2084 replies to this topic

[XFER]

I want to think, like Pyo-Kiyo, that Erina mentioning that management are pushing her to graduate, will act as a protection. If management don't want to expose that they push girls out, they might allow Erina to remain more time. I want to see her as a leader and think she would do a great job. 

[Jenksy]

Both AI and Gaki had mentioned that management came to them to talk about them graduating. The girls can't stay forever so its not surprising whatsoever.

[ajma93632]

 

Ayumi is older than Erina, so it was expected that she was going to get the role of sub-leader since it was always for the oldest member, besides the leader.

 

I know there's historical precedent of skipping more tenured members to give subleadership to an older girl (Fujimoto over Takahashi, who was like 1.5 years older but also nearly 1.5 years less tenured in the group). It even made sense to make Iikubo and Fukumura co-subleaders since Fukumura was only 16 at the time, while Iikubo was 18 and already used to wrangling younger members (*cough*Sato*cough*).

 

It does not make sense to me for Ishida to be given co-subleadership when there's only a 6 month difference in age between her and Ikuta, especially when Ikuta has just about 10 months longer group tenure and was already a sublead for 4 years at the time. I mean, will they skip over Sato to make Oda the next subleader, even if Sato has a year longer tenure but is 2 months younger?

 

What does make sense to me is that management wants to prep Ishida for 9th gen's looming phase out, especially since she's stated she doesn't want leadership. Some people really don't want to be in those positions, but when you give them the responsibility anyway they do great. Ishida has proven to be reliable, and is really good on camera thanks to her local Sendai TV work. Management is "boiling a bullfrog" so to say... they're easing her into it and slowly increasing the flame so she's less likely to hightail it. Fukumura has already been with the company 11 years, and has been in MM 8.5 years. Even Ayacho, despite being in H!P for 15 years, was only in S/mileage/ANGERME for a little more than 10.

 

 

I'm pretty sure in japanese culture age is a very big factor for seniority, even if it's a 6 months difference, it still counts. And I don't think members don't wanting to be leader or sub-leader has any influence on management's decision to who will be given the role. If Ayumi graduates I don't think there will be another sub-leader becuase Erina will be both the oldest and eldest member. Only after bith Erina and Ayumi have graduated there will be more sub-leaders, and it'll be Maa-chan and Sakura since one is the eldest and other one the oldest. 

 

For me, I don't see how Ayumi's sub-leader postion is related to Erina's possible graduation, the reasons I have already mentioned. Maybe she'll graduate next, but I don't think Ayumi was appointed as sub-leader because of that, the sub-leader position, which started with Kei Yasuda who was the oldest at that time, seems to be an opportunity to give a more important role to the members who are older but not in high position in hierarchy.

 

BTW, since Maa-chan is now in the university, I can't help thinking she might be next, if she can't handle with both university and idol life.

[megumibex]

Maybe since 2/3 of 15th gen have talked about their English ability, maybe the office is preparing for Miki to go. I hope not, since she's my joint favorite. Hopefully it's just a coincidence, or they are planning more overseas concerts in the near future. 

[Juandalyn]

I'm gonna make a bold prediction (which destroys my previous timetable): This year Morning Musume won't lose a member.

 

Every girl seems very comfortable in the group. The only ones that I see at risk would be Ikuta, Akane and maybe Ayumi.

Ayumi, because she is the second oldest and has reached everything in the group - however, she seems to take up more subleader activities lately.

Ikuta, because she had a bit of a style change and has hinted at staff talking to her about graduation. Considering the "support me until the olympics" line though we might still have a year with her.

Akane, simply because she's a 3rd grade high schooler at the moment. She could go the Masaki way and study while being in the group, and it's not that unlikely considering how close she and Masaki are, but there's always a bit of danger of graduation.

 

Other than that: Mizuki will stay H!P leader for some time, Masaki seems to balance the group and studying quite well and Sakura won't go until they established another good singer - and while I have hopes for Rio, we haven't heard her sing yet.

[AngelAndz]

^
Even if Rio is a really good singer I doubt Sakura will graduate just because there’s another good singer in the group. If anything they need more than one really good singer, especially since Sakura is responsible for a lot of Morning Musume’s chorus vocals at the moment. She needs the extra help in that department so she doesn’t end up putting her singing voice at risk. Plus that and it would be pretty unfair to Rio if Sakura left and she was expected to take over from her singing the majority of the chorus vocals for the group. Besides Sakura enjoys being a member of Morning Musume too much just to leave once another good singer joins the group. She even said in her “No Day, But Today” interview that she wants to help the current lineup get good at singing so I think it’ll be quite some time before Sakura starts properly thinking about graduating.

Aside from that I kind of agree that there might not be any graduations this year, but I don’t want to get my hopes up just yet in case someone makes an announcement within the next 2 months

[Juandalyn]

Oh, I actually agree with you. One more reason why I think Sakura will stay for some more time.

[sukibeam]

Not that I think Sakura will be leaving soon, but "she does most of the chorus vocals" doesn't really mean anything. Riho, while a stable enough singer to be lead, was not by any means a songstress. She struggled a lot of the time for those higher or beltier notes. But they used her for chorus recordings. Sayu is another who did chorus work. My point is H!P has used outside artists for chorus vocals, they've used good-singing members, they've used ok-singing members, they've used not-so-good singing members... If Sakura left tomorrow, they'd just use Mizuki, Masaki, or Miki instead.

 

All that aside, I concur she has at least a couple more years left in her. However, I don't know if she could help the current members with singing... I honestly feel it would be better if intensive, professional vocal lessons were involved. It did wonders for Juice=Juice to bring back Sugai-sensei. I'm sure current members get some training with new songs, but we're not seeing the leaps and bounds J=J had which tells me technique isn't necessarily being improved upon.

[minaeshi]

Has there ever been a member that actually helps the girls with singing? giving them little tips on their technique is obvious and i'm sure Sakura already does that for the members just as Ayumi would help out a little with dance technique or Riho with stage presence, but to actually help them improve significantly? i really don't think they need Sakura for that.. Their vocal instructor can do the job just fine. 

 

Sakura will stay for a while longer, not because she found some purpose to teach the newbies, but because she loves the group has has shown no desire to do anything else as of yet. The last 5 members to graduate did so with a goal in mind. Riho wanted to go overseas to study, Zukki wanted to have a career in social work, Duu wanted to go into acting, Haachin wanted to study seriously, and Harunan was old wanted to explore other talents. So rather than looking at members who have a reason to stay, I would be more worried about the members who have a reason to leave.

[otaku2009]

Well i know she just debuted but Rio could the next as she has a very very weak body condition for the concerts as she told Fukumura so she might be fed up with the group routine and pull a Sayashi with a shotgun graduation...

[XFER]

I've always wondered about that. I mean, there is a small chance, but still very real, that some new girl can't deal with the stress, the tiring work days, and as much as they love the group, they might think of quitting early. I certainly hope it doesn't happen, and I am not completely worried about Rio, but it makes you think what goes through the girls' minds.

 

And, maybe Chisaki will leave? I mean, she has a new song with Country Girls, so maybe the workload will be too much, especially if Momusu are planning to reveal a new single soon. I remember her saying she was more attached to Country Girls, so I wouldn't doubt her staying with Country Girls permanently if she was given the chance.

[ajma93632]

I've always wondered about that. I mean, there is a small chance, but still very real, that some new girl can't deal with the stress, the tiring work days, and as much as they love the group, they might think of quitting early. I certainly hope it doesn't happen, and I am not completely worried about Rio, but it makes you think what goes through the girls' minds.

 

The news about Homare made me think about this comment of yours. It'd be really sad if she end up graduating. Also, she'd be the members with the shortest ternure if she graduate this year. 

[ajma93632]

So, is it safe to say that there will be no graduation this year?

[Fall]

^Every event in a home prefecture will still be a risk early on, but the chance that this will be a tour without a graduation increases substantially every day.

[ShiningLight445]

I think if there are no graduations this year, it would be 2008 and 2019 that there were no graduations.

[Sugaya Risako]

I think if there are no graduations this year, it would be 2008 and 2019 that there were no graduations.

hope we get more years without graduations.

[洋hiromi水]

I do feel like Eripon will graduate next. I can see that happening for autumn 2020.

 

Personally, I think a Eripon x Mizuki double graduation would be epic. It could be in a big venue, with many of the past members coming back as guests (Ai, Gaki, Sayu, Reina, Sayashi, Duu etc.) to see them off. It would be perfect to send off 9th gen, who was such a special generation connecting past and present Momusu.

 

I don't see Ayumi as a leader, but Maa-chan even less so. That means even if a double grad would happen, which I'd love, I have no idea who'd continue leading the group. Has Kaedii senority to some members because of her time as Kenshuusei? I can see her as a leading personality, but maybe she'd need a bit more time. 

 

Well, Ayumi would probably be the most logical and the best choice after all.

[otaku2009]

Lol ayumi is the most scary senpai now so i would be sorry for her juniors if she become leader

[King Zero]

Masaki mentioned in a few different places that she seriously thought of graduating at the same time Ogata did, and didn't for the same reason.  With her "I'm never going to university" becoming "I'm enrolled in university", and the rumors of her being involved with someone, and the fact that she's always been larger than life, it makes sense that she'd be the next to graduate.  University is going to make Musume look smaller to someone who already has a good grasp of the size of the world.

 

Ayumi won't graduate for at least another year and a half, and not before Masaki.  She is too stable and too aware of her role in MM to leave before 15ki is in complete order.  That said, I don't see Ayumi staying long after 15ki has fully integrated into the group.  There is also a possibility that Ayumi and Sakura will graduate together, with Maria taking Ayumi's place as MM's go-to dancer, and Rio taking Sakura's place vocally.

 

Sadly, the girls I think are most likely to graduate are the ones most often in everyone else's shadow.  Ikuta, Nonaka, Haga, and Kaga have always played uncertain roles in Musume.  That Ikuta and Nonaka both had to clarify publicly that they didn't want to, and and aren't going to graduate means someone has thought they should.  All four would have exploded if MM still had a show like Hello!Morning, but without that extra place to show what makes them each so beautiful to a larger public, they're sometimes forgotten.  Ikuta would probably be first to go (first in first out), then Haga (unless she is put in some definite form of leadership over the 15ki), then Nonaka (I get Aika vibes from her, sadly), then Kaga (she would fight to stay in simply because of the fight she had to get in).  

 

 

_{I hate to admit it, but Yokoyama might actually be the next member to graduate.  Recently I get the same Riho-esque "I'm drowning but too polite or don't know who to ask for help" feeling from her.  I'm wrong about this.  I have to be.}

[ajma93632]

In my opinion any of the 9-11ki members (except Mizuki) could be the next to graduate. And I got the feeling the 12-14ki members are looking foward to it so they can cover their role. I don't mean it in a selfish way, rather than they feel some responsibility to stay and guide the group for the newer members like 15ki. But I think if anyone is graduating it'll be by the end of 2020, because of the Olympic games it looks like the group will be doing some related activities, so graduating in the middle of the 2020 wouldn't be convinient. And it's too late to announce a graduation for this year unless the member is willing to leave without a proper graduation concert.