suzuki Kanon. A girl the people in charge are not necessarily interested in advocating for who will get over with a chunk of the fanbase as an underdog see a big blow-up period which they could potentially capitalize on, then ultimately have the hype about her die down when the people in charge don't capitalize on the opportunity and the people raving about her move on to another girl.



#1680 Kaeseki

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Posted 17 January 2017 - 05:19 PM

^

 

Good observations. 

 

One item with 10th Gen which has perplexed me is Kudo Haruka.  I remember in weeks after this generation was introduced there was a WHOLE lot of bandwidth expended on her and her marvelous future in the unit;  the awesome husky voice, rumor she was the unofficial leader of 10th Gen due to her prior H!P experience, talk of with her young age and skill she was a shoe-in to get the Leader spot one day, etc.  But in the blink of an eye she got shunted into the background, her long hair disappeared and she'd appear in MV after MV wearing stupid hats!  She's just now edging towards the front when idols start getting into the age when graduation becomes a distinct possibility.

 

I wonder what happened?  My guess is a combination of H!P focusing so much on Riho and Duu fans having unrealistic expectations.


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