210 replies to this topic

[Amoz]

Prelim results:

http://sousenkyo.akb....jp/sokuhou.php

[Krusha]

Very interesting results here. I know it's too early to tell for sure, but the higher positions have always been a decent indicator at least.

 

Here's last years preliminaries: http://www.akb48.co....gle/sokuhou.php
 

Last year Sasshii had 37.5k while Mayuyu had 25.3k in preliminary, while this year Sasshii has 38.1k and Mayuyu has 29.9k...

 

For the Top 80 showing in this years preliminary round there are a total of 686,163 votes, while total for last year was 518,384...

[Krusha]

In text form:

Spoiler

AKB48 41stシングル 選抜総選挙速報結果

アップカミングガールズ:16名(65位～80位)
第80位　大家 志津香 3,635票AKB48 Team A
第79位　宮崎 美穂3,640票 AKB48 Team A
第78位　竹内 彩姫 3,836票SKE48 Team KII
第77位　福岡 聖菜 3,845票 AKB48 Team B
第76位　高城 亜樹3,886票 AKB48 Team K
第75位　渋谷 凪咲3,906票 NMB48 Team BII
第74位　後藤 泉 3,942票 HKT48 Team KIV
第73位　北川 綾巴 4,003票 SKE48 Team S
第72位　惣田 紗莉渚 4,121票SKE48 Team KII
第71位　大島 涼花 4,126票AKB48 Team B
第70位　酒井 萌衣4,218票 SKE48 Team E
第69位　斉藤 真木子4,226票 SKE48 Team E
第68位　宮前 杏実4,244票 SKE48 Team S
第67位　駒田 京伽4,265票 HKT48 Team H
第66位　江籠 裕奈 4,355票 SKE48 Team KII
第65位　大和田 南那 4,376票AKB48 Team A

フューチャーガールズ:16名(49位～64位)
第64位　内山 奈月4,520票 AKB48 Team B
第63位　薮下 柊4,540票 NMB48 Team BII
第62位　矢倉 楓子4,565票 NMB48 Team M
第61位　大矢 真那4,624票 SKE48 Team S
第60位　峯岸 みなみ 4,719票AKB48 Team K
第59位　岩田 華怜4,843票 AKB48 Team A
第58位　松岡 菜摘 4,895票HKT48 Team H
第57位　木﨑 ゆりあ4,904票 AKB48 Team B
第56位　小嶋 菜月4,908票 AKB48 Team A
第55位　冨吉 明日香4,915票 HKT48 Team KIV
第54位　向井地 美音 4,944票AKB48 Team K
第53位　熊崎 晴香4,972票 SKE48 Team E
第52位　下野 由貴 5,005票HKT48 Team KIV
第51位　梅本 まどか5,255票 SKE48 Team E
第50位　佐々木 優佳里5,264票 AKB48 Team A
第49位　日高 優月5,414票 SKE48 Team KII

ネクストガールズ:16名(33位～48位)
第47位 秋吉 優花 5,467票HKT48 Team H
第47位 磯原 杏華 5,467票SKE48 Team E
第46位 加藤 るみ 5,610票 SKE48 Team E
第45位 東 李苑 5,615票 SKE48 Team S
第44位 沖田 彩華 5,860票 NMB48 Team M
第43位 篠崎 彩奈 6,018票 AKB48 Team K
第42位 岡田 彩花 6,110票 AKB48 Team 4
第41位 田野 優花 6,201票 AKB48 Team K
第40位 岡田 栞奈 6,325票 HKT48 Team KIV
第39位 加藤 夕夏 6,515票 NMB48 Team N
第38位 石田 安奈 6,573票 SKE48 Team KII
第37位 込山 榛香 6,609票 AKB48 Team 4
第36位 武藤 十夢 6,652票 AKB48 Team K
第35位 茂木 忍 6,709票 AKB48 Team K
第34位 上西 恵 6,742票 NMB48 Team N
第33位 鎌田 菜月 6,757票 SKE48 Team E

アンダーガールズ:16名(17位～32位)
第32位 須田 亜香里 6,866票 SKE48 Team E
第31位 木本 花音 7,051票 SKE48 Team E
第30位 朝長 美桜 7,069票 HKT48チームKIV / AKB48チーム4兼任
第29位 神志那 結衣 7,136票 HKT48 Team H
第28位 後藤 理沙子 7,566票 SKE48 Team S
第27位 田島 芽瑠 7,698票 HKT48 Team H
第26位 岡田 奈々 8,130票 AKB48 Team 4
第25位 加藤 玲奈 8,182票 AKB48 Team B
第24位 森保 まどか 8,313票 HKT48 Team KIV
第23位 高橋 朱里 8,377票 AKB48 Team 4
第22位 古畑 奈和 8,540票 SKE48 Team KII
第21位 大森 美優 8,655票 AKB48 Team 4
第20位 横山 由依 8,667票 AKB48 Team A
第19位 二村 春香 10,054票 SKE48 Team S
第18位 渡辺 美優紀 10,090票 NMB48チームBII / AKB48チームB兼任
第17位 坂口 理子 10,516票 HKT48 Team H

41stシングル 選抜メンバー:16名(1位～16位)
第16位 高柳 明音 11,382票 SKE48 Team KII
第15位 渕上 舞 11,637票 HKT48 Team KIV
第14位 松村 香織 11,746票 SKE48 Team KII
第13位 宮澤 佐江 12,225票 SNH48チームSII / SKE48チームS兼任
第12位 宮脇 咲良 13,169票 HKT48チームKIV / AKB48 チームA兼任
第11位 谷 真理佳 14,324票 SKE48 Team E
第10位 北原 里英 14,476票 NGT48
第9位 柴田 阿弥 15,667票 SKE48 Team E
第8位 兒玉 遥 15,722票 HKT48チームH / AKB48 チームK兼任
第7位 島崎 遥香 17,921票 AKB48 Team A
第6位 高橋 みなみ 21,900票 AKB48 Team A
第5位 山本 彩 22,532票 NMB48チームN / AKB48チームK兼任
第4位 松井 珠理奈 26,901票 SKE48チームS/ AKB48チームK 兼任
第3位 渡辺 麻友 29,924票 AKB48 Team B
第2位 柏木 由紀 33,426票 AKB48チームB / NGT48兼任
第1位 指原 莉乃 38,151票 HKT48 Team H

[Krusha]

For those of you who have premium Nicodouga membership, you can watch the stream showing prelim results, from AKB, SKE, NMB, and HKT theaters here: http://ch.nicovideo.jp/AKB48-niconama

Some very awesome and funny reactions at specific places. Stream only shows audio from theater it's in, plus AKB48 theater, so you need to watch separate videos for the different reactions.

Edit:

Having watched all, I have to say it was ...different watching the NMB video. You could see from the expression of the girls, manager, fans - as well as read the reactions from NMB fans watching - that this was not a good result at all for them. Very disappointing results for them.

[kurebesu]

 

[ShiningLight445]

I was shocked to see no Team 8 members listed. No Nagi!! And that is sad for NMB I hope there will be more votes!!

 

I'm reading on tumblr translated G+ posts from the girls. I feel so sad for Hillary, coming from a fellow girl from the US. I wish I had more money to buy one more copy and give her a vote

 

 

 

So Iwata Karen says this is her last election???

 

http://renkamusume.tumblr.com/

[LovelyPrincessP]

Sayanee crying like that is something I can live without seeing ever again. Damn, that was brutal. 

 

SKE is out for the slaughter, even after losing some key members and having Rena bow out they're still dominating. Bananas. 

[Krusha]

SKE48 has always had extremely dedicated fans, that is for sure. In short, the girls there who manages to connect with their fans have a rock-solid fan-base that is willing to go far to support them.

 

I am very surprised to see Marika for example rank in at #11 which is beyond amazing, even if it's just the preliminary round. I think in her case, she has retained both her original fan-base in HKT48, but she's so aggressive (in a good way) that she has gotten a lot of fans in SKE48 already, and it looks like she will have a dynamite election now.

 

Not really too sure why it doesn't manifest differently with NMB48. For example, their top girls (ignoring Sayanee and Milky) just don't make that much of a dent outside of their own group. I don't think HKT48 will have 16 girls ranking in come main election event, but even so, with just the preliminary, it shows that they have movement. NMB48 however just doesn't replicate this in the same way. Why? What is it that makes them like this? If the answer is that "Osaka is different", then why not "Fukuoka is different" as well? Right now, a lot of HKT48 girls have far better movement than NMB48 girls. Their ace Mirurun didn't even rank. When I watched the Nico stream of results being shown in NMB48 theater, you could start to see when the NMB48 girls collectively looked more and more disappointed, and fans of course texting in the Nico stream as well. There were so many Mirurun comments, like "She will rank high" even up to when senbatsu positions were starting to get announced. But when Marika was announced, and they got further up, the messages changed character, because now the really big heavy hitters were being announced, and people realized Mirurun won't even rank at all... Of course, she can rank come election day, but it's not a good indication if you're supposed to be popular, to not show on first day...

 

And yeah... SKE48 with almost as many girls as AKB48. Crazy.

[alohano]

These results completely suck as far as I'm concerned.  I'm beyond bummed out.  The "idols you can meet" concept is killing me...as NMB48 is just not representing. 

[satchan]

So the definition of an extremely dedicated fanbase is to allow your favorite group's sales to decline (SKE) or come to a complete standstill (HKT) so that you can buy more singles by someone who's not your favorite group? But the group that has seen more of an increase in sales has a poor fanbase because they don't. That is a messed up definition of dedication. 

 

I'm frustrated at the results because of the NMB girls being upset, but NMB fans are still spoiled on NMB and I'm not sure how that changes as long as there's an isolation between NMB and the AKS run groups. NMB fans don't have an incentive to care about AKB and AKB fans don't really have a reason to care about anyone but NMB's aces because of the kennin system, and even then, their involvement in AKB besides Sayaka and Milky is about as much as Yukirin's involvement in NMB.

 

Also, the only reason anyone cares about the crying thing is because it was Sayaka. It was a great calculative move, so we'll see how many fans it inspires. I know it didn't inspire me because I have no control over what happens to anyone besides Kanakichi, and even then, I'm a terrible fan who's only voting four times, so that's proof enough that I don't care enough about her. 

[droopy10]

I'm pretty surprised at the results so far. Happy for Karen, Tani, and Kitarie.

 

I think HKT48 can get 16+ members in, Rabutan, Aoi, NakoMiku still have a very good chance to still rank. Just my hopes as an HKT48 fan.

 

The link above is dead, anyone know where I can watch it? Would be great if that ends up on the tracker.

 

Would it be on the LODs from yesterday?

[Krusha]

droopy10,
 
It is most likely from yesterday's LODs yes. Team A, Team S, Team N, and Team H performances.
 
 
satchan,

The election concerns itself with the fate of individual members from the 48 groups. So, considering this, and considering how all of the girls wants to a.) Rank in or rank in as high as they possibly can, they also b.) want their own groups to have a solid showing overall.

Thus, discussing total sales of each groups when it comes to single or album sales is slightly off (think of "dedication" as a pie-chart, with different slices called "album", "single", "DVD/BD", "concerts", RH", "election", "HS", "2shot", etc.).

 

With regards to the election, results concerning individual girls is what everybody talks about. If one group has twice as many girls representing than the other, or more than three times as many girls representing, then it's clear that they are having very strong results.

We have three groups that are not based in Tokyo. Of these three groups, one group is not like the other two. They just don't have as strong a showing in the elections like the other groups. Considering that there are two other groups - just like NMB48 - that does not come from Tokyo, it can't really be that "they're not from Tokyo".

Up until now, SKE48 has sold more than NMB48. So far, NMB48 has yet to sell a single with over 600k copies. Perhaps they will one day, who knows. But they are pretty even, as far as sales figures are concerned these days. SKE48 had higher sales figures before, and this was before 48 groups as a whole started to decline in sales. And speaking of decline, it's then very impressive of HKT48 to be at a "complete standstill", when they too could be declining single by single...

The election represents a very good opportunity for exposure, which results in more promotion and of course opportunities. We can see that with special occasions like the election, the Janken tournament, and various events, certain girls have their moment - which makes them noticeable - and it's then possible that they get real momentum, which helps for future growth. Future growth, even if individual, can bring attention to the group.

If these things weren't important, then reactions from the Japanese fans yesterday would be very different, and the reactions from the girls as well in particular would also be very different. But we know that these things are in fact important, so again the question goes back to this: How come NMB48 does not have as many representatives as HKT48, or more as it really should be, considering their age as a group? I would say that the election is not about "caring about AKB48", it is about caring about your oshimen, your favorites. Why then are NMB48 fans not voting for their oshimen as well as others seemingly are?

Perhaps they just don't care too much about the election, and that's a fair deal of course!

What we do know, is that SKE48 girls themselves, and SKE48 fans, wants more distance between themselves and the other 48 groups - perhaps similar to the 'isolation' you mention with regards to NMB48. Yet, SKE48 girls wants to rank in high at the election, and SKE48 fans do their very best in making sure this happens. HKT48 as well seems to be coming on strong now doing the same, having good results so far.

Over and over during the streams from the different theaters, there were comments from fans regarding SKE48 and HKT48 that they are "so strong", "impressive results", etc. But the tone was different with NMB48. NMB48 fans themselves asked what's wrong, what is going on, this is really bad, and so on... So if they don't want these results, then do something about it. Otherwise there's no need to care at all about any kind of result. That said, if the girls really don't like these results, and if they want to rank in, but the fans as a whole are not doing anything about it, then certainly dedication as a whole can be put into question, even if it may sound harsh to some. And mind you this is not me pointing any finger at anybody, this is a more general question regarding a fandom as a whole, and not individuals. And this question has been asked by many Japanese as well recently.

Another issue: Look at the top girls of NMB48 that are not Sayanee and Milky. Where are they? Either far down on the preliminary rank or not ranking in at all. I am sure things may change come election day, but if not, it's a sign that, if you are in NMB48 or go to NMB48, it is even harder to break out in general in terms of success. You may be successful in NMB48, but outside of it is another story. So there's an extra step the girls need to deal with there, as opposed to the other groups, where success outside of their own groups is not necessarily easier, but more possible.

Lastly, I think it's rather peculiar to call Sayanee tearing up and crying, for a "great calculative move", as I am rather sure she wasn't putting on a cynical act, but actually really did cry because she didn't like what she had just seen. But maybe that's just me.

[pink-ku]

I thought it is here already, but nope. A nice summary for the prelim result plus by the team total: members and votes. NMB definitely behind.

http://gekirena.tumb...batsu-sousenkyo

>
SKE: Rena's votes have to go somewhere, Rena's voters can't just suddenly all not voting. Mostlikely to SKE, perhaps to Tani.

[Yasser96]

Where's KojiMako on the prelim results??? I thought she was quite popular, so it's really shocking. I'm going to wait and see and hopefully she makes it to senbatsu.

[Krusha]

She's not there. I'd be very surprised if she doesn't rank at all, but senbatsu sounds very difficult. Undergirls would be a more realistic top-goal, but we shall see

[pink-ku]

Fuji TV to live broadcast AKB48 4th Senbatsu General Election 2015, the theme will be "Parental bond"

http://akb48-daily.b...-akb48-4th.html

Jun 6 SAT at 6:30 pm

Theme: Members and parents.

http://bakadsan.tumb...lky0919-akb48-7

[Ares13]

LOL .. ok .. my engine for election is starting now ..
I have been busy with exams until 20 May ..
I needed a break after grinding so many late nights of studying ..
Furthermore .. I am a old man .. it really suck to have to study so old guess I got to pay for not working hard enough to get a degree when I was younger

I am so noob that I didn't know the preliminary result is out .. lol
I just started to read everyone's comment on it
ok .. my analysis mode is turned on now

Firstly .. it is only the preliminary result ..
I can tell you the oldest trick in the book if your oshimen has something to fight for is to vote after the preliminary result ..
You would want to wait after the preliminary result because you want the people voting against you to be complacent ..
So i think NMB48 fans are known to be a smart lot .. to me it is a strategic move ..
Basically the only person who would fight during preliminary result are those who know their oshimen has little chance ..
They want to get their oshimen name on the list at least for this moment because this ranking stands until the result more 2 weeks later..

Secondly .. you got look at the date and time ..
My theater singles are only shipped out on 18 May ..
The voting start on 19 May ..and the preliminary result is on 20 May ..
So when do you think is the cut off for the preliminary result?
I can't spot the date on their official document .. those silly Japanese didn't put the date on it when they sign it .. so much for standards ..
You can assume it can cutoff as early as end of 19 May or as late as somewhere mid-day of 20 May ..
So do you think if you got 1000 single and you live in Osaka .. could you get the single which probably come from Tokyo which was send out on 18 May and reach your place by the 19 May and you unwrap 1000 copies to vote on a weekday where you got work the next day?
Basically it is physically near impossible for NMB48 fans and HKT48 fans base in their own region to receive and vote in time for the preliminary result ..
SKE48 is in Aichi which is much nearer to Tokyo ..
So i would think that most of the NMB48 and HKT48 votes come from people from Tokyo area or people voting with non-single votes from mobile and LOD subscription..

So that is my thoughts so far for the preliminary result ..

Next about SKE48 fans .. their dedication don't come from normal sales basically normal stuff.. it come from the purpose of the fight ..
which mean .. if they will only go crazy and be stupid when there is something worth fighting for ..
further to that .. their sales relation to handshake is different..
I think I wrote about it before ..
SKE48 are less single minded on their oshimen .. they care for the girls who are not their oshimen or less popular ..
That's why the most successful KKS is from SKE48 .. that's why you get more self-made idols in SKE48 ..and that's why you get quite a bit of surprise election result of "unlikely" girls for SKE48 for past result..
Their theater version only allow for handshake with one members while their regular allow handshake for more than 1 member ..
They have more regular handshakes than theater handshakes events .. and they like to go for all events ..
So it is more worthwhile to buy the more expensive regular version .. but being more expensive means less copies ..
Furthermore, regular versions can be bought after the first week so they can spread their expenses ..

To me .. my impression of the 48G are ..
For AKB48 and NMB48 .. they are more oshimen minded .. they would go full power on their oshimen ..
But for SKE48 and HKT48 .. they are more group minded .. they spread their love but only do it for their oshimen when it counts ..
So to me the reason for SKE48 and HKT48 poorer sales as the main part of the sales figure are from theater version which favors more oshimen minded fandom ..
while regular version favor the more group minded fandom .. which actually generate less sales ..
I am not sure but we are all quite well knowledgeable here .. how often you hear stories of a fan with a couple of hundreds or a thousand handshake tickets for 1 idol?
Then think about it .. does this happen to AKB48 and NMB48 more .. or does it happen to SKE48 and HKT48 more?
Anyway .. that's my opinion

Lastly .. i am not ignoring the fact that Tokyo and Osaka is bigger than Aichi and Fukuoka ..
And AKB48 and NMB48 are better at promotion ..

[Ares13]

Ok more analysis ..
This is single sales up to last day of the week .. which there is only the final tabulation for the week not counted which for AKB48 is around slightly more than 10K

Forgot to add: #1 with 21,502, and total of 1,652,242.

This means it is very close to Labrador Retriever which sold 1,662,265 for week 1
This would mean the votes count should be close for this year as in last year ..

Last year result .. the one who got 80th and held up the pack is Oshima Ryoka with 9,561 votes and 76th to 80th are all less than 10K
So we can say that those who got more than 10K votes should already secure a place in the election ..

Base on the preliminary result..
Tani Marika
第11位 谷 真理佳 14,324票 SKE48 Team E
Fuchigami Mai
第15位 渕上 舞 11,637票 HKT48 Team KIV
These girls should already secure a place in the senbatsu election for the first time after being unplaced for 2 previous senbatsu election ..
I can almost congratulate them now ..

Omori Miyu
第21位 大森 美優 8,655票 AKB48 Team 4
She look really close .. good chance she would get that little bit more vote and get a place too ..
So she got a good chance to get a place for the first time after being unplaced for 3 previous senbatsu election ..

Kojina Yui
第29位 神志那 結衣 7,136票 HKT48 Team H
Goto Risako
第28位 後藤 理沙子 7,566票 SKE48 Team S
These are the dark horse .. they have a chance to place for the first time too
Kojina Yui would be her first after being unplaced for 2 previous senbatsu election
and for Goto Risako would be her first after being unplaced for 5 previous senbatsu election with she not participating for last year senbatsu election..OMG I hope she does get it

Goto Risako was a SKE48 3rd gen and has been in SKE48 since 2009 ..she is one of the 5 left of her gen if you count Yuria ..
She is the only one left in her gen to never gotten a place at senbatsu election
She was never a popular member and look to be on her way out as she was around so long and more so she did participate in last year election ..
I haven't been following so I dunno if anything special along the way for this year ..
I hope she gets it as this is going to be close.. now this the dedication from SKE48 fans we are talking about..

[ShiningLight445]

Election Book cover is out! 

Releases 13th May: http://www.cdjapan.c...t/NEOBK-1794165

 

 

So, I purchased this book. So happy I did!

 

It reads like a normal Japanese book, as one would expect. The "back" is the front and the "front" is the back. Well, you know

Anyways, on the back inside cover is an ad for Koko ga Rhodes da, Koko de tobe! album and displays all 3 versions. Which is fine. On the back, they have an ad for the 40th single of course. However...

 

They made a big mistake!! For Types A and B they had the covers for the album, instead of the single