134 replies to this topic

[Team_K_Oshi]

I'm interested in everyone's hopes and predictions for this year's election. I'll start.

Hopes:

The voting period will be extended by a week.
More sister group regular senbatsu members will choose not to participate.

As far as rankings I hope that:

Takajo Aki doesn't rank or ranks 64th.
Kobayashi Kana ranks Future Girls center.
Nagao Mariya, Muto Tomu, & Tano Yuka rank top 25.
Hirajima Natsumi participates and ranks up not down.
Haruppi/Mio/Meru rank up but don't make it to Under Girls.
Nakagawa Haruka participates and ranks Next Girls center.
Fujie Reina will stay in Under Girls and rank up a few places.

Predictions:

Senbatsu:

01: Watanabe Mayu
02: Sashihara Rino
03: Kashiwagi Yuki
04: Takahashi Minami
05: Kojima Haruna
06: Matsui Jurina
07: Matsui Rena
08: Shimazaki Haruka
09: Yamamoto Sayaka
10: Watanabe Miyuki
11: Yokoyama Yui
12: Kawaei Rina
13: Minegishi Minami
14: Iriyama Anna
15: Kitahara Rie
16: Umeda Ayaka

I won't bother with Under Girls/Next Girls/Future Girls as that will give me a headache. I didn't include Yuko or Sae b/c I'm hoping Yuko won't participate even if she stays until the middle/end of the summer and b/c Sae seems very set on focusing exclusively on her activities with SHN48. And for anyone who is going to say I'm a Takajo Aki hater please don't. I'm not super fond of her sure but I don't hate her. My reasoning for wanting her to rank last or not at all is that her reaction to her transfer was terrible and the way she has been treating that transfer has been even worse. She should be working with what she's got not acting like a big baby.

[ParuYui]

I'd like for Kojimako to rank but I guess it would be a bit early, also I'd like Maeda Ami, Paru, Aya, Yuria and Yuihan to rank higher! ^^

 

My prediction ( it won't be right ) :

 

01: Watanabe Mayu

02: Sashihara Rino

03: Kashiwagi Yuki

04: Matsui Jurina

05: Takahashi Minami

06: Kojima Haruna

07: Matsui Rena

08: Shimazaki Haruka

09: Yokoyama Yui

10: Yamamoto Sayaka

11: Watanabe Miyuki

12: Miyazawa Sae

13: Kawaei Rina

14: Minegishi Minami

15: Suda Akari

16: Kitahara Rie

 

 

I think this year might have an interesting outcome

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

Hopes:

Umechan for Senbatsu.
Mariyagi for Under Girls center.
Akicha continues to drop in rank. I used to love this girl but the way she has treated her transfer pisses me off.
Three musketeers, Aigasa Moe, Iwatate Saho, & Murayama Yuiri for Future Girls. I just don't want any of them to eclipse each other or for one of them to be left behind. They are all so full of potential but management seems mainly interested in Kojima Mako who I'm not nearly as fond of as the other big guns from Team 4.
No participation from Yuko or Sae. As much as I love them participation in this event would mean next to nothing for them in the long run. Unless Sae needs a second confirmation that Japan still loves her and both her and Yuko want to stunt the process of natural progression again. 
Less sister group members will choose to participate especially members from their regular senbatsu.
That there will be no unveiling of preliminary results. All those results do is put people who want to vote for an underdog or non-ranker like crazy off of the idea. It's like saying "she has no chance don't bother" and it takes away some of the element of surprise.

Senbatsu Prediction:

01: Watanabe Mayu
I think Mayuyu fans and Oshiri Sisters fans and Sashi haters will be coming for vengeance this year like Acchan fans and Yuko haters back in 2011. I expect at least 170,000 votes for her.
02: Sashihara Rino
I think her fans know the war is coming and won't do gown without a fight. I expect at least 170,000 votes for her.
03: Kashiwagi Yuki
For as much as Yukirin doesn't want the center spot I think her fans will try to get her there with fervor. Let's face it she has all the potential to be a good center despite hating the idea and she has been a contender in this event every year. At the very least I expect her to cross 130,000 votes this year.
04: Takahashi Minami
With all the stressing of the importance of Takamina in AKB recently I think more people will take notice of her and that together with her previous fanbase they will rocket her to her highest ranking yet and over 110,000 votes.
05: Kojima Haruna
With the possibility of Kojiharu's graduation looming overhead her fans will increase their efforts ten fold rocketing her to her highest ranking yet with at least 100,000 votes.
06: Matsui Jurina
Her fans will only try harder for her but since it will not likely be enough she will stay right here. She could easily break 85,000 votes this time though.
07: Matsui Rena
She's always nipping at Jurina's heels why would that change? I expect at least 80,000 votes.
08: Shimazaki Haruka
While her push has shrunk considerably she did appear disappointed in some way at the last election about her rank, strategically so, so much in fact that her fans will go out of their way to get her to 8th place this year. I expect at least 70,000 votes.
09: Yamamoto Sayaka
Bound to happen plain and simple. I expect at least 65,000 votes.
10: Watanabe Miyuki
Bound to happen plain and simple. I expect at least 65,000 votes.
11: Yokoyama Yui
Her rank will drop but her votes will only go up. I expect at least 62,000 votes.
12: Kawaei Rina
She's created lots of buzz this past year and has tons of work. If she doesn't make it to this point I will be surprised. I expect at least 50,000 votes.
13: Minegishi Minami
She's back in management's favor, Captain of a team, and one of three remaining first gens it would be surprising if she didn't regain ground with all of that considered. I expect at least 45,000 votes.
14: Iriyama Anna
While not nearly as buzzing as Kawaei Rina she's still bound to only go up due to continued pushing from management. I'm expecting 40,000 votes.
15: Umeda Ayaka
This is just a feeling. I'm expecting circa 38,000 votes.
16: Kitahara Rie
This is also just a feeling. I'm expecting circa 36,000 votes.

I won't bother making Under Girls/Next Girls/Future Girls predictions until the list of participants is out especially since I want less sister group members to participate and it's they that mostly fill ranks 17-64.
 

[IdolLoverHisame]

^Won't they avoid extending the rule from 3 years in your group to 4 due to members with AV debuts like Nakanishi Rina?

Anyway I'm hoping Nagao Mariya, Muto Tomu, Iwata Karen, and Izuta Rina can all rank Under Girls this year and that Kuramochi Asuka can get the center position for that. I'm hoping Kobayashi Kana can rank at least #50. I won't make any predictions not right now anyway. It's way too early in the year to start guessing.
 

[Tsurugi_Ken]

Like what I wrote in my profile page:

 

Most likely outcome for 2014:

1. Sashihara
2. Watanabe Ma
3. Kashiwagi
4. Matsui J
5. Matsui R
6. Shimazaki
7. Yokoyama
8. Yamamoto
9. Watanabe Mi
10. Kojima
11. Takahashi
12. Suda
13. Shibata
14. Umeda
15. Miyazawa
16. Minegishi

Wishful thinking for 2014:

1. Sashihara
2. Watanabe Ma
3. Matsui J
4. Matsui R
5. Kashiwagi
6. Watanabe Mi
7. Yamamoto
8. Yokoyama
9. Shimazaki
10. Kojima
11. Suda
12. Takahashi
13. Shibata
14. Kawaei
15. Kitahara
16. Umeda

I'm a Kansai-area oshi so I want to see Kansai's big three (Watanabe Miyuki, Yamamoto Sayaka and Yokoyama Yui) climb ever closer to the top and eventually occupy the top 3 spots in the elections, proving that Kansai idol girls are actually high up in the list.

 

Under girls, Next Girls and Future girls predictions and hopes will come later.

[IdolLoverHisame]

^Oh yeah...sorry about that. As for if Tomochin, Sayaka, & Mariko would go for it. I doubt Sayaka would given that she doesn't express good feelings about the event in her the passages in her PB. Mariko doesn't seem too likely either, but Tomochin could be slightly possible. She wanted to rank up last year though and ranked down. With possibility of her rank going down even more I have to wonder if she'd really go for it.

[TheFicusWithSuperPowers]

Okay. I am sad that many of you forget about Saechan.

If it goes the same thing as last year, she will most likely to be part of the Elections. I think she will stay at 10, or she might get a 1 drop or 1 jump but nothing else.

Sashiko might keep her place. I wonder... . Mayuyu seems strong, but not enough.

And... there is a chance that Yuuko might get into the Elections... like a graduated member if not as an AKB48 member. I wonder if Acchan will get in. Or Yuukachan. I'd love that.

 

I want UMECHAN in SENBATSU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ares13]

LOL .. I was just talking to my friend about this .. I didn't know a thread has started on this already ..

The only thing I wonder is if Yuko is going to run for it .. and will Acchan run for it ..
It would be interesting to see a Acchan vs Yuko match up again ..
and it will make the old fans scramble ..and it should be good for business ..

Anyway .. for me ..voting is automatic .. it will always be everything on Aamin unless she don't run for it then it get interesting for me .. LOL

I dunno how to predict the result ..
But I do see the sister groups taking a even bigger share away from AKB48 ..

structure wise ..
I hope for a 5th 16member tier and they make it top 80 ..

for my fanboying ..
Today at her Birthday show Meru say she want to be in undergirls .. I say no .. she should be in senbatsu ... LOL

[Tsurugi_Ken]

If Miyazawa really wants to focus on SNH48, then she won't enter this year's elections and instead focus more on learning the language over there and doing as much as she can to bond with the members, much like Nakagawa did last year for JKT48. Otherwise she'll be going back on her own words.

 

Nakagawa set a high standard as to how one should act should they be sent to a foreign sister group, and if Miyazawa, who has ranked so much higher and done so much more on-screen than Nakagawa has doesn't follow a similar pattern, then her declaration of wanting to concentrate solely on SNH last year would sound like a lie to the eyes of a number of her own fans. Instead of focusing on "foreign events" she should focus more on what's happening "back at home", should I say.

 

It's not that I don't like her or anything, but Miyazawa constantly showing up in AKB media appearances for the rest of 2013 after she made such a bold declaration in the elections really made her words sound empty to me.

 

As for graduated members participating, I'm sure the girls themselves noticed how hard it is to get votes after they've been graduated for some time. They wouldn't want to go back in there and just find themselves disappointed when they learn that a portion of their fans moved on. The ones that are desperate enough to do this will do so, but I don't see them making much of a dent similar to last year.

 

I also don't think Oshima will announce candidacy this year, unless she wants to risk losing again to Sashihara, and also unless she wants to really delay her graduation, which won't do her much favors much like it did Itano. Plus the whole point of her deciding to graduate was to make room for the new generation, to open a new chapter in the AKB48 history books. If she delayed her graduation, she's only really going to hurt opportunities for the newer generation, which is what she shouldn't be doing.

 

Takahashi Minami's actually also likely to graduate this year, but I'm not really sure when. If she decides to not participate in the elections this year and just focuses on strengthening the group before she leaves, as well as focusing much more on her solo career, then that would be very good for both her and the group altogether.

[Ares13]

Actually .. we still got a whole half a year .. so anything can happen ..
with the usual favorites should continue to do as well .. I do not see any huge movement ..
however for the lower position .. there may just be a couple of members that peak at the right time ..

Anyway .. I also do not see Yuko and Sae running too ..
furthermore .. if all the former greats .. like Tomochin, Kasai, Mariko ..
and all the doubtful greats like Yuko, Sae and even Kojiharu .. do not run ...
Then we are in for a huge shuffle ...

For me .. even with that .. I feel that the top few places are still very predictable ..
but what I am very interested about is the lower 70% of the ranking .. there should be many surprises ..

[drahzaar]

Nothing too crazy...

 

16. Kizaki Yuria (SKE48 Team S ) 30,307
15. Kawaei Rina (AKB48 Team A ) 26,764
14. Shibata Aya (SKE48 Team KII ) 39,739
13. Suda Akari (SKE48 Team KII ) 43,252
12. Watanabe Miyuki (NMB48 Team N ) 44,116
11. Yokoyama Yui (AKB48 Team A ) 53,903
10. Yamamoto Sayaka (NMB48 Team N ) 51,793
9. Shimazaki Haruka (AKB48 Team B ) 57,275
8. Miyazawa Sae (SNH48 ) 65,867
7. Takahashi Minami (AKB48 Team A ) 68,681
6. Kojima Haruna (AKB48 Team B ) 67,424
5. Matsui Rena (SKE48 Team S ) 73,173
4. Matsui Jurina (SKE48 Team S ) 77,170
3. Kashiwagi Yuki (AKB48 Team B )　96,905
2. Watanabe Mayu (AKB48 Team A ) 101,210
1. Sashihara Rino (HKT48 Team H ) 150,570

 

As far as the other groups go, it's not a lot to predict.  Random girls with all the pushed team 4 and sister girls sprinkled around.

[Krusha]

I haven't made any predictions yet, but I think it will be very interesting to see if Daasuu and Ayachan can keep their positions or even improve upon them. If they can it shows that they have massive support, but if not, it's more likely that last years occurance was a random happening. Also I do hope to see Ricchan make it to Senbatsu, although this is always very difficult to achieve. And Sae should absolutely not be participating. If she does, she's full of hot air (and yes I am thinking about her sour speech after last years event).

[drahzaar]

I really don't think sae will participate actually.  Also, if girls like takamina or kojiharu opted out, we could be really close to "ske48 with sister groups" 

[Ares13]

Ok .. I will try my hand at prediction even though I suck at it and look at things pretty one sided..
My prediction is base on an idealistic view of fans getting ready for war with lots of loyalty, valour, honour, strategies, purpose ..
But as I said its still long time to go, fans ain't all like that and things don't always go that way ..

01: Watanabe Mayu
I think this result has been pending for way too long, her fans are sick and tired of losing. She is not getting the center she supposed to get, her sub-units are all closed down, her solo career is hanging..I think her fans will do a final do or die and annihilate the competition..
02: Kojima Haruna
She had said she is going to graduate by this year.. I think the fans should gather up and really do it for her especially it may be the last time.. I think the fans will want to make sure at least she don't lost to Sasshi
03: Sashihara Rino
What happen last year was special.. But I do not think the fight can be sustain.. She is taking a step back.. And some fans will move on..
04: Matsui Jurina
It’s her time.. I see her as the only one that can rise under no special circumstances..
05: Kashiwagi Yuki
Basically.. she seem to be falling off the radar .. But her army of fans can be trusted and so she should be still in the top few but not really going for the kill..
06: Yamamoto Sayaka
The rise of NMB48 should really carry her further up..
07: Matsui Rena
She may look to be taking a step back but I do not think her fans are going to rest..
08: Yokoyama Yui
I think she will raise as she have grown from last year, and now she represented a lot more than before ..
09: Watanabe Miyuki
This is the most terrible result I can think of for her.. I would suspect that she would get less vote as part of her fighting fans would dilute to concentrate on the fight for the top few position..
10: Takahashi Minami
I think she should slip down a bit as I think people will just take it for granted about her.. She is already at the max potential so I should see her fans just doing the normal thing..
11: Shimazaki Haruka
She will always be strong, her fan base are like her.. Quiet but will really strike with heavy blow when it matters in voting..
12: Kawaei Rina
I think this year is the year where she would close the gap and advance into solid senbatsu position..
13: The 3rd hottest SKE48 girl.. LOL
This one I am not sure who it is but SKE48 fans would gather behind this person ..
14: Minegishi Minami
She should make a comeback.. Now she is in a stronger position and all will be forgotten and forgiven..
15: Miyawaki Sakura
She is stronger than most people think.. I think it’s about time as HKT48 continue to move forward and I would think fans will back her as they would want another person from HKT48 to be in senbatsu
16: The 3rd hottest NMB48 girl .. LOL
This one I am also not sure who it is but I think NMB48 fans would learn from SKE48 last year and sneak a 3rd member into senbatsu

[MocchiMooch]

I'm mostly just hoping for a Mayu center...also hoping that Sasshi IS NOT center again. I think she's so incredibly boring to my personal tastes, and even though I'm not the hugest Mayu fan, I think she's deserves a GOOD single to be center on. So Long was crap, so it made me sad. I mean, Mayu has had a great solo career, she's adorable, and her dancing has really improved to my eyes. I'd really enjoy a center position for her.

 

Having Takamina center would be AMAZING too, actually.

 

As for the other members, I REALLY REALLY REALLY want Iriyama Anna to rank in this senbatsu. She's been pretty apparent in the general line-up here lately, so I want her to be pushed since she's the new crop.

 

Mii-chan had better be in this one. The scandal thing has been way too overblown, and it's long over now, so I hope her fans pull through and get her in the senbatsu.

 

Kawaei would make a nice senbatsu member as well, so I'm hoping this happens. She seems to be rising in popularity like Anna, in forming the new crop of AKB.

 

I know it would never happen, but I really wish the SKE/NMB/HKT participation would be limited to Matsui(2), Sayanee, Miyuki, Sasshi, and Haruppi. I wouldn't mind Haruppi being in the senbatsu, so that'd be nice. 

 

I'm not one of those people that hopes for a strictly AKB senbatsu, because AKB isn't AKB these days without Jurina and Sayanee....but six is enough for the sister groups.

 

I'd need a shooting star to make my dream of Mocchi being in the senbatsu to come true...so it's not even really "hope" to me, since I know it won't happen

 

As for predictions, I don't think Yuko or Sae will participate. I really hope Yuko DOESN'T, because AKB needs to get a bit more establishment past the older era..and as much as I love Sae, I don't think she's interested in anything besides SNH.

 

I don't have much interest in seeing Suda Akari or Yokoyama Yui in the senbatsu...they've NEVER caught me eye, unfortunately. 

 

ANd more than anything, I'll be INCREDIBLY satisfied if Anna, Kawaei, Mii-chan, Umeda, and Haruppi make it. I think I can count on two to three of those becoming reality.

 

I think it's really hard to predict...especially considering we've lost Tomomi, Mariko, Atsuko, Yuko (soon enough), and possible Sae. So we can't really judge much of anything from the last senbatsu.

[☆RisaReinaSayu☆]

^You mean you want Iriyama to rank up to Senbatsu in this election. She ranked #30 last year.

[MocchiMooch]

^ I wish I can't take my eyes off her, so it'd probably make my entire year to have her in a senbatsu. But I might need another shooting star besides my Mocchi star, for that.

 

But who knows. I mean, she was in Eleki, Mosh & Drive, Party is Over, etc.... Surely, she's been gaining fans. And with Mariko, Tomomi, and possibly Yuko/Sae out of the picture, there'd be some interest open spots. 

 

I dunno...it's unlikely, but it'd still be wonderful 

[miiichan]

I don't care about the other rankings, I just want Murashige to rank!!

 

I hope for Murashige to rank in Future Girls. I think Oba and Miorin will have their ranks increase. I want Annin to have her ranks increase but I'm scared she won't. Top 3 should probably be Mayu, Sashi, Yukirin. I also hope for Paruru to rank up to Kami 7 just to piss some of her haters .