84 replies to this topic

[Ares13]

This is even less than Kokoro no Placard by more than 10K..
I remember when we were tracking Kokoro no Placard ..it was nail biting to the end before they got just 5K pass the million mark..
As I have said.. I feel that all the fans are gearing towards senbatsu election.. this single come too late and close to the senbatsu election single which is usually in May..
I feel that the fans would rather choose to push their idol for senbatsu election than to help upkeep AKB48 sales record.. Furthermore.. some may not be AKB48's fans but the sister group's fan..
I seriously think this time they would miss the million mark ..
That is unless it is a case of late delivery for day 1 and there are still a huge number of sales not taken in yet.. if not.. I would think this one would miss a million but the next one could reach 2 million..

[JennyInTokyo]

You could be right but it seems like right now AKB48 is on a slight decline. I'll be looking forward to the senbatsu and it's single to see how things turn out sales wise.

[Ares13]

Here's a comparison, Gurifura or Green Flash to the far right: 

 
As you can see, there's a big drop. It compares best with Kokoro no Placard, and if it has same consistent sales as it had, then the 1M record will remain, but if not... then no I doubt it.

Day 1 - #1 860,269
Day 2 - #1 41,490
total so far - 901,759

Comparing with Kokoro no Placard as it barely got to 1 million ..
41,490 is still behind 57,799 ..
So they miss 11K on day 1 and 16K on day 2 ..
So this single is behind Kokoro no Placard by around 27K already ..
don't look like it is going to reach 1 million this time ..

[minaeshi]

AKB would need to sell at least 139,704 copies in the next few days if they want to keep the 1mil 1st week streak 

[Krusha]

I see math is not your strong point... As they've already sold 901,759 copies, they need to sell 98,241 copies to reach 1M. But for 1st week I think that's impossible. For total, it's likely, but hard.

[dev-null]

Over-saturation of the market certainly kicks in (there are simply too much idol releases in general)... and the thrill for fans to help them to reach the million too, I guess. It was rather exciting the first few times it happened. But when it became the norm it gets boring, I guess. Additionally a decline in quality when it comes to the songs. A reduced release cycle could help in this regard, but from a business point of view perhaps selling 4 times a bit less than a million is still better than selling 3 times a bit over a million.

Nonetheless the numbers are still dominant compared to all other artists, I guess.



Dunno, if I make sense... 3:43 AM here and I need some sleep desperately.

[tomi]

3rd day sales 16,869

　　　  KFC　　　　　Ereki　　　　　Suzuka　　　Maeshika　　Dog song　　  KLP　　　  Refrain　　Green Flash
　  13/08/21　　13/10/30　 13/12/11　　14/02/26  14/05/21　 14/08/27 　14/11/26　　15/03/04
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
火　1,095,894　1,020,800　*,916,912　*,970,413　1,462,156　*,871,923　1,017,160　*,860,269
水　*,*81,300　*,*53,379　*,*38,574　*,*44,403　*,*61,451　*,*57,799　*,*37,812　*,*41,490
木　*,*42,957　*,*62,134　*,*17,531　*,*19,890　*,*37,612　*,*19,396　*,*20,473　*,*16,869
金　*,*32,651　*,*17,824　*,*21,522　*,*16,121　*,*33,141　*,*14,792　*,*14,839　*,***,***
土　*,*26,774　*,*17,050　*,*13,666　*,*13,732　*,*26,286　*,*13,368　*,*13,362　*,***,***
日　*,*27,905　*,*14,686　*,*12,887　*,*12,092　*,*27,666　*,*15,420　*,*15,110　*,***,***
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
計　1,307,481　1,185,873　1,021,092　1,076,651　1,648,312　*,992,698　1,118,756　*,918,628
週　1,330,432　1,203,586　1,033,336　1,091,406　1,662,265　1,005,774　1,130,312　*,***,***
累　1,549,343　1,294,197　1,086,491　1,153,906　1,787,367　1,061,760　1,195,973　*,***,***

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

^I was just coming to post that. This single is in danger of being the one that ends the million in a week streak. 3 days and still not over 920k solidly. I hope this teaches Aki-p and co that the sister groups songs for b-sides format doesn't work. It hardly helped with Eien Pressure and it hardly helped with Suzukake Nanchara why did they think it was a good idea to use it a third time? Ugh. And to think if they had songs on it for team A, K, B and 4 they might just have avoided this crisis. Even if the songs were just average.

[Ares13]

They need 81,372 for the remaining 3 days + final consolidation count ..
which is not impossible because I did a 3 day + final consolidation row (X) of the past singles

KFC and Dog song got 87K so it is still possible .. but if course the rest of the figures show they average around 40K+ though
 

3rd day sales 16,869

　　　  KFC　　　　　Ereki　　　　　Suzuka　　　Maeshika　　Dog song　　  KLP　　　  Refrain　　Green Flash
　  13/08/21　　13/10/30　 13/12/11　　14/02/26  14/05/21　 14/08/27 　14/11/26　　15/03/04
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
火　1,095,894　1,020,800　*,916,912　*,970,413　1,462,156　*,871,923　1,017,160　*,860,269
水　*,*81,300　*,*53,379　*,*38,574　*,*44,403　*,*61,451　*,*57,799　*,*37,812　*,*41,490
木　*,*42,957　*,*62,134　*,*17,531　*,*19,890　*,*37,612　*,*19,396　*,*20,473　*,*16,869
金　*,*32,651　*,*17,824　*,*21,522　*,*16,121　*,*33,141　*,*14,792　*,*14,839　*,***,***
土　*,*26,774　*,*17,050　*,*13,666　*,*13,732　*,*26,286　*,*13,368　*,*13,362　*,***,***
日　*,*27,905　*,*14,686　*,*12,887　*,*12,092　*,*27,666　*,*15,420　*,*15,110　*,***,***
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
計　1,307,481　1,185,873　1,021,092　1,076,651　1,648,312　*,992,698　1,118,756　*,918,628
週　1,330,432　1,203,586　1,033,336　1,091,406　1,662,265　1,005,774　1,130,312　*,***,***
累　1,549,343　1,294,197　1,086,491　1,153,906　1,787,367　1,061,760　1,195,973　*,***,***

(X)   87,330    49,560    48,075     41,945    87,093    43,580    43,311		

[Krusha]

It's not impossible. But look at just the last two singles and their three final days.

 

Kokoro no Placard had a total of 43,580 for its last 3 days.

Kibouteki Refrain had 43,311. 

 

Consolidation count for Kokoro no Placard: 13,076, and consolidation count for Kibouteki Refrain: 11,556.

 

In short: The total sales of of the three final days in the first week for both singles is pretty much the same, whereas the total actually is slightly higher for KR which came after KnP. However, consolidation count is lower for KR, as opposed to KnP.

 

Considering that Green Flash has a lower current three days total compared with KnP which had lower first three day total compared with KR, it means that not only does Green Flash need a higher three day final count of the week, but also a higher consolidation count.

 

And then when you consider an overall slow decline per release (more or less), this makes it close to impossible in my eyes. Not exactly and entirely impossible, but close to.

 

In short, if we estimate a final consolidation count of 40,000 for this single (it could go lower...), they need to sell no less than 13.8k per day for for the remaining three days (make it 14k). Otherwise no go.

[Ares13]

oops .. sorry my bad .. I said (X) is 3 day + final consolidation but it is actually only last 3 days ..
totally ashamed of myself as I does accounts so if I made this kind of beginner mistake at work .. I would get into big trouble >.<..
let me do a proper one ..
(X)= the final consolidation count
(Y)= Last 3 days total
(Z)= Last 3 days total + the final consolidation count

3rd day sales 16,869

　　　  KFC　　　　　Ereki　　　　　Suzuka　　　Maeshika　　Dog song　　  KLP　　　  Refrain　　Green Flash
　  13/08/21　　13/10/30　 13/12/11　　14/02/26  14/05/21　 14/08/27 　14/11/26　　15/03/04
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
火　1,095,894　1,020,800　*,916,912　*,970,413　1,462,156　*,871,923　1,017,160　*,860,269
水　*,*81,300　*,*53,379　*,*38,574　*,*44,403　*,*61,451　*,*57,799　*,*37,812　*,*41,490
木　*,*42,957　*,*62,134　*,*17,531　*,*19,890　*,*37,612　*,*19,396　*,*20,473　*,*16,869
金　*,*32,651　*,*17,824　*,*21,522　*,*16,121　*,*33,141　*,*14,792　*,*14,839　*,***,***
土　*,*26,774　*,*17,050　*,*13,666　*,*13,732　*,*26,286　*,*13,368　*,*13,362　*,***,***
日　*,*27,905　*,*14,686　*,*12,887　*,*12,092　*,*27,666　*,*15,420　*,*15,110　*,***,***
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
計　1,307,481　1,185,873　1,021,092　1,076,651　1,648,312　*,992,698　1,118,756　*,918,628
週　1,330,432　1,203,586　1,033,336　1,091,406　1,662,265　1,005,774　1,130,312　*,***,***
累　1,549,343　1,294,197　1,086,491　1,153,906　1,787,367　1,061,760　1,195,973　*,***,***

(X)   22,951	17,713	  12,244     14,755    13,953	 13,076	   11,556
(Y)   87,330    49,560    48,075     41,945    87,093    43,580    43,311	
(Z)  110,281	67,273	  60,319     56,700   101,046	 56,656	   54,867	

[Krusha]

KFC and Labrador Retriever are the only two songs on the list that got more than 81k. Every other song got less than 81k.  Removing KFC and Labrador Retriever from the list, we get 67.2k -> 60.3k -> 56.7k -> 56.6k -> 54.8k, showing a clear trend of decline, and since this single needs 81k, I think it's pretty obvious this will be difficult

[minaeshi]

I see math is not your strong point... As they've already sold 901,759 copies, they need to sell 98,241 copies to reach 1M. But for 1st week I think that's impossible. For total, it's likely, but hard.

 

Pretty rude thing to say considering the fact that I used only the first day sales (which were the only sales to be announced when I made the comment, day 2 wasn't even out yet) to make that analysis.   

[Nao-kun]

Day 4 and things look a bit better, 50240 sold, bringing the total to 968868.

[Mikaeri Bijin]

I like "Green Flash" much more than "Kibouteki Refrain" so I'm sad the sales are not good :-/

[Krusha]

minaeshi, 

Day 2 sales were out. And Ares13 posted them right above your post. Including the then total... (and even if you used 1st day sales only, the total with what you suggested would be 999,973, and not 1,000,000...)

 

Anyways, with the surprising 4th day sales, they need 31,132 for 1M, which means they should have above 15,566 for both remaining days. The consolidation count is also a factor, and if it follows the trend of previous consolidation figures, this should work...

 

Sales figures aside, what did you all think about SKE48's PV on the single? I want to see more of that stuff in releases. Not necessarily same theme, but a PV which is engaging like that. 

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

Hm, 50k is great and all, but it sounds like the result of whatever makes NMB have those random spikes several weeks into their singles chart runs recently. Handshake resale rounds or something. I'm thinking this single is in for a close call regardless of this 50k figure for the 4th day.

[Krusha]

Today with 12,943 and #2. Total of 981,811 so far. They need 18,189 to reach 1M (needs to happen with remaining one-day sales + consolidation figures).

[SayumiForever]

Judging by the sales, it looks impossible to get 1 million within 1 day

[Ares13]

Today with 12,943 and #2. Total of 981,811 so far. They need 18,189 to reach 1M (needs to happen with remaining one-day sales + consolidation figures).

Lol.. with the amazing 50K for day 4 ..
It almost certain they should get 1 million..
Looking at past recent sales.. they never got less than 10K for daily sales on week 1
And they never got less than 10K for consolidated figures..
So pretty much they would get 20K at worst..
And they only need 18,189 .. so that's pretty much going to be 1 million..