52 replies to this topic

[pink-ku]

(from Satchan)

Janken Tournament finally announced for September 17th.
http://news.nmb48.co...806/103010.html

It sounds like the preliminary rounds will all take place on August 8th (Friday) at the AKB theater.

As per recent years, all concurrent AKB members will get an automatic pass.

Also as per recent years, each sister group KKS will have their own winner and that winner will get a pass into the sister group preliminaries.

There will be:
8 SKE48 members
7 NMB48 members (NMB48 will pass through 2 KKS)
5 HKT48 members
3 AKB48 Team 8 members
1 AKB48 KKS member (are there any?)

>
Winner will have solo song, and the rest of the top 16 (2-16) will have the B-side.

Here is the bracket placement:

http://jigsaw-puzzle...first-round-why

>
names are in Japanese, perhaps someone could Romanized them (thanks).

(redone as separate thread)

[Aeria]

Hm, this is the first time they have a solo song as an A-side, correct?

 

Also, Ino Miyabi and Taniguchi Megu are the only KKS right now. They were tentative KKS for 15th Generation, but are full KKS now.

[satchan]

Can this get moved to the general area given it's not an AKB specific event and I'm not even sure if this deciding an AKB48 single.

 

Sayaka vs. Takamina is an interesting matchup and I hope Sayaka and Kono Saki advance to face each other. Given the stark differences in popularity between the two, I think it'd be interesting seeing how Sayaka treats it assuming this whole thing isn't rigged to get her a solo single. Really hoping someone interesting (i.e. not a senbatsu/big future once in a generation idol we got ten of 'em oh my godddddd!!! member) wins, but the set up of this year's really seems to knock on the 2-16 girls who are playing for a freakin' b-side. No Marinchan, Emichi type stories.

[Ares13]

Actually.. it is a AKB48 specific event because the AKB48 members do not need qualifying..
It's pretty much is a event organised by AKB48 as main participant.. the only difference is the reward..
But it still an AKB48 event

[Gambit Owner]

reading from tokyohive

the winner will be releasing solo debut not solo song for their janken single

and if the winner already a soloist, management will be hold a solo concert for her

since this janken kinda rigged (they won't be dare to to let their consecutive 1milion sales would stop)

i'm rooting the winner probably mayuyu, kashiwagi or sayanee or maybe takahashi minami

[Ares13]

This also means that elite senbatsu member can hold on to their senbatsu run without being broken by the Janken single..
This in time will create new heroine.. like those who can break the record for most senbatsu in a row ..

[Krusha]

Easy overview image of the brackets for the upcoming tournament: 

http://i.imgur.com/lNwihtw.jpg

[Ares13]

LOL .. after years of looking at the tournament overview .. I still find it hard to adsorb the details ..
maybe they should so like a league .. LOL

[dev-null]

Can we get this moved to the general section?

 

 

Well... actually I wasn't very interested in this year's event.. especially after last years boring (and potentially rigged? ) result. But since Team N's err... Team BII's Haru and Team H.. errm.. Team KIII's Nao participate I'm rather exited now.  Only a bit sad they can't potentially meet in the finale already... only in the quarter final (if I got the brackets correctly.)

[Ares13]

You really don't see it as an AKB48 event when every AKB48 member is in it? .. awfully strange to me
but .. stuff like senbatsu election and request hour are at the general section .. so I guess is that it should be purely AKB48 ... but there is NO NAME ..
ok .. I am confused ...

 

Edit: . Oh.. it has to be a product at the end?  .

So this don't belong here but the solo single with the 15 runner-up coupling should be here? 

 

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btw.. just checking.. 

If the winner had solo debut then it will become a solo concert.. 

Then what will happen to the 15 runner up?  .. join concert as extras? 

anyway it don't make sense as their usual stage is 16 member.. there is nothing special about it..?

So what is the reward?  ..

Or they are still going to have the single but is no consider a solo debut..?? 

[dev-null]

You really don't see it as an AKB48 event when every AKB48 member is in it? .. awfully strange to me

It's a 48 group event when HKT48, NMB48 and SKE48 members participate. So the topic should go to the general 48 section. Like in the last years. The alternative would be to open Janken topics under the HKT48, NMB48 and SKE48 sections too where things related to the girls from those groups can be discussed.

[gryzze]

The winner will get a solo debut which means she will release her own single. That probably means that AKB will release a regular single and the coupling song for the rest of the girls will probably be on that one. So if the winner gets a solo concert the other girls will still get their song. I find it odd that it's a 15 member senbatsu though. Are they planning to add another girl?

I'm not really interested in this event anymore after last year when it became apparent it's rigged. Hopefully since this year's setup is less risky they won't rig it.

[satchan]

Sounds like it might be more risky this year. You can always fall back on handshake sales for a group single, so letting anyone win is not a big deal. Obviously it's a great opportunity for every girl who is involved if AKS is letting it play out by chance, but for AKS to basically put just anyone up front there? That seems like a big risk to me. If you're talking about giving it the kind of promotion you'd give a typical AKB single, that's a really big difference from Matsumura's 1000 copies solo single thing and the difference between Yamamoto Sayaka, who's had more solo songs with NMB than NMB songs she's been in and not been the center of and someone like Kono Saki who was never even in a music video until the Team N video for the brand new album could be into the hundreds of thousands of copies. That's a lot of unknown and potential profits lost to sing up for, even if it's released on You, Be Cool! and they're bracing for it.

 

I also don't really care if it's rigged or not, but I just find it so boring when girls who are already in center positions just so happen to win more center positions. Like oshi bias aside, what is there to be excited about when Jurina and Paruru win these? How can you honestly sit there and say, "Now that was an amazing result."? If those are going to be the winners, I'd prefer they only allow the top 16 elected members to compete so I can a. not waste time paying attention to it and b. at least know to expect something that's not that interesting.

 

And yeah, janken tournaments before have been in the general section. What's different about this year that it has to stay in the AKB section?

[Krusha]

For example, if Marikosama winning was legit, then it was just funny. I think most people thought it was kinda funny that she would manage to win it, and her first center ever. But when then Paruru won and thereafter Jurina? That's when most started groaning over what seems so obvious it's not only transparent, but self-illuminated and glowing...

Anyways, I still enjoy the matches as a whole. The atmosphere. The outfits of the girls. The "drama" (if you want to call it that), and so on. I always hope for interesting lineups, and that oshis and favorites do well, that's all. And that's the same for me this year, well and hoping that it'll be streamed so that we can actually watch it instead of interpreting smoke signals and morse code. I also hope for a worthy winner, in the sense that it's someone that can actually do something with a solo single. And honestly, if it's Sayanee or any of the top senbatsu girls it'll be disappointing. Not to rack on Sayanee, she's great and she would in fact deserve a solo single, but it's the boring obvious choice...

[gryzze]

In what way is it more risky? If the solo single fails it will be the failure of that single girl and not AKB. The AKB single would be like any other single with a senbatsu chosen by management.

How much they invest in that solo single would probably depend on who wins.

And yeah if Sayanee wins this time it would be so obvious and expected that it would probably kill the tournament for good. Last year I saw a japanese online survery answered by thousands of people and I think more than 70% thought it was rigged.

[Ares13]

Ya.. there is no risk..
Think team surprise..
It's not counted as AKB48 even though It's actually the same senbatsu at times..
They probably have a sponsor for the production of the single
So what risk are there?

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About janken.. I used to not think that its rigged
But if you look at everything as a whole.
AKB48 operate with 16senbatsu.. but there are about only around 12 member that is the 100% selection..
And for the last 3 .. a member from this elite batch has won..
Honestly.. what is the chance of that? ..
Furthermore.. Kojiharu should have won the 1st one..
It's their first time and they may have screwed up the rigging..
But the first one could be legit as it show that It's very improbable that a top 12 will win.
But you got to consider that from the 2nd one onwards..
They have big sponsor and do they really want to risk a low member win? and screw the sponsor?
Can they really tell their big bucks sponsor that they spend big money and they got a NMB48 KKS representing their product since she won?

It does not take a genius to tell that their popularity is going down.. but their sales maintaining at past 1 million is the only thing that reject this idea.. I don't think they want to risk it anymore..
Even gething an elite member to center the single is not really going to work..
If you look around.. you can see that AKB48 is no longer doing the vegetable drink campaign.. that belong to another group now.. they may lose their coffee one too..
Now they are making exception and tweaking the group just to fulfil the requirement of their clients

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@gryzze- Thanks for answering my question..: )

[satchan]

There's no risk in returns? I disagree. If you can make 100 million yen doing one thing but allow chance to take over and only make you 5 million yen, that seems kind of risky to me for a business in the business of making money.

[Ares13]

^… sorry don't quite get what you mean.. 

But I am guessing.. that you think they give up 100million yen? 

but actually..  what if it's a lose of 10million yen and they trade off with a gain of 5million ..

Now this is brilliant business..  

 

You got to face it..  they have to dig very deep every year just to up hold the janken single.. 

They maybe making lose and this change may just turn it to a gain gain situation for them.. 

 

So not only there is non risk..  they can sit back and relax.. 

[satchan]

If they were going to lose money on janken, why would they even hold it? If we assume they don't make a profit at the event itself (which I would imagine they absolutely do) let's say Yamamoto Sayaka wins and the single sells 135,000 copies its first week and Morikawa Ayaka wins and the single sells 4,800 total, there's no risk involved financially in regards to recouping the cost of janken? Or are we just assuming they're going to outkick their coverage on Sayaka promotions and take a loss on not only janken but this single while they'd earn money from Morikawa because they wouldn't spend any money on promotion at all?

[Ares13]

^ ..that's easy.. it's call investment..
They started hoping that it would pay but after suffering for so many years..
They finally decide to cut their lost and cut the reward to just a related single..
This would minimize the importance of it and they can cut it off later..
Obviously they can't just suddenly stop..

The event itself don't lose any money.. people pay good money for a concert but instead get scissor paper stone..
You do know that fans watching the Janken need to pay money for a ticket right?
All the cost of the event can be easily covered by ticketing and sponsors given their popularity ..
it's the releasing a official single that can hurt them.. since they cannot afford less than a million sales on first week..
They got to try harder and spend more on promotion..

Furthermore they can change the standard of the solo single depending on the winner..
If an elite win.. they will do a better one and make the money.. but a noob win.. they can just release some cheap stuff and breakeven easy..

But if they release an AKB48 single like they use to.. there is only 1 standard..

Similarly.. if an elite who had solo debut won.. it would be thousand seater show and make the money..
If a rare noob who had solo debut won then a hundred seater to breakeven..
Man.. if they really want to save money.. they can even have the concert at the theater..