134 replies to this topic

[Ares13]

LOL .. in all ..
We must still realize we got to do something if we want something ..
In the end .. if we get defeated ..its just more people or someone wanted something more than us ..
I will always accept the result because it is the fans choice and I respect that ..
There are either more fans who wanted this result or there are fans who would put more on the line than me ..

To me it would be healthier if you wish or hope the idol you support or like to do well ..
but hoping idols you don't like to bomb out or hoping this idol would beat another because you just don't like the other idol ..
or hoping for a result because it would piss off a group or certain fans .. all this ain't healthy and nice to me at all.. sorry ..

[hitoyou]

There are four big battles for the senbatsu spots that will hold me in a nervwrecking and tight grip as the girls names are called:

 

1. Sasshi vs Mayuyu for 1st place. Election winners can't win twice in a row it seems. Sasshi fans have completed their mission and took No.1 and won't be as eager to spend huge amount of money again on something they already got. Mayuyu fans knows that this is the big opportunity to finally be at the top. 50,000 votes makes a big gap though so i still think that Sasshi got a nice possibility to defend her top postion this year.

 

2. Yuihan vs Sayanee vs Milky. I thought that Milky had a good chance of passing Sayanee in the last election but it was a surprisingly big gap between them in the end. Takamina said that she though Sayanee would be in top 10 in the next election but that doesn't mean that Milky will be behind in the end and both of them have enjoyed a great momentum since the election... No doubt that Milky wants to be No.1 in NMB, and for the whole 48G for that matter , and her fans might not show any mercy this time. Which leads to Yuihan and what will happen to her in the middle of this Sayamilky battle. 

 

3. Will there be four SKE girls in senbatsu? It was really close last year and the conditions are better than ever. Aya, Yuria, Churi, Airin, Non, Kaotan, Oya were all in UG... Yeah, I think it will happen this time. How about Kaotan in senbatsu

 

4. Sakura vs Haruppi for senbatsu. Not being able to vote at least one original HKT girl into senbatsu would be a huge fail. Yes Sasshi is not an unlikely winner but she already had a solid AKB fanbase before she became a HKT memeber. The 48G community would have laughted their asses off if NMB would have failed last year and the same goes for HKT this time. I have no doubts that it will work out splendidly, just can't decide who it will be.

 

 

 

- I foresee a decreasing number of total votes this time so if a girl could maintain her vote count, or even increase it slightly, it would make a nice difference for the ranks below senabtsu.

- NMB Ogasawara could drop out of top 64 and Miru should have a big chance of entering. Some girl will get a Shu push but I think that Miru will be able to rank without it, well, Nagisa has been pushed pretty hard. How about Shimarena?

- AKB Suzuran, Iwasa,  Maeda, Sakiko will struggle to not fall off the board. Naachan, Kojimako, Naanya, Mikichan should rank fairly easy.

- SKE Don't feel like SKE fans will abandon any of the girls. Manatsu fans will go crazy if she decides to join this time.

- HKT No dropouts, a bunch of new entires. Thought that HKT would have more girls ranked than NMB last year... didn't happen. This time might be the year.

[Ares13]

I am also interested to see the fan "climate"
As we know the old idea of fandom is the "oshimen" ideal.. where fans pick 1 girl and would vote that 1 girl year after year ..
I somehow feel that there is a change with the old fans having their original oshimen graduating and new fans who don't really subscribe to that ideal

while the old idea is still around with fans of old dominance members like Mayuyu, Yukirin, Takamina..
I feel there is a change with old fans with their original idol graduated like Acchan, Yuko, Mariko, Tomochin ..
What I mean is .. those old fans who supported 1 girl throughout .. when their oshimen graduated, they didn't choose 1 girl to replace and continue the same ..
They becoming more like a "MD" , "DD" .. where they do not have loyalty to 1 girl ..
We can use it as a indicator.. If we see certain idols doing surprising well last year but drop this year .. while another idol doing surprising well this year ..
but obviously .. it is not totally conclusive ...

[Krusha]

First requirement for being MD is that you have an oshimen.

[satchan]

Unless Yuko doesn't run and her votes all go to Mayuyu, Sasshi was a one-off fluke, or fans just push Mayu to keep Sasshi from winning, I have no idea how Mayu wins the election. I thought last year was her "best" chance to jump up to #1, and she wasn't close to Yuko at all. She might be #1 at some point, but I think it's going to take a lack of challenge around her more than her improving her own stance.

 

I can see Takamina and Kojiharu slipping a bit more to make room for Paru/Yui/Sayanee/Milky, who I can see all jumping past those two. Jurina I would think has a chance to move past Yukirin. I think Ricchan will make the senbatsu. Curious how SKE's Akarin and Ayachan perform after their big years. I think Sayanee stays in front of Milky, but that'll be an interesting race.

 

Team 4/15th gen girls will make the biggest impact, I think as far as new entries. It'll just shuffle out some of the "older" AKB girls and maybe some fringe sister group girls in the process. I imagine all of last year's HKT girls will move up, whether anyone gets into the senbatsu, I don't know. That's a long jump to make for Haruppi. Sakura might be able to. I'm sure most of the SKE girls will hold steady, though some of those end of the election girls might be in a little trouble. Plus, Nao might need a good showing to avoid being Renacchi (who I think could probably stand to make it too).

 

For NMB, I will be shocked if Mirurun doesn't make it, but she might be the only new face I really expect. Nagisa maybe if they give her a big first half of the year, but I think she'll fall a little short this year unless we can't escape her for the next six months. Maachun slipping out seems like a possibility, but I think she'll hold on and I don't expect Akarin, Fuuchan, Keicchi, or Nana to fall out (Nana might slip back though?). I think this is a big year for those back senbatsu girls like Ripopo, Kanakichi, Airi, Shimarena, Keila, Saepy, Yuipon, Uuka, etc. They're next in line. It'd be nice if a couple of them broke through.

[Krusha]

Mayuyu to me has a lot of unused potential to be honest. She's great, but she's also "not there yet". I feel she just holds back, and it's a pity because she has so much more to offer, but she seems to be safing it by her massive popularity, so she doesn't do much at all. Her and Rabutan have been very close together, but unlike Mayuyu, Rabutan didn't have the massive popularity, and struggled much more. In AKB48 Rabutan fell behind, in the shadows of a lot of girls, and thus just disappeared. It wasn't til the transfer to HKT48 that she ressurected herself and have now become much more interesting. What I'm saying, is that I think Mayuyu is in a similar situation, except her already established popularity keeps her in the spotlight, without her having to do much at all.

I don't know if she will drop in popularity, but I also just don't see what she has to make her win the election. Anything is possible, but she never does anything out of the ordinary. The first major such moment was in the Mechaike sports festival - a rather rare moment of variety TV gold for her.

I think it's annoying, because she can do so much more, and she's also rather crazy at times, but we almost never get to see that part of her, so she just ends up being boring and dull for the most time.

Comparing her with Sasshii, I think Sasshii has to have far more casual fans than Mayuyu.

[Ares13]

^x3 true but it don't require them to vote for her during senbatsu election ..
In fact .. MD are suppose to vote for the greater good of the group or the idols .. which will cause randomness in voting ..
It may become event base .. a question of what is importance for that moment ..

In any case .. the whole oshimen thing is getting obsolete .. it is useful during the growing phase of AKB48 ..
but now .. AKB48 or AKB48 group has grow so much and there are so many newcomer and the management are struggling to push them all ..
furthermore the new fans have diluted the ideal and the old fans having their original oshimen graduate ..
It is becoming a relic that does more harm than good .. like the idea of 3 teams, 16 members a team total 48 member .. which is what it is about but they can't keep it this way forever ..

anyway .. I also do not think Sasshi will win this year ..
Last year, it is important that she win ..but this year I feel the importance the fans will be going for is to give it to deserving members that have serve for a long time but failing to win ..
last last year (2012) .. The importance was to give it to lowly recognized but deserving members who serve for a long time but failing to get a place..
In 2012, we did not see Acchan fans throw their money on Mayuyu to try to make sure Yuko don't win .. She won by a convincing margin ..
I really don't think it will be mostly on hate basis where they just throw their money on the other idol because they didn't want this idol to win ..
Basically .. I think its more about what they want happen than what they do not want to happen ..

but in all .. I maybe wrong .. I will just wait and see ..
In the end .. this is just fan theories .. it really does not matters ..
It does not increases my fan enjoyment ..

In all .. fans does not matter much to me .. but I do get inspired by great fans .. those who does it for their idols, for the idols without any reward..
That's why .. even though I am not a fan of Sasshi .. it was actually great to see how the fans backed her in supposedly her lowest moment ..
To me it is just prove that fans can be trusted and that no rumor, paparazzi, trouble maker can strike them down but will make them even stronger ..
All these great fans makes me proud to be a AKB48 group fan .. and not because of their million sales or record breaking achievements ...

[Tsurugi_Ken]

Mayuyu to me has a lot of unused potential to be honest. She's great, but she's also "not there yet". I feel she just holds back, and it's a pity because she has so much more to offer, but she seems to be safing it by her massive popularity, so she doesn't do much at all. Her and Rabutan have been very close together, but unlike Mayuyu, Rabutan didn't have the massive popularity, and struggled much more. In AKB48 Rabutan fell behind, in the shadows of a lot of girls, and thus just disappeared. It wasn't til the transfer to HKT48 that she ressurected herself and have now become much more interesting. What I'm saying, is that I think Mayuyu is in a similar situation, except her already established popularity keeps her in the spotlight, without her having to do much at all.

I don't know if she will drop in popularity, but I also just don't see what she has to make her win the election. Anything is possible, but she never does anything out of the ordinary. The first major such moment was in the Mechaike sports festival - a rather rare moment of variety TV gold for her.

I think it's annoying, because she can do so much more, and she's also rather crazy at times, but we almost never get to see that part of her, so she just ends up being boring and dull for the most time.

Comparing her with Sasshii, I think Sasshii has to have far more casual fans than Mayuyu.

You're right with the unused potential. She's actually very funny in radio shows, backstage footage and such when she's off her Idol Mode, but you rarely get to see or hear about those moments. Her and Kobayashi's whole Takarazuka roleplaying could be shown much more in 48 group shows if staff really wanted to show off her geeky and funny sides, but we get nothing.

 

It isn't that she's being safe though, it's really the fact that she's too used to being in Idol Mode (Kashiwagi suffers from this too), and that there are too little opportunities for her to actually show what she's got. Mechaike didn't even come close to showing how wacky she could actually be.

[Ares13]

Oh .. enough with all this heavy stuff ..
I got to do my fanboying stuff ..lol this is the fun part ..

I want Mayuyu to win because she have the same birthdate as me ..
anyway .. I know none of my oshimen stand a chance for the top 12 ..realistically top 16..lol

AKB48 - I hope Renacchi will get a place finally as she is reaching the end of her push if she don't make it she will never make it ..
SKE48 - obviously .. it would be great if Mizuho get a place .. it will round up a great series of events starting from the point of her promotion ..
NMB48 - I hope Shuu will get even better position and Keira to finally get a place because she is also reaching the end of her push if she don't make it she will never make it ..
HKT48 - I hope Sakura improve on her position and best if she get into senbatsu ..
In all .. the most impossible but best story I hope for is for Meru to fly into senbatsu and fulfill her destiny ..

In all .. I wouldn't be able to make any of those happen .. because i will be voting for Aamin (Maeda Ami) .. my highest idol for anything ..
win or lose .. I will still support her to the end .. obviously ..My greatest hope for this senbatsu election is for her to do well ..

[Andrikutai48]

yeah i don't care about the rangkings, the only things i want is to see mayuyu

[MocchiMooch]

As much as I want to see Mayu as the center, I also really wish there could be a huge bombshell being dropped. That'd be so exciting. Like someone completely unexpected taking the top spot! I know it won't happen, given how predictable the Senbatsu rankings are, but it'd still be so fun.

[Tsurugi_Ken]

Last year's wasn't predictable, unless you really followed HKT's growth and Sashihara's rapidly growing popularity (even then, I and many others, as well as Sashihara herself thought she'd rank 4th).

 

With Oshima likely graduating after the National Olympic Stadium concert, stability in rankings from last year is also less likely to happen. Even Sashihara herself seems unsure whether she'll still rank first this year. In fact, the only girls who seem like they'll remain in a steady position or will rise up just one or two positions higher this year are Watanabe Mayu, Kashiwagi Yuki and the two Matsui girls.

 

This year's senbatsu elections is not only shrouded in mystery, it's also kept even more mysterious because if they maintain the same format as last year (with the girls themselves choosing whether or not to apply for candidacy) you aren't sure whether or not certain girls will choose to apply or not.

 

So if you're looking for another exciting election, then this year's should prove to be one too.

[Krusha]

I actually thought Sasshii could rank #1 last year and was expecting it, but with the kind of tense anticipation that anything can go wrong at any time, so with each announcement in the senbatsu ranks not being Sasshii it got more and more tense until finally it was revealed that she indeed, would win. 

 

Honestly I think it might be much harder to win this year, for whatever reason. Last year she had so much more drive coming up to this event, in terms of coverage, but of course with Yuko gone, who knows, she may very well win it by a massive landslide. I do look forward to it, it will be exciting this year as well, that's for sure.

[Ares13]

Honestly .. my everything tell me that Sasshi is not going to get no.1 this year ..
but the fact remain that the number of votes she got last year was really huge ..
She beat Mayuyu who was 3rd by around 50% more .. I am not sure if this gap is possible to narrow by anyone at all ..

[Pado10]

Well, if you believe about the little jinx that only someone from Ota-pro can take the #1 spot as it's been five years in a row now... then Sasshi has a high chance of winning again .

 

Anyway, if Yuko is not participating, then it will indeed be interesting where her votes will go to as back with Acchan (though no real impact was seen back then...)... and depending who the next team K captain will be, there will be some chance that some votes will flow that way I suppose.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Takamina to rank higher this year and I don't think the fans of Takamina and Nyan Nyan, will stand back after Jurina and Rena ran over them last year. Also, if the fans of Nyan Nyan listened to her, then we might see a huge flood of votes on the first day .

 

Mii-chan will probably get back into senbatsu this year, seeing as her votes didn't decrease at all last year (might just be loyal fans working extra hard though) and she's being doing great since the start of this year with a lot of appearances on various variety shows. Goriki-dance FTW .

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

Right now my feelings about this event are only concentrated on two things. That many of the girls pondering graduation don't stick around long enough for it to be over and done with and that if they do they opt out of participating and spare themselves the stress and disappointment of not ranking or ranking very low and just wait out the time for good days to announce and have their graduations.

[minaeshi]

I'll just say my predictions for senbatsu~ (Taking into account that Sayaka (Aki), Mariko, Tomochin, Sae won't/might not be participating)

 

1 & 2. Sasshi vs Mayuyu

Before I would have said Mayuyu will definitely have this because Sasshi was a one off situation. But after Sasshi declared that she wanted #1 again fans most likely wont stand back and let her lose this so I think it's going to be an all out battle between her and Mayuyu.

 

3 & 4. Yukirin vs Jurina 

Jurina's popularity increased dramatically again so I predict she'll have a secure spot in the Kami 7. Management doesn't seen to care for Yukirin lately but I'm almost certain she still has her fans from previous years that will try to fight her back into the top 3. 

 

5. Takamina (+3)

I say this out of hope because I truly think she deserves it with all the work she does. She's like Yuko now, at the top of the ceiling for her abilities within AKB. Because of this it's most likely this election will be her last as a AKB member so I hope that her fans will get her back into Kami 7 and that she doesn't end up like Tomochin.. 

 

6 & 7. Kojiharu vs Rena 

Once again, an all out battle between them. If Rena doesn't take 5th then here fans will be battling to make her stay in Kami 7. Koji might have gained fans after being center for the 33rd single and she's said she plans to leave AKB this year so her fans well try their best to get her back to the spot she had at the first senbatsu election. 

 

8. Paruru (+4)

She's got the push and the fans and the publicity. It's the highest she can go so far to be honest, unless she and her fans decide to surprise us all like Sasshi haha 

 

9. Sayanee (+5)

Do I even need to explain? Sayanee is gorgeous and she always raises in ranks instead of drops so I honestly do not expect anything less than #10 from her. She along with Yuihan seem to be the 2nd Takamina with their leadership skills so I have high hopes for her. (As she's my favorite AKB/NMB member of all time, even surpassing my love for Acchan, I hope her for to rank higher than this lmao #1 please xoxo)

 

10. Yuihan (+3)

I feel like she will be the one to shove a barrier between Sayanee and Milky. Her ranking has been going up steadily each year by 3/4 so this seems like the most suitable slot for her imo. He seems to have gotten another push so it just solidify's my prediction here. 

 

11. Milky (+4)

Like the other's above, she's gathered many more fans but I just don't see her surpassing Sayanee anytime soon. I won't be surprised if the ranks above Yuihan though. 

 

12. Miichan (+6)

All I have to say is that If she can still get 18th (30k) after a scandal, and then rise up again as the leader of a team and make it back into senbatsu, I truly believe she has the ability to rise up in ranks and fans will do anything to make this happen. 

 

13. Ricchan (+12) 

I know it's a huge jump but if SayaMilky and Sasshi can do it then why not Kawaei? She's shown a significant amount of progress and made a name for herself. To be totally honest I would be happy if she even made senbatsu haha 

 

14 & 15. Suda (+2) or either Shibata, Takajo and KitaRie

I feel like they'll be fighting for this spot haha.. I do hope that Kitarie get's the spot though. She's a known face and still has time to improve her abilities before management decide to give her the boot and let younger gens take over. 

 

16. Umechan (+3)

I think she'll get back into senbatsu but only because the 4 other girls at the top of this post might not participate. If they do however I don't think she'l make it but she'll definitely be under girls center. I hope she makes it though.. I feel like this will be her last year in AKB (considering her age and duration in the group) 

[True_Beginner]

Miichan making senbatsu is something I've felt could happen, she didn't lose much in the last election, except maybe some spots to popular NMB and SKE members, but she's still popular enough to make the higher end of undergirls, so her return is definitely a possibility. Even though SKE and AKB have up and coming members looking to get in, they may still be a year away from reaching their potential. 

 

Either MIichan and someone else from AKB returns, or SKE and AKB pushes start to make their appearance in senbatsu this year. Aya Shibata looks to even have enough momentum to take a spot herself.

[LovelyPrincessP]

The only girl I can think of that ranked in senbatsu, dropped, then ranked back in again is Mocchi. I can easily see Miichan be part of this exclusive club. Her fanbase is rather rock solid and she's sitting at the top of UG so it wouldn't be a stretch at all. 

 

My money's on Sasshi having the first back to back win. There was 30K separating Mayu from Yuko in 2012, last year even with the increased voting and all the "momentum" from her push there was still a 30K gap. There is now 50K separating Mayu and Sasshi and for that gap to close, Sasshi will either have to lose most of those votes or Mayu will have to gain that many (on top of whether increase Sasshi might have)... I don't see either of those things happening. I'd even say that Mayu should be more concerned about Yukirin and Jurina possibly edging her out.  

 

I see another big jump for Sayanee, that girl has been on fire especially in HS sales even beating out Yuko on her own grad single. Milky and Yuihan won't be far behind either. I think they'll all be comfortably in the Top Ten. 

 

I was pretty spot on about where Paruru would rank last year... I think she'll beat out Takamina and Nyanyan ranking within the vicinity of 8 and 10. Suda should also move up a few spots. 

 

As for new entries: My bets are on Kawaei, Miyawaki, and Kizaki... there'll probably be another "surprise" entry though I seriously doubt it'll be anyone from AKB. 

 

As for the rest... really no point in trying to predict honestly. I suspect The Musketeers will make their debuts, popular but not pushed girls like Mariyagi and Tomu will move up a few spots, The HKT Quartet will see big jumps, and Renacchi will once again fail to rank but that won't stop mgmt from continuing the Idol equivalent of trying to squeeze blood from a turnip. 

[Juriken'14(狩)]

hmmmm..... I'm not that optimistic about Miichan

 

last election her wotas (and many orimen wotas) did spend extra money to make sure she didn't drop that much

 

but I'm not so sure this time

 

 

I hope Sakura rank in senbatsu

 

even tho it's extremely hard, but it's not completely farfetched

 

 

 

like every year, I wonder the votes of graduated members will "transfer" to who, or they just simply don't vote at all

 

it's still too early for me to make any "big" predictions lol

 

especially the big shuffle is coming, it could mess up any prediction even if I post mine now lol

 

 

I'm gonna wait until they post the list of girls confirmed their participation