Why does everyone predict Tsubaki to do better than Kobushi? To me it seems like Kobushi is miles ahead of Tsubaki. The members are more talented and more experienced and they seem more interesting when it comes to their personalities. I feel like the only thing Tsubaki has going for it is that they're going for a more traditional feminine idol vibe, which seems to work the best in terms of popularity. But apart from that Kobushi has got them beat by just about everything.
I think people are just grasping at how Berryz and C-ute were, at the beginning it seemed like C-ute had 0% chance of ever beating Berryz, but once they they dropped a few members they jumped ahead.
Morning Musume: Sales start to drop as the group stales. They garner a fair bit of attention for the 60th but sales drop back to 90k/100k for 61st. Harunan graduates and the group gradually starts appearing on more and more TV shows. 13ki includes a really talented singer.
Angerme: Kanon graduates and after some time 4th gen come. Rina/Meimi leave group. Dawa graduates to look further into art but not as soon as expected.
C-ute: Continue in HP and then after a while, move to UF till they disband after a year or so. Sales rise steadily.
Juice=Juice: Yuka leaves, continue as 4nin group. Sales rise steadily like C-ute.
Country Girls: 2nd single isn’t as popular as the first although they still get decent sales. When Momoko graduates (and this isn’t for a while yet) they add a couple of KSS girls.
Kobushi Factory: They receive a fair bit of attention for their drama tie-in but their debut isn’t as good as their 1st indies (I hope I’m wrong about this!) Another 'steadily growing sales' group rather than a 'one hit wonder' one.
Tsubaki Factory: Releases singles under the shadow of Kobushi until they have a super popular one that accidentally sells really well.
These are all pretty general, and for some of them I want to be wrong. I want yukanyan to stay in JJ for forever
Morning Musume: No large increase or decrease in sales; the fans will keep buying the singles but due to a lack of image and variety appearances they won't pick up many new fans.
C-ute: Will be sticking around for a while longer and create a stronger mature image. Sales will slightly rise, as core fans will keep buying their singles and their age and 'artists' image will attract people who are not conventionally into idol groups.
Juice=Juice: Will be getting some good singles and rise in popularity. Expected to pick up a large amount of for C-ute fans when the group leaves H!P.
Angerme: Their upcoming singles will do mediocre and Takui will be asked to share a refreshing song, which will revitalize the group somewhat. After Kanon and Wada's graduate the group image will change to very little success. Wada will be missed.
Country Girls: Will remain in the spotlight, remain popular and pick up a large amount of fans. Expected to get 2 more well-selling singles until sales drop (but still remain steady).
Kobushi Factory: Mediocre sales due to the lack of a strong image and failing to expand their fanbase beyond the hardcore wota. Lack of outstanding members will result in Up Front trying to set up opportunities in order to show off their personalities. Bad results will put the group into a position where they're put on H!P's back burner and not much money will be spend on promoting them. Will be grouped with Tsubaki in contests to spice up interaction, increase entertainment value and to give the groups a unique position in H!P as 'rivals'.
I thought about the graduations. More under the spoiler since it's independent from what I'll write after that.
Spoiler
I think it's possible that no one will graduate MM (for example) until another generation comes in - because then there will be at least 14 girls, and I think that's the point when they want to make the group smaller. That ANGERME graduation leak worried me a bit too, because they don't really need more than 8 members - except if someone else is going to graduate any time soon, too. Nobody will leave °C-ute individually, I think if they go anywhere then they graduate as a group. For J=J I don't know, Yuka and Tomoko are a bit older but Yuka doesn't seem like she is working towards another profession, so she could as well stay in the group for 5 more years (bringing her age up to where Ai or Sayumi left MM and H!P). A Kobushi or Tsubaki graduation seems unlikely, except if someone pulls an Uta.
The graduations that are very likely to happen the next 5 years are:
Momoko. They basically said that she'll only stay for some time.
At least one MM girl. I doubt they'll go with that line-up for 5 years, that'd be longer than Platinum Era and well, you see where that went.
If that ANGERME leak is true, then I'm sure one member will leave.
I think it's interesting to see the age differences between the groups. Or maybe "age" is the wrong word for it, more like "generations" in a bigger picture.
Momoko and °C-ute are the "old" generation.
The next one would be ANGERME 1st gen - yes, I see them as a generation on their own.
Then you have the big break with MM 9th and 10th gen, as well as ANGERME 2nd gen.
In addition to that, 2012/2013 MM 11th gen and Juice=Juice (I think it's ok to put these two together since Uemuu and Tomoko just joined the Kenshuusei in 2012 as well).
The newest generation (late 2014/2015): ANGERME 3rd gen, Country Girls, MM 12th gen, the Factories.
In terms of leaving, the first two generations started graduating already (I'd put Berryz and probably Sayumi and Reina under that 1st gen; from the 2nd gen 2 girls are gone and another one will leave soon). Of course, graduations don't have do go gradually, since Yuuka and Saki left before Berryz, Sayu and Reina. It's possible that someone from my 3rd gen leaves next.
Now that was just some pointless brainstorming lol, better put that under a spoiler.
But I liked the previous posts here in this thread so I'm trying to use that pattern for my own predictions.
Morning Musume: No changes 2015, no new audition announcements, no graduation announcements. 59th single will sell about as well as the 58th, 60th will sell a bit better but not as good as Wagamama/AnG. They're going to push Maria and Oharu, Miki and Akane will be in the back. They will try to loosen the center a bit, like with the 58th single (IKK with Sakura as center, Seishun Kozou Ayumi, Yuugure Mizuki and Masaki) - but Riho will keep getting good and important parts of the songs, keeping her position as the ace clear. Haruka and Erina will get more attention. in 2016 Haruna will announce her graduation and will either graduate fall 2016 or spring 2017. She will stay under UF* and work as a radio talento with occasional jobs in the gaming world (I'm still not over that presentation where she got to play Hyrule Warriors lol). During the winter concert 2017 new auditions are announced. In fall another girl announces her graduation, I think it will be a 9th gen member. New members are introduced on the first day of fall 2017 concerts. 13th gen will be less than 4 members. Another person announces her graduation, which means 2018 we will have graduations during both the spring and fall concert tours. I stay with the thought that both graduations will be 9th gen members, probably Mizuki and Erina, but I wouldn't be surprised if even Riho graduates this soon (she had some exhausting years). Of course, Zukki isn't out either.
This would mean:
2016/17 graduation
2017 new generation
2018 two graduations
In these 3 years we will lose 3 members, but gain 1-3 (or more) new ones.
°C-ute: Their fanbase will grow. As they mentioned, they won't stop until their dreams came true. I think they will stay under H!P for at least 2-3 more years, after that they might disband, but I think they will just move to UF*. Their "graduation" concert will be at Saitama Super Arena, but not with full capacity (not full 37,000).
ANGERME: They might announce the audition during the summer concerts 2015. Kanon graduates in November, the new members are introduced during the winter concert 2016. They will probably get 3 new members again, making them an 11-members group. The next single (jumping a bit back again, I'm talking about the one with Sally) won't sell as much as Taiki Bansei but close to it. The single after that will be the same, maybe a bit more because of Kanon's graduation. Kanon will get a solo song. Now, in 2016, they will keep on selling around this much. In late 2016 Dawa announces her graduation, she graduates in 2017 at Yokohama Arena. Her graduationg single will break Taiki Bansei's record. After that, they will drop in sales (but not to their worst sale level). 2018 a 2nd gen member will graduate.
Juice=Juice: The album sells like the usual H!P album sells, but is generally seen as a good one (like S/mileage's 2nd one). The next singles will stay at around the 40.000 mark; the group will follow a style that's a bit different from the rest of H!P (some people will call it retro-H!P or Melon Kinenbi/Taiyou to Ciscomoon-like). Their concert tour will be a success, but they won't get to Budokan soon after that again. The group will become more popular among middle school girls.
Country Girls: The next single won't sell as well or as long as Itooshikutte, but the group will get around well without Uta. They will surpass Itooshikutte's sales with Momoko's last single. After that there will be a drop. Chisaki will be the new face. A version of Itooshikutte and Koi Dorobou without Momoko will be released as an extra on their first album.
Kobushi Factory: Their first single will sell around 30.000 thanks to the drama tie-in. They won't sell much more than that for some time. The members will stay the same.
Tsubaki Factory: Because many of the members aren't as experienced as the Kobushi members, they won't have a major debut this year. In general, the group will be a bit in the background until °C-ute graduates.
I think it's quite possible that we might get new members in Morning Musume without anyone graduating. Then of course we would end up with the Sakura Gumi and Otome Gumi type lineups and major headaches and confusion as the lineups from each team gets shuffled around when some of the members do eventually graduate without anyone joining the same year.
That all being said, fans will still support them greatly as there is always something about Morning Musume that brings you back to them when things get confusing
I would join in this because i got nothing better to do .. But of course my guess is too good to be true and very predictable which H!P usually ain't ..
*note- when I state a gen means member(S) of the gen 2015 - ANGERME 4th + ANGERME 1st gen Graduation(not a prediction, we know already - Maro) 2016 - ANGERME 5th + ANGERME 1st gen Graduation 2017 - C-ute Hiatus + MM 13th gen + 9th or 10th gen Graduation + Note-(H!P 20th anniversary) 2018 - ANGERME 6th + ANGERME 2nd gen Graduation 2019 - Peace before the storm.. 2020 - ANGERME (7th) and MM (14th) joint auction + ANGERME 2nd or/and 3rd gen Graduation + 9th or/and 10th gen Graduation + Note-(Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games)
Morning Musume: Haruna announces her graduation in late 2015/early 2016, and graduates during the 2016 Fall Tour. Ayumi becomes sub-leader #2, or the position is left empty. In 2017, a 9ki girl announces her graduation (Most likely RihoRiho or Zukki) and graduates in 2018 Spring. Sales remain steady, 60th single doing a little better than usual. In 2017, 13ki is announced, 3-4 girls in the gen. Colorful Era begins to come to an end.
C-ute: Remain popular and do well, and then announce Berryz-like disbandment during 2017-2018ish. They all go on their separate paths similar to Berryz.
ANGERME: Kanon gets a solo song that goes on ANGERME's third album, released November 2015. Ayacho graduation in 2016 with really strong Triple A Side Single (Like Sayu's single, group song, solo song, thank-you-leader song) 4ki joins a little after. In 2018, Rina or Meimi graduates.
J=J: Album sells well, but nothing out of the ordinary. 220 Show Concert Tours leads to Nippon Budokan but then no more Budokan concerts until 2018-2019. Singles sell well but attract more middle school/high school girls than hardcore wota. Sometime in between this somebody graduates or leaves.
Country Girls: They'll get around without Uta, with Mai or Chisaki becoming more popular/centered. Momoko graduates in late 2018. Her graduation single becomes their highest selling, for she is the last remaining member of the HP Kids at this time. After that, small drop in popularity, but CG gets themselves together with Risa as leader and become steady again.
The Factories: With both C-ute and Berryz gone at the time when both groups have debuted and become regular groups in hello project (around 2019), UF tries to make the factories similar to the Berrikyyu that once was with a few occasional collabs. KF and TF both have good singles, but KF is a little more popular because Hama-chan and Rei. Member Line-ups stay very similar with only one departure from each group, if they don't stay the same at all.
Other: 2016 or 2017. Aika either finally releases something or leaves Hello!Project all together and stays on the Up-Front label. A new soloist is announced and revealed, and is from either KSS or an audition if Aika leaves.
hmm ... I suddenly got the idea of C-ute not going the Berryz way .. They could hold an audition or they may just pick them from KSS .. I see a C-ute 2nd gen as quite possible ..
My reasoning of course is rather unsubstantial, that's why I put it here There are only 3 group left that ever won the newcomer award .. we know MM and ANGERME has multiple gens but why not C-ute.. Furthermore the C-ute brand name is even more valuable as they actually got an additional nomination for the main award the next year ..
C-ute group size ain't as big as Berryz and their do have a age gap of 4years between Maimi and Maimai .. So there really no need to remove them all as once..
There are plenty of good KSS around who has the talent and ability .. They can loose them or they can open up new groups and start from scratch .. Or they can carry on a well-known group which already is very popular, with a huge amount of songs .. So there is no reason to close them and start another later ..
Lastly .. usually just when you got them figured out .. they surprise you .. Basically C-ute is more successful than Berryz and they may bleed many fan away if they just close them .. Furthermore .. I think fans would be happy knowing that C-ute would not close and should not drop them because of a 2nd gen ..
I think it's quite possible that we might get new members in Morning Musume without anyone graduating. Then of course we would end up with the Sakura Gumi and Otome Gumi type lineups and major headaches and confusion as the lineups from each team gets shuffled around when some of the members do eventually graduate without anyone joining the same year.
That all being said, fans will still support them greatly as there is always something about Morning Musume that brings you back to them when things get confusing
I feel like if MM added new members to the current line-up the barrage of "H!P is copying AKB" comments would be overwhelming lol
I've learned to like graduations (timely ones... that is), like if any 9ki girl were to graduate I would genuinely be happy for them, I think they can become much more than the group can offer. I especially feel that way about Meimi within H!P.
C-ute: Their popularity increases slowly. They start promoting themselves as an Artist group (like AAA or Flower, or a kpop girl group) instead of as Idols. I don't expect any members to graduate, and if they do the whole group graduates together a la Berryz. Their music and performance skills rise and they get into Kouhaku before current Morning musume lol. If they were to graduate, i'd say they would announce it early 2018 and graduate at the end of the year.
Morning Musume: I can see them pushing a 12th gen member now (Maria) as a front girl along side Riho, Sakura and Duu. Zukki gets more solo lines and their sales increase slowly but at a steady rate. 2016 will be the year management finally lets them go on music shows and break out more into the industry. Either Eripon or Haruna will announce graduation during 2016, and Riho will become sub-leader, then auditions for a 13th gen will be announced. From this point (2017) on I can see the group rising in popularity again up to over 250k sales.
ANGERME: Of course Kanon will graduate this year, then I can see the group staying in the same formation until the 4ki join in 2016. A few months later Dawa announces graduation. The group continue to release solid singles and their sales increase passed the 100k mark at least by the end of 2016.
Juice=Juice: I don't expect anything to change. I think they'll experience a drop in popularity after the little hurrah they had with their number one single this year. In 2016 they "start over" with an amazing song and a new gimmick along the lines of C-ute's idol days, which will get them popular again. I can see one of the members graduating in 2017 and the group continuing on as a 4 member group.
Country Girls: Their popularity will rise rapidly throughout the rest of this year even without Uta. In 2016 momochi will announce that she will leave the group at the end of 2016 and that there will be auditions for new member (not based on generation like angerme and morning musume, just new members lol). Risa becomes leader and three new girls are added during 2017 leaving the group at 7 members and they break 100k sales during that single.
Kobushi Factory and Tsubaki Factory: I see them being more "together" than cute and berrys were. Kobushi will debut before Tsubaki and rise higher than them, but they will become like twin groups. No changes to any groups during 2015 and 16. They announce that they will have a concept of having one single together each year during the summer, in which fans can choose who they want to be center each year. By 2017 Kobushi hits 80k sales and Tsubaki hits 95k sales.
Ooh, it's been a while since the last reply to this thread but let's have some fun :v
• Tsubaki Factory catches up with Kobushi sometime in 2019/20
• Kobushi Factory's popularity won't increase significantly until some time has passed. Maybe 2021-ish
• Maimi, Mai and Saki won't remain active in the entertainment industry after their graduation (sorry if they have already announced what are their future plans, I just don't follow these girls and I can't see them doing anything in the showbiz unless they say so).
• Momoko will re-appear in the public eye/maybe in the entertainment industry even for just a brief moment sometime in 2020
• There won't be a °C-ute succesor group
• Yurina's modeling career will get even better in two years or so
• PINK CRES. becomes more active this 2017 and they gain some decent popularity
• Ayaka Wada graduates in 2018/19
• Yamaki Risa graduates when she's 23/24
• Juice=Juice ends up adding more members one day after Yuka graduates
• Sakurako becomes a full front girl sometime in 2019/2020
Sooo, these are my "predictions" lol, I actually wish some of these come true (the PINK CRES., Tsubaki, Yurina, Sakurako and Momo ones) while the others are more of wild speculations just to see what happens
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＾The last one didn't come true, huh? (Yeah, 2017 is just starting but to have those sales they should have sold 60k+ once by now and that didn't happen). The one regarding Momoko's graduation was close but it missed by some months. Their popularity? Didn't raise. Also the sales aren't happening anytime soon. The new girls? Who knows... Also who knows if Risa will be proclaimed leader once Momoko graduates.
