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38th Single Speculations, Hopes, Non-hopes, & Etc


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#61 Ares13

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Posted 04 September 2014 - 03:12 PM

LOL .. Yamada Nana ..
Am I getting this right?
We are talking about the Yamada Nana who is Captain of Team M and Senbatsu of both SKE48 and NMB48?
How many double senbatsu in 48G can you name? .. and how many double senbatsu can you name who is also a captain?

If this is the "Next" card .. I would love to have all of my oshimens getting it ..

So the only way to show that they are pushing her is to put her into AKB48 senbatsu and she be a triple senbatsu ..?
think about it .. who in 48G done that ..? triple senbatsu .. triple senbatsu and a captain ..

Honestly .. have anyone even thought about it ?
If she got into AKB48 senbatsu .. it would make her the most favored member ever in the history of idol ..
So I don't get the part about them not pushing her ..

btw .. triple senbatsu .. I can only think about Miyuki .. but she didn't get into senbatsu for this election .. so she still need to get into 38th ..
Technically.. She is the most favored member ever in the history of idol.. bet you didn't notice .. :P
oh well .. now that you notice .. bet you going hate her even more? .. >.<
Please do not hate Watanabe Miyuki ... :)

#62 TRiNuVie

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Posted 04 September 2014 - 08:58 PM

I dislike Milky with passion, so I hope she never comes back to AKB. ^^

 

Nagisa is welcome any time, though. ;D



#63 rafyeung

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Posted 04 September 2014 - 11:48 PM

Annin has recovered, it's just that Ota pro has her doing movies that management does not want to put too much stain on her health. As for Rena not in senbutsu that's just crazy talk, no way management will do that. Like everybody, I really hope for a cool song & wicked dance choreo., but looking at the past 18 months; I am not holding my breath.



#64 AragonDx

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 12:25 AM

I dislike Milky with passion, so I hope she never comes back to AKB. ^^

 

That's what the anti would say ^^;

I don't really dislike her, though.

I also think that her chance in senbatsu is still high (but maybe not this year :) )


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#65 Ares13

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 02:48 AM

Lol..  

To me Miyuki is the most perfect representation of a normal Japanese girl should be.. 

 

There is only 3 types for her.. 

The first type is of course her oshimen.. 

Then if you are not her oshimen.. there is only 2 other type.. 

You can either hate her or you are her secret admirer.. 

 

She is not my oshimen..  so I have been secretly in love with her.   

 

But she would always find it hard when it come to fan choice.. because she got more secret adminers than oshimen... 

We don't want to support her.  We want to start a family with her..   :P

The problem is she is very nice and obliging.. which will always get her in trouble..  and anti will always say its her trick of fishing for her fans.. 

 

To put its another way .. i am really not into her as an idol .. but i am in love with her as a girl .. :D

 

So ..

You can hate Milky ..but please do not hate Miyuki



#66 AragonDx

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 07:26 AM

There is only 3 types for her.. 

The first type is of course her oshimen.. 

Then if you are not her oshimen.. there is only 2 other type.. 

You can either hate her or you are her secret admirer.. 

 

What about the "don't care about her" type, Ares13? :rolleyes:


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#67 Ares13

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 12:27 PM

^ ... OMG .. :o ..
I didn't thought if that ...

LOL .. anyway ...
we may consider SKE48 Kanon as triple senbatsu .. she senbatsu on AKB48 Labrador .. recent SKE48 single and the coming HKT48 single .. LOL
I hate her !!! .. :P

she non non non .. but she get get get .. XD
Not bad for someone who only rank 50 for this year senbatsu election .. :P

#68 TRiNuVie

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 07:48 PM

Well, I said "dislike", not "hate" lol

 

Dunno, I just get a weird feeling with her. Like she kinda laughs at the fans internally or something.

Reminds me a bit of Ishikawa Rika in that sense lol



#69 minaeshi

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Posted 05 September 2014 - 10:55 PM

LOL .. Yamada Nana ..
Am I getting this right?
We are talking about the Yamada Nana who is Captain of Team M and Senbatsu of both SKE48 and NMB48?
How many double senbatsu in 48G can you name? .. and how many double senbatsu can you name who is also a captain?

If this is the "Next" card .. I would love to have all of my oshimens getting it ..

So the only way to show that they are pushing her is to put her into AKB48 senbatsu and she be a triple senbatsu ..?
think about it .. who in 48G done that ..? triple senbatsu .. triple senbatsu and a captain ..

 

You just explained why she is on the "next" list. 

 

Like I said before. Nana is the oldest member of NMB (except Umechan and Yukirin). She's a 3rd popular member and she has the kennin in SKE.

She has done all she can for NMB and at her age she will be thinking about Graduation of course, but right now she's still here. Yoshimoto want new girls in senbatsu, but they're not going to let her fade into the back of the group because she is still popular, so they'll give her what she deserves while waiting for her to graduate.

 

It's like Mariko, she was at the top of her game like Nana, a staple member, popular, and worthy of captaincy, so they gave it to her despite knowing that the chances of her graduation soon was likely. They gave it to her simply because she deserved it. They could have kept Kojiharu in A and gave the captain mark to her, but no, they gave it to Mariko. Nana is at that stage right now. 

 

She's got her captain role, and as she helps Team M get stronger and NMB get more known while helping SKE, management will do as they usually do and give her what she needs until she graduates. She's on the "next" list for AKB because she's got enough on her shoulders already. AKB want to push fresh young faces that can be staple members to their group, and as for sister groups, they want girls who can be popular enough to be in senbatsu.

 

Sayanee is already in AKB senbatsu. NEXT.

Milky can go back in there already, but its unlikely because she is with SKE too. NEXT.

Nana has captaincy. also has SKE. NEXT

The 4th most popular member is Fuuko, then Shu. and while they're not as popular as the senbatsu members, they're the "next in line" in terms of popularity. 

Or they could go for Nagisa because she has a kennin with AKB, but she's not as popular as Fuuko or Shu, so they would have to wait for her popularity to come.


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#70 Ares13

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 06:49 AM

^ .. hmm ..
you do know that the management can't do anything about them being old ..
actually can anyone do anything about age? can anyone make them younger ?

In SKE48, there is Sato Mieko, she is 28years old now ..
For years, she has always been on the top of the suspected graduation list ..
Fact is she is as old as Nana now when she join SKE48 .. people expect her to quit the day she join ..
but she is one of the 5 surviving first gen out of 23 girls ..

Even you yourself are expecting Nana to graduate just because she is old ..
don't kid yourself .. you don't know what she thinks ..there is no mind reader in this world ..
But don't worry .. you are not alone .. most fans think older member have a higher chance of graduation which is logical
But with this mindset .. Do you think they can get new fans?
It is not only the management fault but also the fans fault that older member tend to fade because the fans themselves think they would not last ..

Lastly 2 big fundamental error on your part ..

Nana is not exactly the no.3 ..
If you think Nana is the no.3 in NMB48 then who is the no.3 in SKE48?
If you think Churi ..that's totally wrong .. it is Kumi ..

Fact is NMB48 follow about the same promotion structure as SKE48..
when there are only 1st gen .. Nana is the no.3 ..
but when the 2nd gen turn up .. the no.3 spot will slowly move to one of the 2nd gen ..
Churi did well to hold it in SKE48 but Jo screw it up and graduated .. then the no.3 move to the next 2nd gen which is Fuuko ..
then a 3rd gen would get the no.4 .. then a 4th gen will get no.5 .. and so on and so forth
That is a simple but effective structure ...

but the problem is ..with every new gen.. a new member would push an existing member out of their place ..which would cause unhappiness within the fans ..
which is what you are feeling now ..
knowing this don't make you feel better but its is just to let you know ..

and the 2nd fundamental error is senbatsu is the biggest push they can get ..
I know after some time .. people take senbatsu for granted .. but its their biggest push ..
It an honor to be that 16 (or more now) out of so many girls .. who would get the spotlight on them ..
There is nothing more than senbatsu that the management can push them for ..

i know you want more .. for them to appear everywhere .. be at the center, appear in front of very performance, on every TV show, every magazine .. everything ..
but that's just idealistic but not feasible ..

So hope you get it right .. and not get too carried away with idealist principles ..

#71 TRiNuVie

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 03:31 PM

I don't see Fuuchan nor Shuu in AKB's senbatsu. :/

 

I think that if Milky is dropped, they might just take another new gen AKB girl and put her there. Plus, less backslash for so many sisters in AKB's senbatsu.

 

They have Tomu, they have Juri, they have Renacchi... plus, Yuria will probably get to be a staple senbatsu from now on to represent Team 4 along with Miichan.



#72 BerryzFan123

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 04:39 PM

Wait... has the senbatsu list been posted or is this just speculation? I'm getting really confused. :/

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#73 Ares13

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 04:41 PM

^ we are still speculating .. :)

^
^ i don't see Fuuchan and Shuu in AKB48 senbatsu too ..

but I don't see them drop Miyuki unless there is really some big shit that is going to happen ..
on a contrary .. they will move Miyuki higher .. because if they lower her now ... she will fall even further back as she was already miss senbatsu in election ..
the trick now is to lower Sayanee and lift Miyuki a bit .. they can never let 1 raise too far ahead in a A vs B .. because that will be putting all the eggs in one basket which can sink them ..
In an another saying .. its call maintaining the balance of the force .. ( XD .. I am sorry .. I had to do it .. :P )

For Yuria .. I really dunno .. it would be totally dumb that they move her over when she is doing so well in SKE48 just to be in UG now that will invite backlash .. but I doubt there is space left ..
Then there is also ikoma who I am pretty sure they will use her very well since the response on her is so great that she got into senbatsu election .. leaving her out would also invite backlash ..as a good number of people voted for her ..

with all honest truth .. we know AKB48 will not separate themselves from the sister groups .. it is more so now that they even got Nogizaka46 in the game ..
For years .. people keep trying to have a go about the fans not liking sisters group gathering up ..and for years .. they are wrong ..
the thing was AKB48 group was doing very well ... so they got no choice but to shut up .. AKB48 even created the AKB48 group brand name much to the annoyance of these separatist ..which obviously I had a good laugh ..
Now since sales are dropping .. this crap start again .. But they just keep failing to see the point ..

that senbatsu don't really affect sales ..
its been long believe that it does .. not its really not the case ..at least not anymore ..
well .. maybe if they do an extreme change it will but usually it does not ..

The Janken senbatsu usually get lower sales not totally because of the senbatsu ..
its just because its release too near to the single before it ..
the problem is .. the single before the Janken single usually have the request hour coupon and usually its a freaking good single ..

then you would wonder why Heart Ereki did better than Suzukake ..
Its because .. people who bought the Heart Ereki single did not know the request hour coupon is not in that single ..
furthermore .. Kojiharu center made a good story ..
By the time of Suzukake .. people are already out of cash and piss about the request hour coupon .. and furthermore .. its the most likely a rigged thing since the way Jurina wins it is questionable ..

But now we would not have the Janken single so I don't think the 39th will be in this year ..
So this 38th got to have everything .. from request hour coupon .. to some really quality content ..
They have the time for it .. so its not a rush job ..
The fans has the money for it .. and know this is the last one of the year .. it's going to sell no matter who is in the senbatsu ..

So going by what is happening in the sister group .. it should be more than 16 member senbatsu ..

it will depend how far they want to push the numbers ..but to the dismay of the separatist .. bigger numbers means more sister group members ..
ya but in proportion there will also be more AKB48 girls too ..

#74 TRiNuVie

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 05:43 PM

I doubt people bought Heart Ereki not knowing the TH coupon wasn't in there lol

 

Suzukake still sold better than Kokoro no Placard, and that was the single the fans voted for. It should be a success ala Flying Get and is now their worst selling single since Sakura no Ki ni narou.

 

Anyway, Milky can get the push from NMB if she gets to center a single there. She was supposed to be The Osaka Acchan at the beginning, but she screwed up in its early days and Sayanee just took over.

 

Dunno, maybe she and Rena will stay in AKB's senbatsu, but I think it would be a waste to fill those spaces with girls who are already on a hectic schedule with their kennin.

 

I still believe it will look like this:

 

A: Takamina, Kojiharu, Paruru, Ricchan, Sakura

K: Yui, Kojimako, Sayanee, Jurina

B: Mayuyu, Yukirin, Ikoma

4: Miichan, Yuria

H: Sasshi

 

With the 16th spot going to either Annin (if she's recovered), Juri or Renacchi. These last two have been getting a lot of promo for ranking for the first time straight into Undergirls, and we know how that helped Ricchan and Annin last year...



#75 Ares13

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 08:09 PM

^ .. actually .. really people really did not know .. because they had it for the last few years and so people did not check ..
and they only announce that the voting coupon is in the next single like around 2 week before the Heart Ereki release.. when people already preordered the theater single..
well its something in that line .. :P


LOL .. Miyuki is still on top .. there is not point in putting her center if a NMB48 single because .. she has always been in the center technically .. no one would feel anything ..
If its just solo center for Miyuki .. they would piss off Sayanee fans and instead in reverse psychology push Sayanee even further in front ..
Anyway .. Miyuki has always been the no.2 .. she is not suppose to overtake Sayanee .. if she ever overtake Sayanee.. its pretty much an accident like Rena overtaking Jurina, Yuko overtaking Acchan
I never said she is suppose to be no.1 in NMB48 .. she is suppose to be no.2 .. but just that the gap between them cannot not be so huge .. that the no.2 looked missing ..

LOL .. hope wise .. I of course hope for more newcomer to step into senbatsu .. but I know too well it is not going to happen .. :(

#76 rafyeung

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 09:21 PM

If you think Nana is the no.3 in NMB48 then who is the no.3 in SKE48?
If you think Churi ..that's totally wrong .. it is Kumi ..

Churi has never been the 3rd most popular gir in SKE, that's correct. SKE's no.3 is as follow; first Kumin, then Sawako, now De-Su.

But Churi is the 3rd most respected member by members & fans, only after the Matsui's.

 

As for Nana in the next AKB senbutsu, I really don't see that happen. Other than the usual suspects, AKB really need to push some new young stars.

The management cannot keep poaching sister groups, it is not healthy for the 48 group as a whole.

By the way Nana is only 22; unlike Neesan who is 28.



#77 minaeshi

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 10:12 PM

Ares13 You just love to put words into my mouth to try and prove your point don't you?  :c18:

dont get on my bad side lol  :c11:  

 

And sorry but no, Nana is the third (4th now Because of Yukirin taking 3rd position) popular in NMB. 

The ranking in NMB is Sayanee, Milky, Yukirin, Nana, Fuuko. 


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#78 Ares13

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Posted 06 September 2014 - 11:44 PM

If you think Nana is the no.3 in NMB48 then who is the no.3 in SKE48?
If you think Churi ..that's totally wrong .. it is Kumi ..

Churi has never been the 3rd most popular gir in SKE, that's correct. SKE's no.3 is as follow; first Kumin, then Sawako, now De-Su.
But Churi is the 3rd most respected member by members & fans, only after the Matsui's.
 
As for Nana in the next AKB senbutsu, I really don't see that happen. Other than the usual suspects, AKB really need to push some new young stars.
The management cannot keep poaching sister groups, it is not healthy for the 48 group as a whole.
By the way Nana is only 22; unlike Neesan who is 28.

Churi is no.3.. 
You know what?   
Nevermind...

What you expect me to say?
Can you tell me how in the world you measure respect among so many people..
Do you average it out and do a graph..?
I would like to know who is the 48th most respected member ever
I guess churi also respect herself 3rd in SKE48

please you come up with it or someone told you so ..about "respect" ..
If so have you ask the person how in the world did he/she come up with that ..
Its not like you say TKMN is the most respect member in 48G because it is obvious because her contribution and her reputation ..its widely accepted even if it may not be so with a respect measuring machine.. we can take it as so in theory ..
but if you go to the 2nd most respected .. you will be in trouble ..

Its like i say Paruru has the most Aura in 48G .. how in the world we measure that? Infrared signatures?

I think i got more people who don't get it than i can handle ..
You know.. I give up..
I should have just mind my own business..

Anyway.. I am not good at reasoning senbatsu in 48 ..
I still couldn't understand.. how can they drop someone...
When they gave her center for 2 songs and put her in senbatsu in 1 single and drop her the next single after she got 54 in senbatsu election and 17 overall for ske48 even if you count concurrency.. but she still can't make a senbatsu of more than 20 members

So I dunno anything about how they choose senbatsu and how the management rank them.

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#79 CanCan★

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Posted 07 September 2014 - 06:13 AM

LOL .. Yamada Nana ..
Am I getting this right?
We are talking about the Yamada Nana who is Captain of Team M and Senbatsu of both SKE48 and NMB48?
How many double senbatsu in 48G can you name? .. and how many double senbatsu can you name who is also a captain?

If this is the "Next" card .. I would love to have all of my oshimens getting it ..

So the only way to show that they are pushing her is to put her into AKB48 senbatsu and she be a triple senbatsu ..?
think about it .. who in 48G done that ..? triple senbatsu .. triple senbatsu and a captain ..

Honestly .. have anyone even thought about it ?
If she got into AKB48 senbatsu .. it would make her the most favored member ever in the history of idol ..
So I don't get the part about them not pushing her ..

btw .. triple senbatsu .. I can only think about Miyuki .. but she didn't get into senbatsu for this election .. so she still need to get into 38th ..
Technically.. She is the most favored member ever in the history of idol.. bet you didn't notice .. :P
oh well .. now that you notice .. bet you going hate her even more? .. >.<
Please do not hate Watanabe Miyuki ... :)

 

then I bet you didn't notice that Matsui Rena is the one that have most exposure, even more than Watanabe Miyuki

she is the most favored member I think

she is on AKB48 single - even ranked #5 on last election, appear on almost every single

she is on SKE48 - no #2, appear on every single

she is on Nogizaka46 - she's top 5 member on senbatsu, appear on last 2 single

she's gettin triple senbatsu



#80 Ares13

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Posted 07 September 2014 - 07:13 AM

^ ..lol I notice .. but I was trying to like restrict it to just 48G
I even check to see if she is still captain of a team.. LOL :D
My info on the present 48G is a mess .. too much mixing around ..

anyway since we are at Nogizaka46 ..
bet people didn't know that Nogizka46's sales are better than SKE48 and NMB48 now ..
and again .. the single that Rena is in .. actually sold less than the one before that ..
but the figures is quite close .. we can attribute the slight drop because of the huge amount of summer activities

For the last Nogizaka46 single .. I was in Japan during their first week ..
It's like imba promotion .. the song is everywhere .. the PV was like everywhere ..
only beaten by that Frozen soundtrack .. that keep telling you to "let it go" ..actually the Japanese version is "truthfully"
What can I say .. the song is great, the PV is nice .. I was really tempted to buy ..

But ..remember my 48G boycott? .. It does extend to Nogizaka46 ..
anyway .. my oshimen Mahiro .. just keep going here and there ..
the girls just keep getting moved around ..
make me think that Aki-P is using them as test rats ..
its like Aki-P thinks .. "what if I just down a kami level girl out of senbatsu?"
guess he should have figured out what i said .. that senbatsu don't really affect sales when you are hot..

either that or Aki-P just have no idea on the direction of Nogizaka46
because I can't really see a direction with Nogizaka46 .. unless they are suppose to be unique in that area ..
but honestly I don't know anything about them ..
There is too little info internationally going around .. and Sony just block us all overseas..
So I already drop Nogizaka46 out of my group that I support list ..
I just dunno how to support them .. I think I can get more info from a group from Mars than them ..

if you look at the Nogizka46 thread here .. the last post is still my nonsense post about ikoma wonderful body .. >.<

but in all .. Nogizaka46 is on a rise .. their content is better than 46G .. now ..
but we know the person who decide on their content is the same person ..
So ..whats in his mind?
Is he limiting 48G .. so that he can finally build a powerful 46G to challenge 48G

same thing about balance .. 48G cannot go much further .. and the only way is to bleed 48G to create a rival ..
So in the end the man will make more $$$ and fame ..
you know the "he did it again" .. "he did it for AKB48 and now he did it for NGZK46" ..
and maybe get his face on their yen money notes in time ..

anyway .. now this is my pure speculation with no grounds because I don't know enough of Nogizaka46 to remotely comment actually ..

=================================================================================

back to 38 single speculation .
all this Nogizaka46 talk ...
makes me think that they are going to have 2 Nogizka46 member in AKB48 singles ..
we have Ikoma and Rena .. making Rena not count for SKE48 ..
So we may get 1 more SKE48 .. of course it will be Mizuho .. LOL kidding ..
probably be Akari .. I think ..




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