74 replies to this topic

[culex]

It look likes they wont keep the progress secret because some results for HS meetings are out

http://www.akb48.co.jp/pennantrace/

[gryzze]

I don't get it. If only handshake points have been added so far how come HKT didn't come out on top?

 

H and KIV have the highest sold out ratio for Labrador Retriever. Is it because of the concurrencies?

[culex]

I presume its for the janken single HS event that happened today.

hkt only had 4 sellouts from preorders for that +1 for kimoto kanon

[gryzze]

I see, that makes sense.

 

AKB is at a huge advantage since sister group members only get points for AKB's handshake events.

[dev-null]

Entirely rigged, as expected.

[satchan]

Rigged? You mean the group that has 25 members per team including members from other groups at their own handshake events has a distinct advantage?

[Ares13]

er .. anyone has a much simpler explanation on what this is about .. I really got no idea ..kind of lost with all this numbers and formula ... >.<

[Ketchup]

If they wanted to make it more fair they should give more points to the original teams of concurrent members.

[Muneshige]

Maybe it is better to think of it as two different races.

 

One race between A, K, B and 4 who are guaranteed the top 4 spots.

 

And another race between all the teams of sister groups.

In which case.... who knew HKT48 was the most popular sister group. They have taken a shocking early lead.

[culex]

How did you get that. 

If you add up all the numbers hkt is last at 13.15

nmb at 13.45

ske at 17.2

[Muneshige]

How did you get that. 

If you add up all the numbers hkt is last at 13.15

nmb at 13.45

ske at 17.2

 

Average points per team rather than total. That 13.15 comes from only 2 teams while that 13.45 and 17.2 come from 3 teams each.

 

Yes, if one has three teams then they can do more stage performances-- and the same people probably go to multiple teams handshake events and such.

But out of the sister group teams, KIV is dominating and H is in place #3.

[gryzze]

Does anyone know if they compensate for team sizes? Team A and 4 has 23 members for example while Team S has 17 members. Team A and 4 are currently at top and S almost at the bottom. Coincidence?

[AragonDx]

can someone tell me what is this "pennant race" thing? 

[Krusha]

AragonDX, read the first post. Basically it's a team vs. team race.

gryzze,

I don't know if they do, but they really ought to. AKB48 has 4 teams, SKE48 and NMB48 has 3 teams, while HKT48 has 2 teams. AKB48 has more members on average in their teams than the other teams, and AKB48 teams perform in average much more than the other teams. The exception here is HKT48 who has had many performances but not as many as AKB48 - and in total they cannot even dream to match AKB48 because they have 2 teams and AKB48 have 4.

Anyways, updated results: http://www.akb48.co.jp/pennantrace/

Someone posted this on 2ch:

Number of team performances in theater since September 2013 til April 4th 2014:

2013年9月～2014年4月（峯岸チーム4結成8/24）の劇場公演数

チームA　 40回
チームK　 55回
チームB　 45回
チーム4　 99回

チームS　 38回
チームKⅡ 36回
チームE　 34回

チームN　 24回
チームM　 37回
チームBⅡ 49回

チームH　 66回

[gryzze]

After going over the rules again I'm pretty sure they don't compensate for team sizes.

The AKB48 teams have more members, more performances, sister group top members are concurrent in their teams, no top members of their own (except Yukirin) are concurrent in any sister groups etc etc

Things will only look worse once they start adding points for performances.

 

There's no way that the sister group team can beat them with the current rules and it should've been obvious to the management from the start.

 

So the question is: What is the point of the race?

[Krusha]

It's a very good question.

I have seen zero comments from any fan, be it it AKB, SKE, NMB, or HKT that goes "I love this penant race! It's super fair and quite exciting!". Nobody has said this. In fact they all point out the ridiculously gaping holes in the system, such as what you just mentioned (team size, more members, more performances, and so on). Management cannot be so stupid that they are completely oblivious and unaware of this.

I hope the members themselves are made aware of this. Because they put a lot of pride into what they do. And it cannot be fun seeing that you're at the bottom of some rank. They need to know, that there's a hugely unfair situation going on here, and explained why that is so. And any girl who wishes that her team can win this or do well, ought to stop their concurrent activities at once. It makes no sense being Sakura wanting Team KIV to win, if she's also scoring points for Team A in the process. Or Nagisa wanting Team BII to win, but scoring points for Team 4 as well.

 

I am quite certain of course that they really don't have much of a say in this however, and couldn't just "quit" being a concurrent member out of the blue. And they've been put in a rough spot as well (if they realize how this penant system works) because they are hurting their original team when they score points for another team as well, but then they also get extra exposure from being in another team as well...

[gryzze]

Exactly. If fans take this race seriously (I hope not) then there could be a lot of weird consequences.

 

It could for example hurt the concurrent members chances in the election.

Of course if it's your oshi you will vote for her. But let's say you intended to vote for your oshi but also on one of them.

Now suddenly by voting for them you'll be hurting your favorite team or your oshi's team.

[Krusha]

I hadn't actually thought about that, before the election.

 

So, not only will it affect the outcome of the penant race if you're a person who gives votes to your oshi but also to another girl(s), but now, if you don't want to hurt your favorite team (if you're invested in the penant race), the outcome is that it affects those girls who rely on additional votes from fans. I wonder just how many fans as a whole in total will care about this, because it could change the outcome in the election. At least in the lower ranks.

[satchan]

Why do they have to put sister groups at such a disadvantage for this? Aside as a move to entice more handshake sales to keep the million streak alive or to keep up the facade that AKB48 is infinitely more popular than the sister groups, why even include the sister groups? Would the formula have given sister groups an unfair advantage for having the audacity to have their own handshake events? God forbid, I suppose.

 

Hopefully no one cares about this. Consequences for something that doesn't seem set up in a way to create a level playing field would be a horrible thing to see.

[minaeshi]

It looks like a two way battle. Teams A, K, B, and 4 against each other and teams S, KII, E, N, M, BII, H, and KIV against each other. AKB4 already have the advantage whether its for the amount of members in their team, popularity, or popular sister group members in their team as kennin, so they're automatically in their own league.