134 replies to this topic

[minaeshi]

^I think it's more like a "right" to own or something like that. Like, with Maeda, she was the center all the time, and it payed off because she came 1st in the elections twice. Everyone expected Mayu to start getting #1 position from 2012 on-wards but It hasn't happened yet. Saying this, I think it's more of a If Mayu can't take #1 position then can she really become the new ace/center of AKB? The push mgmt gave her didn't really set her flying to the top. If she can get #1 this year, they will definitely go on with keeping Mayu at center position. 

 

Outside of oshiness for me, I do think that this election will be the deciding factor though.

Mgmt have been pushing Mayuyu, Jurina and Paruru a lot since Maeda left to see who can fit in the position as the next main Center. Jurina will most likely become a "Yuko" where she is always at 2nd position because she is the center of her own group, SKE. Mayu and Paru however are two girls who management see potential Center's in, and I'm guessing that they were prepping up Paru while beginning to give Mayu the center position (mostly because she had more experience by years, and her higher rank, not just in SSK elections, but in general). Mayu hasn't been stepping up to the plate though, and missed #1 twice. I feel like if she doesn't get first place on this election, they might stop the push completely, leaving her like Yukirin, and then go onto pushing Paruru more for center. 

This is all just my opinion though lol 

[satchan]

I think, and people are free to disagree with me on this, but I think Mayu's character is limited. I don't think her character is one that can be truly "mainstream" in the same sense as Acchan, Yuko, or even Sasshi. She's obviously very well known and very well liked, but it feels to me like she has a real ceiling unlike girls that might have more electric personalities. I expect her to be #1 at some point, but it feels like she'll more help from girls around her leaving than anything, but maybe I'm wrong about that and she'll be first this year.

 

I also don't think the election has a major bearing as far as what kind of plans management has (they keep giving Renacchi chances after all ). They take note of certain trends, they've given more chances to Suda Akari than they have any other fringe senbatsu elected girl, but Sasshi and Yuko didn't get center spots after coming in first (Yuko obviously got more after Acchan left) and Jurina keeps getting center spots despite never finishing in the top five. Like, Sayaka could finish 42nd (not that she will or anything), and I would still expect her to get a huge push towards the front for the fall single (or win the janken tournament, but both are possible, I'm sure!).

[Ares13]

Its obvious that the election result has no bearing on the management plans because they said so themselves ..
This has ready been made know since Yuko got no.1 but was quickly move back after heavy rotation ...
I do think its fine .. that's what make senbatsu election special to me ..
the Janken tournament is determine by chance and the senbatsu election is determine by the fans ..
Its that moment when we the fans make the difference for our idol ..
Like Sasshi getting no.1 and a bunch of girls who got surprise .. the fans made the difference ..

I actually do not want the management base their decision to senbatsu election because it would influence the next year result and it will remove what is special about senbatsu election ..
For example ..if Sasshi win again ..it would be special because she don't usually get center for AKB48 singles ..
and if Mayuyu ..it will also be special .. you must wonder how is someone like Acchan who centered AKB48 for almost everything still wanted the senbatsu election center ..
This management placed centers can get a break or give someone a chance but they still want it .. like Janken single they are pretty laid back about losing the senbatsu ..
Its obvious its because senbatsu election single is special because it recognition from the fans
So it is 2 different thing senbatsu election and regular single management selection .. and its good to have it stay that way ..

[Krusha]

Yes, I agree. Her character is indeed limited. This is not to say that she's not a good enough idol or some such thing, she's great. For example she has now a co-host role in UTAGE and she does a great job there. But her character was firmly planted in more otaku-approved territory in the beginning than say Acchan's or Yuko's character. She has the flair of Yukirin's classic idol character, but she isn't really doing anything to get noticed enough by mainstream audience. With Sasshii, you have another girl who came from otaku land and appealed to otakus, and she was a fan favorite amongst the hardcore fans - but she managed to break out and appeal to many more people. She did this primarily because of being extremely good at variety television. This is something Sasshii is immensely better at than Mayuyu and I think this really helps her a lot.

 

Anyways, the election matters for some girls. Ranking well, or just ranking at all, helps keeping them in the spotlight, which for them is important. It also "justifies" their push in certain cases.

[gryzze]

I think in some cases the election does have some bearing on management's decisions. Before Sasshi won she was actually always in the back row of the line-up.

 

Suda Akari is another example because since last year she's appeared a lot in AKB's TV performances and I think Shibata Aya also got more opportunities in SKE.

[Ares13]

Well the manage can reserved the rights to follow the result..
Of course there will be case when management plan is the same as the result ..
For example Yuko winning in 2012 and she held center even after the election song.. which is obvious because there ain't any better idea.
And of course ..there will times when it just don't make sense not to follow the fans choice.. like Er.. Sakura getting a place in 2012 as the sole hkt48 winner.. she got push forward more because it don't make sense not to because a great story is already created without them doing anything..
But they can be inconsistent.. in 2012, all SKE48 member who got a place on the election became SKE48 senbatsu for the next single.. but it's not the case with 2013 .
So it's really up to the management choice..

[gryzze]

I agree with you. I just don't agree with the view by some people that the election has no bearing at all beyond this one single. I've seen a lot of comments like that on different forums.

 

I think power voting may play a part here. We can't know for sure who's been power voted or how much but I'm sure the management can since they have access to the IP addresses and other info of the voters.

[drahzaar]

I'm in the camp that doesn't think the election really impacts anything.  Over the years it has seemed more apparent that management chooses a girl's destiny when she first joins as a kks.  "Hmm now we have this one....I think we want her to be around this position or this role in X amount of years".  *STAMP* and on to the next one.  People will be like "OMG Renacchi didn't rank!  Her push is failed!!?"  Umm no, management will just keep on doing what they were doing anyway.  ( actually Karen is an example I keep forgetting).  No one is failing, they're just moving along.  Some more slowly.

 

Of course small things matter in senbatsu ( and I guess undergirls?) but I don't think front girls changing positions now and then is a big deal.  They're already front girls.  If someone like Shibata is pushed all the way up so she barely misses senbatsu then that should and did make a lasting impression.  However, I doubt a girl in AKB who gets power voted up that high would get the same treatment as someone in a sister group.  Sister groups have more room to move.  

[Ketchup]

Got my 4 CDs! 3 votes for Sakura-tan and 1 for Sasshi

[Juriken'14(狩)]

I think the 48G is using Totalitarian democracy  the management does push the girls they "like" blindly and ignore election results most of the time, but I do think the election does have "some" impacts to their decision making

 

the dilemma they are facing :

 

- they can't differentiate between wotas who powervote and general AKB fans

- listen to wotas who buy 1000+ or general fans who buy only a couple copies

- wotas with the possibility of oshihen or quit after Shukan Bunshun publish a rumor VS "casual" fans that don't really track rumors and don't really care

- how "valid" was the voting? How do they know it's not trolling?

 

 

 

about "Mayu deserves to be center"

 

I personally don't like this type of ideas, to me it sounds like just because "Mayu deserves to be center" and "it's not fair", we "need" to "pity" her and let her win

[Ares13]

Lol.. OK this is purely I think so I can't confirm it..
But I think they may know who are the power votes..
If they can detect the ip of the voters..
Furthermore.. some of the votes are from Mobile and FC subscription.. it's tag to their mobile so unless the 1 fan have many mobile which is extremely expensive.. and less possible. It's a more reliable data as it is more 1 vote for 1 fan and that 1 fan must be a fan and not a casual to subscribe to their mobile and FC services..

This is going by they have the data but the fact is.. it's a lot of data..

[gryzze]

Yes, I mentioned that before. Management have access to a lot of data that we don't.

[Ares13]

My final Prediction before we start ..

My guess for no.1 Jurina .. LOL
My hope will be that Jurina has finally gather up enough support .. support from the SKE48 fans alone is not enough .. she need the support from the whole 48G fans..
I think she may finally get it .. furthermore .. for this to happen .. I think Rena may drop a bit .. as some of her SKE48 fans may finally realize that they should not keep fighting among themselves and that they should try for the greater good ..
Anyway .. I love to have a new champ .. a new world order ..LOL ..
Furthermore ..she got an Aki-P prophecy to fulfill ..
Do you Believe? ..

[Kuleboy]

i want SKE or Jurina wins the sousenkyo senbatsu too !!!

I hope ske fans will  support her as no 1. Its hard if just Jurina fans to vote her

 

Ganbatte Jurina !! La   la   la   la 

 

But i hope churi dont drop below undergirl 

[neutrinoalpha]

And we have the result.
It's great some of my expectation in sousenkyo this year fulfilled.
Yukarun and Juri able to rank, Ricchan made it to senbatsu and on the top of that Mayu finally take the center position.
Surely this year will be awesome