2084 replies to this topic

[XFER]

I really want to see Erina as leader, mostly because if she graduated with Mizuki, as stated before, she would be invisible, which would be so unfair. Erina can shine as leader, I'm sure, so I want to see it happening. 

 

Add me to the people who think Sakura should be the last lead to graduate. 

[JoeyBatou]

If you look at the members that graduated after Riho : Suzuki, Kudou, Ogata, Iikubo,

it's clear that they want to build a stong group that can perform very well on stage,

so I don't think that the "needed" members will graduate any time soon.

My prediction is still Haga Akane, 

also Yokoyama Reina, if she doesn't show any sign soon, worrying me though

[miyooooons]

^ I don't think those graduations were management's doing whatsoever. Not too sure about Iikubo, but Suzuki, Kudo & Ogata's graduations were heavily "coming of age" driven and future-focused. The three of them graduated to do something else completely different with their lives (welfare, acting, community college). I don't think it was to get rid of weaker performers. Kudo was actually rising to the top in terms of girls who were getting a push, why else would she have gotten her own A-side graduation song? lol

[Althea]

My statement was just a “what if” and how interesting it would be to watch it play out. I know the likelihood of it happening is very very slim. lol with that being said I would love to see Erina as leader in the future, but if she happens to graduate before Fukuchan then it would be just as awesome to see a 10ki or Sakura lead. I really really hope Akane doesn’t graduate soon. She is the one 12ki I’ve been closely following since the beginning and her growth over time has been outstanding. I love her so much.

[megumibex]

Akane graduating would be the worst. She would have been the youngest member for her entire tenure. I know that happened with Asuka, has that happened with anyone else before?

[Fall]

I have a feeling that Nonaka will be the next out the door. I've never been one in the "she looks so depressed these days" camp, so it's less about that, but more a combination of other factors. The first of which being that she's at the age when members start focusing more on their post-idol education, and second being that she's dipped her toes into the west enough times now in her overseas trips as an idol that she may decide that she wants to stay abroad for a while.  Having spent a lot of her childhood in the US and then the rest of her formative years traveling between cities in Japan with occasional overseas trips, it wouldn't surprise me if she found New York to be the perfect balance of those two worlds.  She just barely missed the NY performance in 2014 and had to sit for most of her performance in Houston because of an injury. Now she'll have been given a full experience in diverse cities like LA and NYC full of people where she fits in by default, an insecurity she'll have already had to deal with for most of her life at this point, and where her language abilities that had previously been a way to stand out will have prepared her perfectly for an extended stay. If she happens to end up studying in the same city where Riho had her post-MM education, that's just icing on the cake for any justification she could give for leaving.

 

There will very likely be no 12th gen graduations in the month and a half left in 2018, hitting their 4 year anniversary. Any 12th gen member that stays through the entirety of 2019 will have been in the group for over 5 years, a tenure that passes Riho and then quickly into the top half of the tenure list where most have left shortly thereafter. The aforementioned factors of age and timing mixed with this already-long (by idol standards) tenure would have prepared me for the possibility even without the more speculative factors of overseas travel being an influence. If she wants to enroll into college next year in the US, it is very likely that she will graduate at the end of the spring tour, almost exactly 5 years since her audition. The good thing about western education is that she doesn't have to be in as much of a hurry and may choose to stay in the group longer if she's still having fun. She could also pull an Aika and stay with H!P for a while until she's fully certain of her future. I just don't see that being as likely as a 2019 graduation.

 

Now, for the first time, that I have reason to think someone other than Maa-chan will be the next to graduate, watch her make that announcement in December.

[sukibeam]

^ I don't follow her too closely, so I don't know if she is already doing college while idoling. If she were to leave for college-related reasons, she'd probably do as you said and come to the west, since Japanese universities - from what I understand - tend to favor students straight out of high school. Miki is already 19 though, so I'd figure she'd have peaced out by now if she wanted to "focus on her studies". She seems to have a pretty comfy position in the group ATM, too, but I can see her trying to pursue other ventures.

 

I find myself at the point though where I wouldn't be truly surprised by anyone 9-12th gen, minus Maria, leaving.

[miyooooons]

I think I'm finally hitting the point where I don't want anyone else that will probably graduate soon to actually graduate. Like...I'm def not ready to give up any of the remaining 9th-11th Gen members. It's going to be rough from here on out lol.

[Kaeseki]

^ I don't follow her too closely, so I don't know if she is already doing college while idoling. If she were to leave for college-related reasons, she'd probably do as you said and come to the west, since Japanese universities - from what I understand - tend to favor students straight out of high school. Miki is already 19 though, so I'd figure she'd have peaced out by now if she wanted to "focus on her studies". She seems to have a pretty comfy position in the group ATM, too, but I can see her trying to pursue other ventures.

 

I find myself at the point though where I wouldn't be truly surprised by anyone 9-12th gen, minus Maria, leaving.

 

 

I don't think there is a huge problem for a Japanese person to get into a Japanese university at a date later than right after high school graduation.  That said it's a huge problem with employers who consider doing such a thing weird and being seen as weird in Japan is comparable to being a convicted murderer in the West.  It would probably be a non-issue if she remained somewhere in Hello! Project but you'd think they'd have already sent her off for a degree by now if that were the case.

 

I'd be skeptical about foreign study.  Again, employers see it as weird with the about the only exception being an employer directing an employee to enter into a foreign school.

[miyooooons]

http://wotaintransla...he-other-three/

The info in this article makes me feel like the order for the 9th-11th girls might be this:
Ikuta -> Fukumura -> Sato -> Ishida -> Oda

And with the rest integrated in:
Ikuta -> Fukumura -> Sato -> Nonaka -> Morito -> Ishida -> Oda -> Kaga -> Yokoyama -> Haga -> Makino

I'm literally always wrong, and this is by no means exactly what I want, but it's just the feeling I have especially after reading that lol Fukuhime could really outlast all her kouhai.

[megumibex]

I think Morito will be one to graduate early. Probably not next, unless yanamin's grad hits her hard, but sooner than expected. I imagine her placing between Ogata and Nakazawa in the tenure list. Just a feeling I get, we'll see.

[sewitches]

Just to put a little bit japanese insight about Miki.
Recently she is saying she wants to become more cute and be more girly, or how they say, to have joshiryoku.
And in another interview, she said she will not leave the group until she feels she made the group global, or did everything she could do as the global person in charge. These 2 things doesn’t really sound to me as she was planning to leave soon. From what I can see, she is becoming more and more immersed in being an idol generally, not only singing which is what she had always been talking about in interviews before. She is also saying lately, that she has so many opportunities to try new things and she is very thankfull and happy about it.

[beyooooonk]

Just to put a little bit japanese insight about Miki.
Recently she is saying she wants to become more cute and be more girly, or how they say, to have joshiryoku.
And in another interview, she said she will not leave the group until she feels she made the group global, or did everything she could do as the global person in charge. These 2 things doesn’t really sound to me as she was planning to leave soon. From what I can see, she is becoming more and more immersed in being an idol generally, not only singing which is what she had always been talking about in interviews before. She is also saying lately, that she has so many opportunities to try new things and she is very thankfull and happy about it.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but looking at the past, we really have to take what the girls say with a grain of salt. For example: Remember when Haruka said she planned on becoming leader and breaking records for the longest tenure because she loved the group so much? Not even two years later did she change her plans and find a new path as the first of her generation to graduate. Same with Riho- while she wasn't as fervent in expressing her desire to ride or die with MM for years and years, she did say she wanted to grow with the group for a while as well, so her graduation announcement was also extremely unexpected. I'm not saying we can't trust the girls' promises for their future plans in the group, but it's funny that girls who are often the shoe-ins for staying because of their enthusiasm end up contradicting their former selves and surprising us. Basically, anything can happen.

[sewitches]

Just to put a little bit japanese insight about Miki.
Recently she is saying she wants to become more cute and be more girly, or how they say, to have joshiryoku.
And in another interview, she said she will not leave the group until she feels she made the group global, or did everything she could do as the global person in charge. These 2 things doesn’t really sound to me as she was planning to leave soon. From what I can see, she is becoming more and more immersed in being an idol generally, not only singing which is what she had always been talking about in interviews before. She is also saying lately, that she has so many opportunities to try new things and she is very thankfull and happy about it.

 
I agree with what you're saying, but looking at the past, we really have to take what the girls say with a grain of salt. For example: Remember when Haruka said she planned on becoming leader and breaking records for the longest tenure because she loved the group so much? Not even two years later did she change her plans and find a new path as the first of her generation to graduate. Same with Riho- while she wasn't as fervent in expressing her desire to ride or die with MM for years and years, she did say she wanted to grow with the group for a while as well, so her graduation announcement was also extremely unexpected. I'm not saying we can't trust the girls' promises for their future plans in the group, but it's funny that girls who are often the shoe-ins for staying because of their enthusiasm end up contradicting their former selves and surprising us. Basically, anything can happen.

Yes, I agree anything can happen and especially when they are in age people grow and make decisions. I just wanted to show that deciding whether she is next only upon: She looks sad, without knowing what she is expressing in her own words lately is a bit unfair to her. No matter what the truth might be.

[ajma93632]

I think Erina might be the next now, based on what she said it seems she's giving up becoming a leader in the future because she thinks Mizuki will be in the group for more time. The 9th gen is about to last for 8 years, and she probably is starting to think about doing something else.

[sewitches]

I think Erina might be the next now, based on what she said it seems she's giving up becoming a leader in the future because she thinks Mizuki will be in the group for more time. The 9th gen is about to last for 8 years, and she probably is starting to think about doing something else.

I actually think the same that the probability for graduation is higher for someone who actually stated what they would like to do after graduation. Like a realistic job. Erina said in the 2019 calendar shooting, she would love to produce a 3 member idol unit. Sounds like something she could actually do in H!P.

[dieudiabo]

I don't know but I want Maachan to become the leader someday. So I hope every Maachan's senpai graduate, in order she can be the leader for a certain amount of time  before her own graduation. 

[otaku2009]

I'm sure like 100 % that it will be Erina or Masaki this year.

[DD7]

Unfortunately I think Eripon will be the next to go, most likely at the end of this year. Ayumi being promoted to sub-leader really gave me that impression. Also I think Mizuki will graduate the following year and Ayumi will become the leader. My prediction would be something like this: 

 

2019: Eripon (fall)

2020: Miki (spring) and Mizuki (fall) 

2021: Maachan (fall)

2022: Ayumi (spring) and Sakura (fall) 

 

(If we get another vocal powerhouse in 15ki I think sakura will leave a lot earlier.)

[Fall]

I have a feeling that Nonaka will be the next out the door...

...could also pull an Aika and stay with H!P for a while until she's fully certain of her future. I just don't see that being as likely...

I'm totally gonna give myself a half-credit for that, even if doing so is barely deserved. At the very least, this gives me some confidence that she'll probably still be in H!P in 2020 whether she stays in the group past December 2019 or not.

 

^I saw it the other way around.  If Erina were graduating, I don't think there would be as much of a reason to try and rope Ayumi into it this early instead of waiting to use it as an announcement in the grad concert.  Assigning Ayumi as co-subleader with Erina after both had previously stated reservations about this scenario, it makes me think that Mizuki may be considering a grad. If the transition of Erina to leader and Ayumi remaining as subleader happens sooner rather than later, it's not a scenario that is prolonged for much longer than either would have wanted. Having the announcement made for Ayumi's "promotion" to subleader before Mizuki announces would also destroy any wiggle-room that Ayumi may have had about not wanting to be subleader after Mizuki's graduation. The alternative in that case would be either Maa-chan or Sakura, and skipping over anyone for either age or seniority would just cause speculation about future grads that may or may not be immediately on the horizon.

 

If they skipped over both Ayumi and Maa and made Sakura the subleader, it would be too indicative that at least one would likely be graduating by the end of the same year.  If they skipped over all 3 and the subleader position went straight to anyone from Nonaka, Kaga, Maria, or Morito (these H!P, MM, CG seniority loops, I swear), people would be expecting a massacre by the end of the year.

 

That said, if Erina becomes leader this year, I fully expect that she will be in the group for over a decade, and quite possibly pass Sayumi's tenure just in time to graduate a month before her 26th birthday.