44 replies to this topic

[RenaiHunter]

10th senbatsu election will give a chance to 100 members to rank. AKB48, SKE48, NMB48, HKT48, NGT48, STU48, JKT48, BNK48 and TPE48 members are eligible to apply.

Appliance period is 23rd-27th March.

[ShiningLight445]

So it's really up to 100? not 1-80? Wow. That's something.

[minaeshi]

^As mentioned above, the girls who did not apply for the elections (courtesy of S48 lol) 

 

A : Iriyama Anna
K : Tano Yuka,
B : Kashiwagi Yuki, Kojima Natsuki
4 : Murayama Yuiri, Okawa Rio,
8 : Sato Nanami, Hayasaka Tsumugi, Yokomichi Yuri, Hirano Hikaru, Yaguchi Moka, Shimoaoki Karin
KKS : -
3rd Draft : -

S : Inuzuka Asana, Tsuzuki Rika, Machi Otoha
KII : Takatsuka Natsuki
E : Ichino Narumi, Goto Rara
KKS : -
3rd Draft : -

N : Ichikawa Miori, Kusaka Konomi, Koga Narumi, Hayashi Momoka, Mita Mao, Yamamoto Sayaka
M : Ando Erina, Ishida Yuumi, Uno Mizuki, Odan Mai, Nakano Reina,
BII : Akashi Natsuko, Okita Ayaka, Yagura Fuuko
3rd draft : -

H : Kodama Haruka, Sashihara Rino, Yamada Marina, Yamamoto Mao
KIV : Imada Mina, Tomiyoshi Asuka, Murashige Anna, Moriyasu Madoka
TII : Yamashita Emiri
3rd draft : -

NIII Kitahara Rie
KKS : Miyajima Aya
3rd draft : - 

STU : -

JKT : all

BIII : Tarwaan, Pupe, Noey, Jane, Nam-Neung, Kaew, Can, Mind, Orn, Namsai, Mobile, Pun, Jib, Korn
KKS : Maysa, Piam

TPE Team Unknown: Kuo Shin-yu, Lin Jie, Chang Yu-lin, Tseng Shih-yu, Lu Yu-ching, Liu Jie-ming, Pan Tzu-yi

TPE KKS. All

*bold* = members who already announced graduation
*italic underline* = members who confirmed that they refuse to participate

 

Everyone else applied. 

[arden]

i was looking at the profiles of the girls who applied (or even on the list of the non-participants), and then it hit... i hardly know anyone now. a very selected few...

 

but this is quite an interesting election. like how would sashihara votes will be distributed... and if jurina gets no1. she'll be the first triple threat: management selected center, jankyen center and then this, elected center!

[ShiningLight445]

Oh, it's totally Jurina for center this year lol. No doubt about that.

 

 

What I'm sad about is Kusaka Konomi declined. I was gonna vote for her I couldn't buy cd's in time last year. Hope this doesn't mean she's graduating.

[RenaiHunter]

Oh, it's totally Jurina for center this year lol. No doubt about that.

I dont think anything is set on stone. Last ssk had some pretty unpredictable outcomes.

We dont know how much more Ogiyuka can rise and we dont know how well Sakura fans are prepared.

From what I've seen last year Jurina fans went all out to make her #1 or #2 so I'm wondering if this year is going to be weaker for her vote wise.

[Ares13]

Quote from last year SSK thread ..

well .. for the Sasshi not running next year ..
it matters to me because this mean that I got to start saving now to fight for no.1 for Sakura

I think we see this Jurina vs Sakura showdown coming as soon as last year SSK ..
It is an rare opportunity for their oshimen to finally experience what it feels like to push your oshimen to no.1 ..
Only 4 other sets of fans have ever experience it ..
So I think the fans will kill themselves and each other for the win .. it is going to be brute ..
I think Sakura is the underdog as Jurin is on another level (to put it in short)

To get that satisfaction, you obviously got be really their oshimen and you got to push till it hurt like hell ..
I got this opportunity but I am in one of my worst financial position in my life now
Furthermore, the feeling of losing is going to hurt a lot if Sakura lose ..
So I dunno .. last year I didn't vote .. I came off without any lost but it was really empty to me ..

But I am ready for the Showroom battle but I still got to see if any of the girls I like is going to take it seriously ..

[minaeshi]

From what I've seen last year Jurina fans went all out to make her #1 or #2 so I'm wondering if this year is going to be weaker for her vote wise.

A lot of her fans were pumped because they knew it would be the last time Jurina could beat her seniors (lol or what's left of them - sasshi, mayu, yukirin), and that's been her goal from the 2nd election, so it was a bittersweet time for them. However they've also seen what can happen when they're too confident in her placements (she ranks high in prelims then lands behind all her seniors EVERY TIME). I don't think her fans could bare the thought of losing to Sakura or even worse, Ogiyuka, when the road to #1 is literally right there. I think she'll break 120k this year. 

 

 

I think we see this Jurina vs Sakura showdown coming as soon as last year SSK ..

It is an rare opportunity for their oshimen to finally experience what it feels like to push your oshimen to no.1 ..
Only 4 other sets of fans have ever experience it ..
So I think the fans will kill themselves and each other for the win .. it is going to be brute ..
I think Sakura is the underdog as Jurin is on another level (to put it in short)

 

I remember my first time voting in the elections, it was in 2011 when my oshimen was Acchan. Literally the most intense period of my idol fan career lmao. I was really young at the time, so I only gave her two votes but the satisfaction i got from knowing I helped her reclaim her throne was so rewarding. I want both Jurina and Sakura fans to experience that kind of moment.. but it can only be one of them lol. 

I don't think we can call Sakura the underdog though. While her votes are about 30k behind Jurina's, multiple elections have shown just how much a girls votes can drastically increase or decrease. We also now know that Sasshi isn't participating so a lot of HKT fans or Sasshi fans might vote for Sakura to keep the SSK winner HKT streak running. She's got the most momentum behind her right now, so I can see her breaking 100k this year. Will it be enough to beat Jurina?....... We might be in for a surprise lol. 

 

But then we have Ogiyuka, the girl who shocked everyone with her placement. She could cause another shock. And Naachan, the girl with the most potential to break into the top 3 especially after that center stint. Even Mion has a chance of causing an uproar (i believe she'll have the "Milky" or "Dasu" effect where her shocking drop back to undergirls has gotten her fans fired up to the max, and she'll break Kami 7 alongside Naachan, just how high? 6th is likely. Dasu and Kaotan are scary lol, so we could easily see three SKE members in kami 7 this year. NMB will do well if they can keep Miru and Akarin in senbatsu, but I do hope for Miru to break into the top 10 (8th would be great). Ahh, this is the first SSK i've been excited for since 2015 lolol 

 

Random thing to note, if we exclude members not participating and graduated/ing members, here are how many members a sister group had in last years senbatsu 

 

AKB - 3

SKE - 5

NMB - 2

HKT - 1

NGT - 2

STU - 1 (naachan)

[Ares13]

I kind of meant that Jurina belongs the legendary pioneer class who brought AKB48 to the top which influence more than a generation and change the culture and standings of idols ..
while Sakura belongs to the class which inherited everything from Jurina's class
Its hard to say for me .. Sasshi votes may go to the HKT48 connection or pioneer class connection .. just like Yukirin votes may go to "years of frustration" Kagoshima connection or pioneer class connection after a year break..

I have lose touch with the sentiment of 48G now ..
So I can't feel the climate of it all ..

But I think NGT48 last year exceptional performance came at a time when hope seem lost and NGT48 provided the new hope for the fans ..
This year I do not know what its going to be ..
It could be the coming of age where as minaeshi said Naachan and Mion will finally arrive ..
or if its going to STU48 break out year after a year of relation building with fans ..
I also wonder if international 48s would make some noise as this year is worldwide ..

[ShiningLight445]

JTK all declined due to Ramadan (May 15th - June 14th). Wanting to specify.

[minaeshi]

^
^Ahh i see what you mean now. Yeah, she definitely has a way to climb when you think of it that way. Despite her age, Jurina is the last remaining 48g member who has consistently ranked in senbatsu since the first elections began. To rise above her would be a win for anyone. Thinking about it now, as much as I don't mind who wins, I would like to see Jurina win because of her legacy. 10 years in the group, over 60+ senbatsu singles and multiple center positions, the start of sister group invasion in akb (lol), essentially leading her group at a young age, I would love to see her be rewarded for her hard work. 10 year SKE anniversary and 10 years in the group, would be fitting to win on the 10th senbatsu elections. 

 

The biased person in me however wants AKB to win but their greatest chances of that are Naachan and Tomu lolol. 

[RenaiHunter]

I honestly want Jurina to win because management always gives her awesome center songs and we need a powerful A side right now. Tenmetsu Pheromone has been one of my most favorite new idol songs.

 

Also some predictions:

HKT will have only 1 senbatsu rep unless Miku, Nako or Mio's fans pull a miracle.

NMB will have 2 reps - Miru & Akarin

SKE will have 5 reps - Jurina, Dasu, Sally, Nao & Churi

NGT will have 2 or 3 reps - Ogiyuka with Hinata/Rika

AKB will have 5 or 6 reps - Yuihan, Naachan, Juri, Mion, Renachi, Yuiyui

 

Also seems like BNK's Cherpang is extremely popular in the country! They hit 60 million views with Koisuru Fortune Cookie on YouTube, which JPN48 really cant do that easy these days. A lot of BNK fans are pumped up to make Cherpang rank in senbatsu! I'm not sure if they can achieve that, but I think she has good chances to rank in Undergirls at least!

[ShiningLight445]

I will vote for Cherprang Trying to figure out anyway how much I'm gonna buy this year. I couldn't last year due to lack of funds to do so haha. Got plenty of time to think....

[Ares13]

well .. it is going to be held in Nagoya Dome ..
Basically, they can just hand the no.1 trophy to Jurina now and start making product with her as the no.1
I guess it should be about as fair as Jurina Janken win

Such a lovely story which has already been prophesize ..
On the 10th anniversary of SKE48, Jurina will win SSK at a venue in Nagoya ..

[minaeshi]

Let's be honest, we all knew it was going to be held in Nagoya, even with the dumb "fan picked" venue. 

[RenaiHunter]

They would never dare to rig ssk, because if its uncovered the scandal will be bigger than any dating so far.
SKE fans probably voted very hard for it, and maybe not just them because Nagoya Dome is pretty nice location.

Also Im pretty sure Jurina is ought to win it, because she was still 30k votes ahead of Sakura last year.

[Ares13]

LOL .. actually SSK is much easier to rig than Janken ..

Janken you need to coordinate a bunch of people.. 

But SSK is as easy as getting a geek with a code generator behind a PC
People like to think that they got to do it to the results which is the most secure point ..
They can just simply get a stack of the voting coupon or generate a bunch of extra secret codes .. and vote legally themselves since there is no way to trace the coupon codes to match with the actual CD sold ..
Furthermore, the tool is basically just money which will go back to the same pockets
They do not have to really kill themselves given that it so close .. an extra of 50K would seal the deal ..
well .. they may have a history of overkill which result in overkill results

[RenaiHunter]

Agencies do spend money on votes for their members, but they do not spend that much and they dont do it forever. If they were "overkilling" dont you think Renachi, Annin, Mako and many more push attempts would be in senbatsu by now? They are still struggling in undergirls and barely moving positions.

They do not have profit in overvoting because if a girl isnt that popular then she won't make them money to restore what they have spend on her.

[Ares13]

Actually .. I am clowning ..
I am using these just to troll my SKE48 Jurina fan good friend ..
 
Anyway, I could answer that but it got to be taken in the right mindset ..
Going back to the Acchan and Yuko rivalry and the emergent  of Sasshi ..
all these actually in the end generated more profits for them ..
would 48G be as great as they are if there was never an Acchan and Yuko rivalry?
or would 48G be still relevant now if there isn't a Sasshi at the top for those years?
 
But in all .. if there is doubt .. anyone could have started doubting them years ago..
But it wouldn't be fun and honestly there is nothing to benefit from it ..
 
In my earlier post, I already said that this is an opportunity for the fans to get the taste of getting their oshimen to no.1 ..
Now there is an added storyline opportunity for Jurina fans ..
If you ask me what is my greatest moment as an idol fan in more than 10 years ..
It would still be original team 4 getting no.1 with Hashire! Penguin in request hour after their disband the year before ..
furthermore, the previous year request hour they totally bomb out .. so they went from nothing to no.1
(that was the first year where the winning song get an MV which made everything so well set up .. but nah .. not going to destroy my special moment )
It is the tough storyline moment that is most precious because it is really hard to achieve ..

So getting Jurina to no.1 on the 10th anniversary of SKE48 in Nagoya Dome is a perfect storyline setup ..
Therefore the fans would work harder to make it happen ..
Jurina has been around for so long and have been seen as part of the pioneering AKB48 ..
She got fans not only in Nagoya .. but all over Japan and around the world ..
Furthermore, she always been ahead of Sakura .. so she should win it ..

The only thing that can stop it from happening is what I am doing ..
Getting Jurina fans to be complacent thinking that it is already won ..

lastly ..
Since it is in Nagoya .. no.1 no longer matter to me ..
My 48G kami-oshimen is a Aichi girl in SKE48 ..
But she is a 3rd draft girl so there is so little chance ..
But I would also love to get a storyline moment if I can get her to place in top 100 ..
I mean how many draft girls have gotten a place after being in the group for less that half a year?
I think Honochan is special .. but I would love the fans to help her be even more special