405 replies to this topic

[Fall]

I started to go through what I wanted to say about the underdog effect, but it all felt familiar, so I went back to a post I made in August and copied it instead with the most relevant portions in bold. 

 

Spoiler

Fallacia, on 17 Aug 2016 - 22:24, said:

I've found to best way to look at H!P and UF is as if they were a wrestling promotion.  Everything is internalized and they can make up the rules as they go to suit a storyline and put over their talent in whatever way they choose.  Who gets the debut/gets promo(tion), or wins the (right to) belt?  That's scripted based entirely on which talent and which story the promotion thinks will put butts in the seats and drive merchandise sales.  In the end, when all of the labels/distributors you use are owned by your parent company, the only difference between an indie debut and a major debut is whether or not you choose to promote them and sign them with a label that you own.  H!P isn't averse to creating a "struggling" group so that they can tell a story where their girls overcome their obstacles and work hard to finally land a successful single or Budokan performance.

 

There are arguments that can be made about the large individual popularity of Kobushi members like Hamaura when Kobushi Factory was first formed, but in the end, the company promoted them while they were arguably less prepared than Tsubaki is now and became successful for it.  The only indication of struggle is seemingly one manufactured to create fan sympathy and feed into a more driven rivalry narrative between Kobushi and Tsubaki for a later story likely culminating in a (pay per view finish) Budokan performance for one or both groups.  I personally don't complain about new members because, whether I like it or not, adding new members at any point is a form of promotion and shows the agency's interest in the group.  They can use it to forward a narrative and utilize more of their talent to get everyone over, just like adding members to a stable in wrestling is supposed to make everyone more popular than the success they can likely achieve solely on their own.

 

(Insert HG Razor Ramon reference here) Hoo!

 

Wrestling comparisons never fail me.  I'm just glad that the reality shaped up with better results than even I expected.

[sukibeam]

Day 3 @ #7 (3rd sold 2,022)

[Ares13]

^
^ .. er actually .. I disagree ..
What you said may be true when Tsunku was in control ..

He love to use S/mileage for the underdog story ..
Scolding them for not being as good as other members ..
making them do small live then sending them to Budokan ..
But guess what.. it did not work ..

S/mileage was rename to ANGERME .. they added the probably best featured face and best vocal they had in that cohort of KSS ..
Then the next 2 new members they added are winners in their own right ..
So no more underdog but of course the 2nd gen fans can't get past the "underdog complex" like the 1st gen fans can't get past the "dream team complex"
sometimes we really had to just let it go ..

He created rivalry which work for Berryz with C-ute which they really tried very hard to sell that idea ..
and it worked for a while but the groups really took off when they stop the rivalry and go their own direction..

So it does not work now ..

Simply why split the fans to 2 parties when you can get all the fans to support both groups ..
To me they did a great job at concentrating a group at a time .. to build one group up before focusing on the other ..
I think they thought about their selling point and direction and added the 3 girls in the direction they want to group to be ..

To me . TF really became a group when they added the 3 new girls .. completing the group
On Oricon .. with the new rules .. they are not only going to sell more than CG but ANGERME too ..
I think it is just good timing and good promotion together with the lessons learned while restarting ANGERME, reviving CG and starting KF ..

Both group are just so different .. so you can have go for both at the same time ..

Basically .. when they started 2 groups from KSS and name both group with factory names in it and placing the more prominent members in one group making the other group look like leftovers ..
Everyone of us knows or think we know that they are doing the rivalry underdog thing ..

In the end .. I think H!P don't deserve to be celebrating their 20 years anniversary if they reuse old tricks or do something that is so obvious to the fans ..
They actually build a new group that is different, going a different direction and style ..

[JennyInTokyo]

I also have to say I didn't have much faith in the group and I didn't think their first single would do well but they've blown it out of the water! I love Hatsukoi Sunrise as a song, I haven't listened to the other A-sides yet, and the sales have been amazing! I guess keeping them in the indie's phase for a little longer had a better pay off in the end! I hope the girls continue to improve and become a great asset to H!P! And btw does Hatsukoi Sunrise give them Berryz vibes in their earlier music? It just reminds me of them.

[Ares13]

Honestly .. I knew they will do well .. I would be surprise if they didn't ..

They basically took all the time and opportunity to promote the single ..
I got my singles from my handshake with them at MM Budokan last year, the show that announce the 13th gen
Yup it was that long ..

But honestly I would be lying if I say I was excited about their debut as there were just so little on them ...
I was like everyone else .. I wasn't expecting much from them .. thinking of them as underdog and struggler..

Then I when met them .. I got blown away .. simply because they are extremely pretty, friendly, warm and very sincere to their fans ..
They look like they have been at it for years ..
excluding C-ute and MM who are on another level ..
I have never met KF .. but I have met ANGERME, J=J and CG ..
I would rate TF better than ANGERME and CG for handshake .. with J=J still better than TF..

Then after handshaking with them .. they perform at the MM concert ..
when they came out .. they were in such pretty outfits .. and it is overwhelming ..

I am lucky as I am a foreigner and don't stay in Japan ..
and I don't understand Japanese so I can't communicate with them ..
But If I am a Japanese fan .. I would have kill myself to support them ..
Because I would have tried very hard to have more meetings with them..

I think we focus too much on abilities, quality of songs or even individual member prominence ..
and forgot that the idol do have powers if they score during fan meets with a nice performance ..
The group played by their advantage which is looks .. but it is useless if they can't use it well ..
They did a good job by being really sweet to their fans and deliver a product that would really overwhelm with looks ..

I really credit whoever is in charge as they played to their advantage and score well ..

[keaine]

Oricon Day 4

#4

 

(#3 is at 5,015) 

[DomScatterbrain]

Whoa their hype trains knows no brake!

Spoiler

I would rate TF better than ANGERME and CG for handshake .. with J=J still better than TF..

Well, they were praised and very well-known by many for their hospitality and professionalism on handshake event, right?

[mizukingdom1]

I think a lot of people (including myself) are forgetting that Tsubaki Factory have been a group for almost 2 years now, so if they weren't selling so well or that "professional" then it would be a big problem.

 

Because they have had a lot of practice with THREE indies singles and even ONE mini album. lol it took me a while to realize that 

[miyooooons]

This person managed to completely separate the vocal track from the instrumental! It sounds so clean and cool. The girls did a great job.

[keaine]

Oricon Day 5

#7

 

(#3 at 3,324)

[vutt]

I'm obviously way off the pace here, but what's up with that "Camellia Factory" thing on background banner?

New name or marketing name in english?!?

[Juandalyn]

They do the same with Kobushi, their banner has "Magnolia Factory" written on it too. So I guess it's marketing, like translating song titles into English.

[Obsidian]

They wanted to ensure Kobushi would be translated as the flower into English not the other meaning.

[Juandalyn]

Yeah, that basically is marketing. Kobushi can be translated as fist, Tsubaki means spit or something. So they use the English name as well, to avoid confusion, as they went with hiragana instead of kanji for the original name.

[SailorKame]

so around 50k is more or less confirmed??? With all the changes to the way sales are calculated I don't know if this a true number or not... If it's 'real', it's crazy that they've almost done close to half of MM's last single sales. I thought all the songs in the single were great, but I guess I just didn't know how great.

[keaine]

^ depends on which ranking you're talking about

 

if we're talking about the oricon ranking, no they most likely won't reach 50k first week, for the moment (still waiting for Sunday's ranking, the sales are between 25,712 (which is the first day sales) and 40,220 (which is their first day sales + the sales of those ranked 3rd for the other days [since they ranked below 3rd for the other days]).

If I would make an educated guess, I'd say they are between 30k and 35k (70% sure).

 

if we're talking about the billboard ranking, then most likely, yes (I don't think we have daily figures for this ranking other than the one given in the previous page, so I can't say much more).

 

In both cases, they don't quite reach half of Morning Musume。's sales (which are around 100k for the oricon one and around 160k for the billboard one).

[taylorniw]

50k would be difficult even if it has some stay time on the chart. Idol sales usually drop over 95% in the second week and it doesn't get better from there. Kobushi's last single charted for nine weeks but the first week still made up 87% of the total number.

[keaine]

Oricon Day 6

#5

 

(#3 at 3,452)

 

And that's it for the first week folks.

[Obsidian]

http://www.billboard.../detail/48063/2

 

Figures out for the week #2 - 54,376

 

Excellent for a debut single and puts them right around the same kind of numbers the other established H!P groups are getting on Billboard.

[midnightbottle]

Great, pretty nice sales for the group. Here's hoping they can consistently do well.