134 replies to this topic

[MocchiMooch]

Just please, dear lord, let Umeda make it into the senbatsuuuuuuuuuu.

[minaeshi]

It's going to be extremely hard for mayu to get number one now.. 

Sasshi had no intention of making #1 last year. That was all down to fans wanting to show management that their rules are shit, and if they continue her fans will continue to break AKB48's status quo by making her #1. But this year sasshi wants to be #1 again. she actually wants senbatsu center. Because of this her fans are going to go all out and I think they might even break the 200,000 mark.

 

If Mayu/Yukirin/Jurina fans don't step it up or Yuko doesn't join in with the elections for the last time then Sasshi is 70% likely to win this year. 

[True_Beginner]

It's hard to imagine how many votes it will take to win the election, I think we'll be looking at a greater increase from last year because of all the openings brought on by recent graduations. Team 4 seems to have gained a lot of popularity for itself, HKT keeps growing, and numerous pushes are still looking to reap even bigger rewards. I can't imagine who could ever duplicate what Sasshi has accomplished so far, it's unreal by even AKB standards. 

 

If they require members to apply like last year, it wouldn't surprise me if a few senior members even backed out, but I'm not betting on someone like Takamina doing that, since I think she still likes being apart of the group activities and not just being a manager. I know Churi said last year she probably wouldn't run again if she couldn't increase her rank, but I hope she changes her mind...especially if the SKE graduation list that's been circulating around turns out to be true.

 

What makes this election exciting is how competitive it's going to be, a lot of idols made great progress from all the groups, so the vote totals probably will be a lot closer together too. There's always a little shuffling outside of senbatsu, and this year will be another example of that I feel. And the difference between Future Girls/Next Girls or Next Girls/Under Girls may only be a couple hundred or thousand votes.

[rwprazr]

many senbatsu has been graduated , so let's make a generation changer . the member in under girls can be into the senbatsu like Aya , Ricchan , Umechan , Annin .

 

why does not make them into senbatsu ?? remember the older can be replace by the younger ^^

from me , i wish aya can be senbatsu although she is ranked in 16/15

 

that's my oponion ^^

[minaeshi]

I think the girls who could make senbatsu this year are Miichan, Ricchan, Umechan, Kitarie and Annin~ 

[skydrive27]

maybe fans (the voters) yuko,mariko,tomochin,sayaka will choose new gen akb. and now many akb wota complain too many sister group member in akb senbatsu (especially ske with 3 member), maybe the one of reason to powerwote new/old gen akb member.

 

prediction

senbatsu: miichan, ricchan, yuria

undergirl: kojimako, annin, muto, mariyagi

nextgirl: naachan, miki, naanya, tano

future girl: renacchi, juri, karen

[MocchiMooch]

I've decided that if I can guess all 16 of the senbatsu, I'm finally going to buy my dream fragrance. It's a $500 highly prized narcissus absolute from Christopher Brosius. 

 

And just because I like to treat myself, if I'm wrong but still manage to guess the top 12, I'll buy something for myself that's less than $150 haha. 

 

EDIT:

I went ahead and wrote out my predictions. That way, my bracket is set in stone for when the judgment day comes I made some weird choices that felt odd to put down on paper, but I think this senbatsu is pretty unpredictable with all the line-up changes, random pushes, scandals, etc..

 

I put Takajo and Umeda at the top of the UG, as a form of wishful thinking For the anti-kanji people, my guesses are:

 

1.) Sashihara Rino (Pulling for the first consecutive senbatsu win!)

2.) Watanabe Mayu (I'd rather her win, but 2nd is still a wonderful place for my Mayu)

3.) Kojima Haruna (She's undeniably perfect. And after Ereki, I think she could pull #3)

4.) Matsui Jurina (She's the new star, so it's high time for her to make it to the top five)

5.) Kashiwagi Yuki (Not sure if I should've put her here or not…she seems to be disappearing a bit)

6.) Matsui Rena (She's very popular, though I don't quite see her appeal. I put her here because I know she'll rank high)

7.) Takahashi Minami (I'd rather her win it all, but it's unlikely..so I just put her here)

8.) Yamamoto Sayaka (This girl is too perfect, but I put her in the middle since she's a sister group member haha)

9.) Shimazaki Haruka (It's high time she starts ranking higher. She's important for AKB's future. She's like the new Mayu)

10.) Yokoyama Yui (Just like Paruru, it's time for her to start ranking higher. She's another undeniable piece of perfection)

11.) Minegishi Minami (I've basically already forgotten her scandal, and I hope everyone else has as well. I want her to be in the senbatsu this year)

12.) Miyazawa Sae (Wilting flower? Not this girl. Now that she's a captain, I hope her prominence increases)

13.) Kawaei Rina (Senbatsu time for the baby! I'd much rather her be accompanied into the senbatsu with Iriyama, but Kawaei has emerged as the more popular one)

14.) Kitahara Rie (Utterly gorgeous girl with so much potential and increasing popularity. So I want her in the senbatsu)

15.) Suda Akari (I'm not sure how to feel about her. I don't quite see why she ranked in the senbatsu last year…but now that she's a captain, I think she'll rank here again)

16.) Watanabe Miyuki (Scandal blah blah blah. I adore her, but she seems to have slipped a bit as demonstrated in that survey. So hopefully she still makes senbatsu)

 

[skydrive27]

wow.... i think top 3 too high for kojiharu..

 

but I've been happy if he could beat takamina.

[MocchiMooch]

In retrospect, I should've maybe switched Jurina and Kojima. But ahh well. A man can dream!

[IdolLoverHisame]

At the rate the applications are rolling in I might have no reason to vote this year. Mariyagi hasn't submitted her application yet and none of my back-up members to vote for have either.

[Krusha]

Who cares about the rate of applications? It was like this last year too. It took a long time. And it will take a long time this year as well. All that matters is the election, which takes place in June. And we're in April.

[Juriken'14(狩)]

^

yes but IdolLoverHisame does have a point since the application deadline is April 6

 

and it does kill your interest if your fav didn't hand in the application lol

[Krusha]

OK that's true, I forgot about the deadline. Well, I have no idea how many applications are coming, but I don't trust the official site to show everything up to date real time.

 

It would be ridiculous if a lot of girls didn't participate though.

[sidhme]

Yeah, that's why I never really understood why they adopted a candidacy system last year.

There are no benefits of importance to it, at least none that I can see.

If members who have no real expectations to reach Senbatsu or even the other groupings,start to drop out of the election,

the lustre and indeed the spirit of the election in the first place is gone. Mngmnt could just as well hand us a shortlist of candidates.

 

As mentioned above, if your favourites don't apply for candidace, what's the point of voting?

If none of my favourites did, I'd never bother to even follow the election. What's the point? Not to mention cancelling my preorders.

I would rather vote for Minerva, the bowlegged, male prostitute hooking on the corner of 53rd & 3rd, than to vote for, say, Jurina. 

 

As "hopes" is in this threads title, I'd say, after the slightly turbulent first quarter of 2014 has ended, I hope that AkiP gets a better grip on his

monstrous entertainment machine, lest it starts to eat itself... 

[ichigoberry13]

I personally don't think any of the Team 8 members will rank as no one knows anything about them (unless people are voting based on looks alone) I also had a pretty good idea of how I thought the rankings would pan out but thats all changed since I saw the RH2014 rankings, I think there will be more 14th/15th gen members ranking higher. I don't think Mayu will rank #1 though :/ I really don't want Sasshi center again

[Muneshige]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Sashihara's rank. She was a dark horse no one was expecting and her sudden and epic rise last year had a few interesting consequences.

 

People who had no idea who she was (I still mix up Sashihara Rino and Kitahara Rie) now know who she is which means... more support for her. The song with her as center ended up being the single most popular AKB song since Heavy Rotation. I don't know if the sales reflect that, but the amount I have heard it in the past year definitely reflects that. Heart Elegi went entirely unnoticed by most people, but Koisuru Fortune Cookie is still constantly done by people in karaoke.

 

Also, the fact that she grabbed #1 after a scandal and transfer seemed like a big F.U. to management. You know, there is an idea that Japanese people just don't question or disobey authority and while that may often be true... apparently its not the case with AKB fans. Apparently hearing that the girls have sex lives doesn't affect them negatively at all. Miichan's popularity rose after her whole scandal as well. Then again... the nature of Rino's scandal may well have given more than a few fans... let us say "hope"? Anyway, the fact that management was threatening to demote her almost out of the company and then suddenly she was the center certainly made some people feel quite happy.

 

So Sashihara will get even more people voting for her this time who didn't last time. UNLESS, people who got her to #1 last time feel quite satisfied and confident and decide to support other members they like because they feel confident that, even if she isn't the Center, Rino is now a permanent senbatsu member and they are satisfied with that.

 

On the other hand, everyone had kind of expecting Mayuyu to get center. It is hard to argue that Mayuyu hasn't earned that. Maybe not as much as Takamina, Kojihara and Miichan, but... still... she's quite the actress and very lovely. Everyone expected her to win and... she kind of got robbed. I think those who like her will push harder.

 

There are also those who, for whatever crazy reason, hate Sashihara. Perhaps only because she is popular. Maybe they hate the idea that she got famous because of doing something forbidden. There might be a lot of these. Thing is-- in the senbatsu, you can't vote AGAINST someone. So unless they all choose to rally behind the same person, an idea I find very unlikely, this isn't going to hurt her nearly as much as those who supported her before resting or deciding to raise the rank of others. Even if ALL the people who don't like her vote for the same person, it will only lower her rank by 1 and she'll still be in senbatsu.

 

I don't even think those who like Rino really necessarily feel they NEED her as #1, just like people who like Takamina aren't going to push like crazy to get her to #1. They just vote to make sure she doesn't lose her spot.

[Ares13]

I personally don't think any of the Team 8 members will rank as no one knows anything about them (unless people are voting based on looks alone) I also had a pretty good idea of how I thought the rankings would pan out but thats all changed since I saw the RH2014 rankings, I think there will be more 14th/15th gen members ranking higher. I don't think Mayu will rank #1 though :/ I really don't want Sasshi center again

remember that computer generated girl? .. people rush to her support even though they didn't see her in real life ..
Team 8 girls have 2 months to meet the fans in real life .. a good idol only need a second to get you in a fan meeting actually ..

==============================================================

honestly .. as usual .. I am not really interested with top positions ..
i am more interested on who is going to get in the first time .. and who is going to drop out ..
who get a huge improved position and who get a huge drop ..
and those surprise surprise .. which make both the girls and fans cry together ..
and of course .. the AKB48, SKE48, NMB48 , HKT48 ratio ...
remember 2012 ? when SKE48 switch position after position in a row .. this is the kind of moment that I like to see

[AragonDx]

There are also those who, for whatever crazy reason, hate Sashihara. Perhaps only because she is popular. Maybe they hate the idea that she got famous because of doing something forbidden. There might be a lot of these. Thing is-- in the senbatsu, you can't vote AGAINST someone. So unless they all choose to rally behind the same person, an idea I find very unlikely, this isn't going to hurt her nearly as much as those who supported her before resting or deciding to raise the rank of others. Even if ALL the people who don't like her vote for the same person, it will only lower her rank by 1 and she'll still be in senbatsu.

 

LOL, true story. My friend hates Sashi only because she's singing Maeda Atsuko (which is my friend's ex-oshi)'s Kimi wa Boku da in Manatsu Dome Tour 

[sidhme]

 

Muneshige, on 09 Apr 2014 - 09:27, said:

I don't even think those who like Rino really necessarily feel they NEED her as #1, just like people who like Takamina aren't going to push like crazy to get her to #1. They just vote to make sure she doesn't lose her spot.

 

You make an interesting point here, Muneshige, and a valid one, in my opinion. 

Most fans are satisfied with their oshi gaining ranks, and should she reach Senbatsu ( or even any of the groupings) they've got what they were aiming for.

And unless the idol in question has been pushed into the spotlight, or if her agency has got her more "public" work (which in my opinion is NOT the same as being pushed),

I don't think they necessarily make extra efforts to make her rise. In addition, I feel that many of us tend to neglect the "casual fan" voters, and only focus on the strategies and voting efforts of the hardcore wotas. There are of course more of those than there is maniac wotas with bottomless bank accounts. And I think that's why Sasshi won last year, both because of a serious effort of fans wanting to give mngmnt an embarrassing middle finger, and because of her very real popularity from tv-shows watched by a lot more people (read: casual fans) than the programs produced by mngmnt and the record label.

 

This year, though I think Sasshi has a very real chance of winning, I am not so sure she will. Mayuyu has a good shot, Yukirin is still around and there's the matter of 100k+ Yuko votes floating around (maybe not all of those will find a mark, but a substantial amount will). In addition, you have Jurina to consider as well as some potential dark ponies.

My bet is Sasshi 1st, Mayuyu 2nd, Jurina 3rd followed by Yukirin, alternatively Mayuyu switch places with Sasshi (though I hope not, obviously)

 

AragonDX:

LOL, true story. My friend hates Sashi only because she's singing Maeda Atsuko (which is my friend's ex-oshi)'s Kimi wa Boku da in Manatsu Dome Tour  

 

LOL. I have read many similar things on various forums (not only about Sasshi though) and after a while it didn't really bother me.

There are alot of pettiness within the world of idol fandom, I'm afraid, and though they don't seriously hate said idol (they use the word as most people do: without really knowing what it means, and thus confuse it with the word "dislike"), they manage to spread a serious amount of gall and poorly disguised bitterness online. And as long as it happens on the net, there's really no way to do anything about them. It's the downside of anonymity, really, that the cowardly can "empower" themselves by becoming bullies.

This might indicate that I look down on such people, but one can't really blame people for being petty, uneducated or socially inept (for whatever reason).

[Muneshige]

The thing about Sashihara's overwhelming victory last year was that getting her the victory was relevant in that particular moment. Many of those who voted for her 100 times are simply not going to do so this time. So a lot of the votes she got last time will evaporate. I don't think anyone could ignore that her rank was inflated well beyond what it would have been if it had been 1 fan, 1 vote.

 

Now, on the other hand, having grabbed the center allowed her grab a lot of attention. Plus, her transfer to HKT seems like less of a demotion now that she is ruling over the (mostly) little kids group like a queen (the dynamic feels a lot like Sayumi in the current Morning Musume)-- as opposed to Lovetan who didn't really stand out much as a leader. So now she has become the favorite of a lot of people who didn't even know who she was. But I don't think any of them are going to undertake the costly effort that got her the #1 spot last year. I mean, after all, all the new fans she got were casual fans anyway.

 

Anyone who doesn't like her can't negatively impact her rank. If she doesn't take spot #1, and I really think there is no reason to think she will, it is really far more of a reflection of the fact that there isn't the major campaign to drag her out of obscurity this year like last year. It will have nothing to do with people disliking her or her having disappointed those who voted for her before.

 

The loss of Tomomi, Mariko and Yuko will probably mean that this time there will be less overall votes than before, but... just like when Atsuko graduated, I think the result will simply be that everyone below them will simply have their rank will rise by about 3. There was only 1 other girl in the top 64 who graduated since last year though, I am sure there will be some shuffling of ranks.

 

I think the insert of the Nogizaka girl will likely prove to be interesting.