2084 replies to this topic

[otaku2009]

So at the latest release event, Eripon said the staff start to push her about graduating... she said jokingly « please let me continue until olympics »

[Juandalyn]

Ah the good ol' staff grad push. Though olympics would mean summer 2020, that's still a whole year. She probably wouldn't graduate before MM's fall tour 2020. 

[sukibeam]

Ganbatte Ikuta 

[otaku2009]

So i think it will be a double graduation, i would say 2020 is the last year for fukuchan too.

[Zoe]

To expand on Erina's comment, she says she wants to hang on through the Olympics because she knows that MM will be called upon for work related to it

[ShiningLight445]

There was the interview once years ago she said she wanted to pass Sayu in terms of tenure. If staff is pushing her to leave (and why would they?) I say ganbatte Ikuta!! Please stay!!

[RihoZukki]

I feel like the only one they want to surpass Sayu's tenure is Mizuki.

[ShiningLight445]

^
Maria might, since she is basically a mini-me of Sayu

 

 

Anyways, yesterday I was thinking. (I was taking long car trip, so I had plenty of time to think and let my mind wander a lot lol).

Next ones might be Ayumi and Erina. Mizuki is now H!P leader and she's very passionate about her group and H!P. So she could still stay for a number of years. Eri has stated before she'll stay as long as Mizuki, but if staff is pushing her to graduate.....

And then it makes me think Ayumi will graduate next to further study dance (and come back to be H!P's dance instructor?  Would be nice to have her as an instructor.)

 

Making Mizuki still as leader and Maachan as sub-leader I can picture Maachan saying in an interview "But Maachan can't be leader of Morning Musume. Morning Musume might end if I am leader" (echoing Sashihara Rino lol). Therefore after some time as sub-leader Maachan will graduate.

 

Not to forget Chiichan, too. Who knows Country Girls' fate, but Chiichan might want to do something else. So after all this I'm thinking Ayumi/Erina/Masaki/Chisaki - not in that order, but the ones who are next.

 

 

But anything can happen And might I add, whoever graduates next will just make me more sad. I don't want anyone else to graduate.

[mizukingdom1]

Most of the H!P leaders have been there for about 2 years before they graduate, so Fukuhime has got about 2 years left.

 

I don't see any leaving this year but next year could be mass graduation because of the Olympics. 

[jonski111]

delete.....wrong thread

[xiah_mai]

Wotas expeculations

 

Mizuki (Tokyo)   ← Rio/Homare (Tokyo reinforcement)

Ikuta (unpopular, golf player) ← Rio (golf player)

Ishida (dance) ← Homare (Dance reinforcement)

Sato (Hokkaido & Character) ← Mei (Hokkaido reinforcement & Character)

Oda (sing) ← Rio (sing reinforcement)

Nonaka (english) ← Mei (english) 

 

[YellowAccel]

Rio is the golf player, though.

[sukibeam]

I've been mulling over it, and I'm fearful Ikuta really might be the next one What with Ishida becoming a co-sub-lead (when there's really no need?) and her mentioning management's push to graduate.... the real nail in the coffin for me is that post-live reveal interview where Ikuta was absent and it was just Ishida and Fukumura. Maybe they're just breaking Ishida into the role a bit more, or Ikuta had scheduling conflict, but I really kept thinking, "Why didn't they include Eripon?" Even the other forum had people mentioning she looks more "cool" and "over it" than usual, and while I thought it was just her typical aura, some here even thought she seemed super serious during their release event.

 

She can say she wants to hang on until the Olympics, but that's late next summer, and we know how management is once they have something in mind. If they're already mentioning graduation to her, I don't see them waiting 3 more full MM tours for it to happen.

[Fall]

She's been in MM so long at this point, I think she could probably get away with pulling an Ayacho and announcing a year in advance at the end of the aki tour. Whether or not it's Erina, I still suspect that someone will use the beginning of the upcoming tour to announce their own graduation for the end of this year, so it may even be a good way to soften the blow for two announcements if Erina first announces her own for a year out at the same time that another member announces their own graduation for the end of the upcoming fall tour. Then, barring unforeseen health issues, it also removes the anxiety of waiting for someone else to announce for all of next year if people are already expecting that 2020s grad concert will be Erina in November or December. That speculation still assumes that we'll have only one person graduating in 2019 though, and that nobody else would want an out earlier in 2020. If they had Erina's 2020 announcement preceding a double grad announcement for the end of 2019, that may be more like salting a wound than ripping off a bandage.

 

I still have a hard time seeing Erina leaving before Mizuki, personally, but people are complex and dynamic, so it's hard to really say.

[Pyo-Kiyo]

I think that mentioning that staff is trying to make her graduate was a clever thing for Erina to do...?
Cause it might slow down the process a bit... I mean if she announced a graduation soon after saying she asked staff to let her stay until next year... it would sound fishy, wouldn't it?
The public is already suspecting that staff talks members into graduations... especially when it comes to older members, and with the recent 25sai Eien Setsu x 25sai Teinen Setsu and Wada's comment it somewhat looks like they don't want fans to have that impression...?
That's just an idea though...

[ajma93632]

I've been mulling over it, and I'm fearful Ikuta really might be the next one What with Ishida becoming a co-sub-lead (when there's really no need?)

Ayumi is older than Erina, so it was expected that she was going to get the role of sub-leader since it was always for the oldest member, besides the leader. With the the co-subleadership of Mizuki and Haruna, it seems that management resolved the dilemma about if the oldest or the eldest member should be the sub-leader by giving the role to both of them. That's why when Mizuki became leader Erina became sub-leader, and when Haruna graduated Ayumi became sub-leader.

So I don't think Ayumi being sub-leader is an indicator of Erina graduating, and if any of the current sub-leaders graduates the remaining one would be the only one because she'd be both the oldest and the eldest.

As for who will be next, I think it'll be Ayumi, but Erina and Sakura are my next options.

[ShiningLight445]

I too have recently noticed Eripon's "I'm done" appearance with some performances. It reminds me of Tanaka Reina, a year or two before she graduated.

 

8 years in an idol group is amazing in itself, but figuring too that it's almost a full 8 years of intense formation dances and concert performances (yes, I do realize formation dance didn't come around until 2012 with Renai Hunter - and that's 7 years ago). Fatigue could be settling in.

I was excited to hear a few years back that she had desires to surpass Sayu's tenure. And I often pictured her as leader, "Eri is finally leader!" she would say with a big smile and jump in her step. But of course people can change. Look at Rihoriho....

 

She might stay a little bit to help 15th gen out as much as she can. So maybe a grad announcement and a ceremony next year is the plan.

 

 

And, maybe I read into it wrong back at the beginning of the year, but didn't Ayumi say she didn't want to have such a leadership position as sub-leader?

 

 

 

Also I would like to mention, I might be one of few who think this, but I'm not a fan of "management pushing graduation." It should be the member herself to make that decision

[sukibeam]

Ayumi is older than Erina, so it was expected that she was going to get the role of sub-leader since it was always for the oldest member, besides the leader.

 

I know there's historical precedent of skipping more tenured members to give subleadership to an older girl (Fujimoto over Takahashi, who was like 1.5 years older but also nearly 1.5 years less tenured in the group). It even made sense to make Iikubo and Fukumura co-subleaders since Fukumura was only 16 at the time, while Iikubo was 18 and already used to wrangling younger members (*cough*Sato*cough*).

 

It does not make sense to me for Ishida to be given co-subleadership when there's only a 6 month difference in age between her and Ikuta, especially when Ikuta has just about 10 months longer group tenure and was already a sublead for 4 years at the time. I mean, will they skip over Sato to make Oda the next subleader, even if Sato has a year longer tenure but is 2 months younger?

 

What does make sense to me is that management wants to prep Ishida for 9th gen's looming phase out, especially since she's stated she doesn't want leadership. Some people really don't want to be in those positions, but when you give them the responsibility anyway they do great. Ishida has proven to be reliable, and is really good on camera thanks to her local Sendai TV work. Management is "boiling a bullfrog" so to say... they're easing her into it and slowly increasing the flame so she's less likely to hightail it. Fukumura has already been with the company 11 years, and has been in MM 8.5 years. Even Ayacho, despite being in H!P for 15 years, was only in S/mileage/ANGERME for a little more than 10.

[Recognizer]

^ Naive me believed they're preparing us for Suberizu leadership, oh well..
Why did I read this thread, now I'm so depressed

[sukibeam]

^I'm sorry. I want to see an Ikuta leadership, but I really have a hard time looking at all the evidence and not feeling like they're going to start firmly pushing some girls to leave. The group is big and no one is giving the impression of wanting to move on.