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Love-ban Rule in AKB48 (Renai Kinshi)


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#1 Morning Death

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:27 AM

This thread is created with the purpose of providing a place were people can discuss the rule that forbids AKB48 and the sister groups' members from engaging in sentimental relationships as active members.
 
In this thread you can discuss things like the history of the rule and how it came to be, the instances and stories of members who have had a crash against said rule, and of course your general opinion on the subject. Whatever point related to the love-ban rule you can voice in this place. :)
 
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Disclaimer: The following text is my personal take on the rule and should be taken as my first contribution to this thread, this thread is not aimed at people reacting to my post. You are free to come here and speak your mind however you like without even reading my post, and I feel that that is what most people will do anyways so... XD I considered whether putting this in a separate post would be more appropriate but then by previous experience I was sure double posting would be edited and fused into a single post anyways so here I put it together in advance. XD
 
The moment I saw the peculiarities of the 2013's 32th single election I have been looking forward to seeing how things would play out in the final results, for reasons that went beyond the obvious interest of seeing how the dear members would end up ranking. The election presented very particular circumstances not seen in previous elections. The election presented for the first time optional participation for the AKB48 and sister groups members and also allowed participation from Graduated Members who have been in the group for more than 4 years, all through a new candidacy system which rested the members' participation solely on the shoulders of each member and their desire to participate in the election. Allowing the participation of graduated members gave way to a resigned member who was the subject of a scandal to submit herself to the will of fans (Hirajima Natsumi) and also allowed a married member to aim at entering AKB48 and once again become a member, in spite of her married status (Ohori Megumi).
 
Apart from the above peculiarities, this election had two AKB48/HKT48 members who were protagonists of two of the most well known and controversial scandals to have ever struck the AKB48 family. Sashihara Rino had an article by Shunkan Bunshun were an alleged old friend claimed to have had a sentimental relationship with the member in the past, where he had intimate relationships with her in her apartment and shared with the tabloid what he claimed were nude pictures of Sashihara, resulting in her move to HKT48. On the other hand, Minegishi Minami was also pointed out by Shunkan Bunshun as having stayed at the house of GENERATIONS' member Shirahama, resulting in Minegishi being demoted to Research Student status.
 
All the above members with their candidacy and participation in the election, either the ones that resigned, were moved to another sister group or were demoted, were bound to become the first real representation of fan feedback against or in favor of the love-ban rule and give a tangible idea of how fans stand when it comes to this love restriction rule.
 
So far what we have had to determine how breaking the love-ban rule affects members acceptance by fans has been nothing but conjecture and use of the sometimes unreliable common sense by people in discussions. Some people can bring up Kikuchi Ayaka and her scandal but when we talk about her we have a case of a popular, relatively new member who had a scandal early on in 2008 while the first election was held in 2009. A member for which we had no ranking number to determine a drop in support, a member that increased in popularity for reasons that could either be by fans letting her scandal behind or fans being completely indifferent to it, it could go to either side.
 
So how did the members who had scandals fare in the elections? Ohori Megumi did not rank, Hirajima Natsumi ranked in the 62nd position in Future Girls, Minegishi Minami ranked 18th position in Under Girls and Sashihara Rino won the election.
 
Individual analysis of votes:
 
Analyzing each member, one by one. Ohori Megumi's history in AKB48 ranking was only one during the 2009 election in which she ranked 24 with an amount of votes of 1,316. The lowest number of votes for the 2013 election was Nakanishi Yuka with 11,602 votes. We don't know if Ohori got less or more votes than what she originally earned during the 2009 election as an effect of her marital status. We don't know whether being married or not affected her original votes, we don't have information of the amount of votes she earned in this election. Even if she got less votes in this election, we could still consider other reasons for losing those votes like fans moving on to support other members after her graduation. It is a possibility.
 
Hirajima Natsumi ranked 62nd with an amount of votes of 11,806. Her previous vote count before the scandal was 9,742. Hirajima Natsumi actually increased the amount of votes she had from the previous election in spite of the scandal.
 
Minegishi Minami ranked 18th from a previous ranking of 14. She was the member whose scandal was not only the most recent, but the one that probably got the most buzz word and aggravating factors surrounding it as was the shaving of her head. In spite of ranking four positions bellow her previous ranking, Minegishi actually got more votes than what she did in the previous election. She previously ranked 18th position with 26,038 but in this election she received 38,985 votes from fans.
 
Sashiraha Rino got center position for AKB48. From 4th place, Sashihara went up to number one position by increasing her votes from 67,339 to a whopping number of 150,570... erm... more than what Maeda Atsuko ever received (139,892). She won the election regardless of her scandal and increased fan support to impressive extents.
 
It is also worth mentioning that Satou Amina and Kashiwagi Yuki both had articles written about them with alleged tidings to goukon escapades. Both of them got more votes compared to the previous election.
 
Conclusions:
 
It is hard to see any negative effect in the form of drop of votes for members who had some related story with breaking the love-ban rule. These results make you wonder how much of an impact, how much control fans with a stance against members having sentimental relationships can have in shaping said members careers, especially when we are talking about receiving less support than what members already got in the first place.
 
The notion that the hardcore wota are the ones that provide the most votes, the ones that have a stronger stance against the love-ban rule, and that they are the ones that can make a difference in the members career is in question here. It is impossible to rule out that there are hardocre wota, numerous hardcore wota that do not care for the love-ban rule and that provide strong support for the members. When we look at Sashihara's case, she possibly had the worst story when it comes to breaking the love-ban rule among the members mentioned here above, and still she soared to the top as if scandals were not an issue. There was also the example of that fan that racked an insane amount of votes for Sashihara, did he care for the scandal? Apparently not. Power-boosting members votes is not something exclusive to fans who support the love-ban rule apparently, unless you want to cling unto the argument that the votes of Sashiraha are the result of forgiving fans, which in itself is something to be argued and which I find highly unlikely.
 
Taking these results into consideration I think it is safe to say that there is no precedent of members receiving less support because of being related to a sentimental relationship scandal. There simply isn't any.
 
I guess it could be argued that the members who had a scandal didn't have much fans that supported this renai kinshi to begin with. There is no way that anyone could completely rule that out. But as things stand in this moment, it is safe to say that not all members need to rely on love-ban rule supporters to maintain and gain votes and that there is a future in the members career even if they get involved in a love scandals.
 
Hirajima, Sashihara and Minegishi have established a precedent that there is future in your idol career even if you get involved in a scandal.
 
 
Possible effects of these vote results in the future of AKB48:
 
 
Who knows? Maybe none.
 
1) Members
 
When it comes to members, I think that from now on if there are members who get involved in love scandals they will seriously consider staying in AKB48 and face the consequences of getting into these scandals, whatever those consequences may be at that moment. Possibly shy members will still decide to leave though, especially those that may be too shy to face situations from fans, media and anyone with questions and critiques to the whole situation.
 
2) Renai Kinshi supporters
 
When it comes to renai kinshi supporters, it begs to question how many of these fans really compose the AKB fanbase. Given the present results from the members related to scandals, it is possible that renai kinshi supporters may be a minority, who knows? Even if you consider that the number of votes these members got in this election were the result of loyal fans going into extreme extents to support these girls in "danger", isn't this what it is all about? Love-ban supporters having the means to boost members? Seems like fans who are indifferent to scandals have demonstrated that they do boost members with votes, unlike love-ban rule supporters which have not demonstrated their reach, if any, by getting members related to scandals to drop in votes by stopping their support, up until this moment. There are only precedents of members keeping and getting more votes in spite of scandals.
 
3) Akimoto & Co. (Management)
 
What will management do if they take into consideration these vote results? Maybe nothing. If the horse is walking properly, don't cut one of its legs.
 
There are fans over the Internet that call the love-ban rule antiquated, discriminating against women, unnecessary, etc. I don't think these fans concerns will be something management feels that needs to address and resolve, even if management fall into the conclusion that the fans who support renai kinshi are a minority. Even if management doesn't drop the love-ban rule, the fans who are against it won't go away. Even if the fans that support the love-ban rule are actually a minority they are fans nonetheless, they are sells, nonetheless, and I doubt management feels any need to completely alienate and make them disappear.
 
It would be a little far-fetched if someone believes that management will one day come forth and say: "From now on we won't restrict members from having boyfriends, members can have boyfriends, it is ok!". AKB48 and their approach seems to be one of inclusion, not of exclusion, especially to go and do such open demonstrations of disregard for some fans, even if they are a little number compared to the majority. Management will only drop the love-ban rule when the benefits of taking such decision outweigh considerable and permanently the disadvantages of not doing it, and when they can't approach said advantages by circumventing the love-ban rule problem with other measures, such as demotion and group transfer.  
 
Even if you consider her an exception to all rules, Sashihara demonstrated that there are ways to reach the top even when getting involved in a scandal. Sashihara is the "hen of golden eggs" for management right now. Management will be looking for the next precious member, whoever she may be, with whatever means she may have to her disposal to gain the group more popularity and sells, like Sashihara has done. If such a member gets into a scandal management is sure to protect her but if renai kinshi is in effect, is there a need to fire her? No, management can demote her and see how it plays out, it is all a matter of observation without management getting compromised heavily, apart from fans calling out double standards, thing that doesn't seem to cause much effect on anything really.
 
Excluding fans is not only not necessary but counterproductive.
 
Now, management have successfully put AKB48 into the spotlight, they have made the group something that goes beyond the music itself. Yesterday, as I watched the sousenkyo, I couldn't help comparing that event to a some sort of national beauty pageant. AKB48 seems to have become something bigger than anything else achieved in the idol world, the previous seems like an understatement, I know. lol It feels like AKB48 at this stage could do without the love-ban rule, I find that very likely. I just feel it isn't necessary to exclude fans at this moment just to please the desire of fans who wouldn't stop supporting the group even if said desires are not pleased.
 
I once said these words and I still stand by them: to be an idol is to embrace the love-ban rule. However, this doesn't mean that AKB48 cannot be turned into something else besides an idol group. If management so desires they could make the group a hybrid, a group that contains both idols and artists, leaving to each member to decide what they want to be and see how each members' chances fare at the end.
 
This concept is not something far-fetched at all, just consider what management tried to do by allowing Ohori to participate even when she was married. I think the biggest issue of the love-ban rule for management - seeing how things played out for the members involved in scandals - is that they don't want members to engage in questionable behavior that could hurt the group image. A marriage is something outside of any moral objection and so maybe for said reason they allowed Ohori to participate. It is all about not having members with objectionable behavior within the group. Idols are like the epitome of the entertainment business idealization of how entertainers should function. Even if AKB48 drops the love-ban rule you can bet that there will be restrictions to what the members can and cannot do, the group is part of the entertainment industry in Japan after all. So if you consider that lifting the love-ban rule from AKB48 will be the first step into a free-for-all group that could lead AKB48 into being renamed Sodom&Gomorrah48, think again. Even if Ohori would have ranked, if she had gotten into something very objectionable like cheating her husband you could be sure she would be forced to resign. #YaguchiMari
 
But truth is, what makes the most sense for a member is to have the cleanest, less controversial career path, free of fan exclusion, by adhering to the idol ways. No matter the quantity, addition is always better than subtraction.
 
These are my two cents. Let it be noted that the above was written by someone who supports renai kinshi.
 
Anyways, the thread is yours.
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#2 kantutanTayo14

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 12:44 PM

Sashi's "scandal" was never proven true, nor has she ever admitted to it.

 

Hirajima, Sashihara and Minegishi have established a precedent that there is future in your idol career even if you get involved in a scandal.

Or it's one set of rules for those that are more senbatsu-ly popular that's different from another set of rules for the others.

Not all scandal-affected girls come out with a shining future or even unscathed one e.g. Yonezawa no longer has working ties/relations with Organization48



#3 Morning Death

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 01:37 PM

Sashi's "scandal" was never proven true, nor has she ever admitted to it.
 

Hirajima, Sashihara and Minegishi have established a precedent that there is future in your idol career even if you get involved in a scandal.

Or it's one set of rules for those that are more senbatsu-ly popular that's different from another set of rules for the others.
Not all scandal-affected girls come out with a shining future or even unscathed one e.g. Yonezawa no longer has working ties/relations with Organization48

 

I don't think I worded Sashihara's incident and said she actually did have a relationship with the guy. For all I know she could have or could have not done it. I don't recall any of the members coming forward and addressing the matter and saying "I did it". That is not something wise to do when you can manage to keep things as private as possible, or risk saying things that end up worsening the whole situation.

 

Of course when it comes to Yonezawa the scandal was the result of what people found from her, her own words, she saying things about wanting to have a sex partner and such things, if I don't remember incorrectly.

 

Up until now the punishments in the careers of the members that have been involved in a scandal have been either self-inflicted or the determination of management by forcing them to resign/firing them, not in the form of receiving less votes from fans. The points I raised here are directed towards fan feedback, related to the love-ban rule, not measures taken by management and members themselves. Like I said, the precedents of Minegishi and Sashihara could encourage members involved in a scandal to give it a shot at staying.

 

I think some fans approached Yonezawa and asked her if she was thinking about running once again, she said she didn't want to, I think. In the last election she participated before the scandal she didn't rank, I don't think she would even rank this time, a similar situation with Ohori and her low count of votes from fans. Even if she participates I fear we wouldn't even be able to tell if she lost votes or not.

 

There is a possibility that there would be members affected by fans that do support renai kinshi. One of those fans that throws thousands of votes single-handedly for a single member could make the difference, as would several fans doing the same for a single member. But so far none of the members involved in scandals have lost votes. There is no precedent of members losing votes because of a scandal.

 

If you are trying to bring the point when mentioning Sashihara that she may have not lost votes because the possible fans that support her and wouldn't want Sashihara in a sentimental relationship didn't believe in the veracity of the scandal, that is a valid point and a possibility.


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#4 Blu-Cherri

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 01:58 PM

I think the loveban rule helps prevent a lot of messy situations and girls are generally received back based on how they react to the scandal and their work ethic after going back.

Sasshii put her everything into hkt48 and I think that is admirable. 

 

Miichan's drop would be because her reaction caused some negative backlash(increased votes can be somewhat discounted due to the cheaper and already bought en masse theatre edition counting). It might also be fans thinking she might have been humbled by the event and might change some of her poor attitudes. 

If Yonezawa had run I could 99% guarantee she wouldn't rank due to what was readily readable in her blog, she wrote in such a way that fans were unlikely to forgive.

 

 

 

 there is no precedent of members receiving less support because of being related to a sentimental relationship scandal.

Ayarin was during a time when akb fans were pretty much only hardcore wotas and she has suffered. She was put higher than Yukirin by management. YUKIRIN! and fans were accepting of her. She then comes back after many changes and has basically started again fan wise, hence she's faced a drop that probably wouldn't happen as much today so long as she reacted well.

 

edit: I forgot to add that it also probably depends on the type of girl that a scandal happens to. A scandal would probably ruin Mayuyu, for example. 


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#5 Morning Death

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 02:54 PM

I think the loveban rule helps prevent a lot of messy situations and girls are generally received back based on how they react to the scandal and their work ethic after going back.

Sasshii put her everything into hkt48 and I think that is admirable. 

 

Miichan's drop would be because her reaction caused some negative backlash(increased votes can be somewhat discounted due to the cheaper and already bought en masse theatre edition counting). It might also be fans thinking she might have been humbled by the event and might change some of her poor attitudes. 

If Yonezawa had run I could 99% guarantee she wouldn't rank due to what was readily readable in her blog, she wrote in such a way that fans were unlikely to forgive.

 

 

 

 there is no precedent of members receiving less support because of being related to a sentimental relationship scandal.

Ayarin was during a time when akb fans were pretty much only hardcore wotas and she has suffered. She was put higher than Yukirin by management. YUKIRIN! and fans were accepting of her. She then comes back after many changes and has basically started again fan wise, hence she's faced a drop that probably wouldn't happen as much today so long as she reacted well.

 

edit: I forgot to add that it also probably depends on the type of girl that a scandal happens to. A scandal would probably ruin Mayuyu, for example. 

 

That is a good point. If management keeps enforcing this rule it keeps members at bay and keeps them from getting into "messy situations". Even members that dare break the rule are forced to do so in a discreet manner, they are driven to learn discretion.

 

Minegishi dropped in rank because of the members that got more votes than her and thus passed her in ranking and also by the amount of votes thrown into this election. But as I wrote there above she didn't lose votes, but increased. The reasons for which she may have increased in votes are speculative, so are the reasons why she didn't climb ranks like other members did. There is the fact that some members get into what seems to be an stagnant position were it is hard for them to capture any more significant number of votes, that possibility can't be ruled out as well. 

 

What is in question here is how fans who support renai kinshi don't seem to have the power to lower the votes of the members, at least the ones that have been mentioned in here with their respective scandals. If members' votes did drop but at the same time those votes were replaced by other votes that actually even resulted in members increasing their previous vote count, then there it is, the power of the renai kinshi supporters is in question.

 

About Ayarin: management push doesn't equal reality of support from fans, at least not necessarily, although it can help definitely. If that would be the case, Paruru would have ranked above Rena, Yukirin, and Yuko given the push she received these past year. She did increase her ranking a lot of course. I don't know how you measured Kikuchi's popularity, but it seems to me like some sort of past perception of popularity. In reality there never was a way to measure fan support for Kikuchi, unless you are taking into account some information I don't have, something like handshake popularity or something. But I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't something measurable. 

 

If a scandal hits a member that relied heavily in votes from several fans that don't want this rule to be broken then that member definitely would drop. I don't know about Mayuyu. I don't think we can be sure about what is behind Mayuyu's votes. Kashiwagi Yuki's image as idol is relatively comparable to Mayuyu's as she always tried to maintain that pure image of proper idol, but then Yukirin also has that more gravure side to her whereas Mayuyu is more of the cute and innocent variety. Yukirin had this scandal related to her and, unless it was dismissed by all of her fans as false, she didn't drop in votes.

 

I think the results this election leave a message, renai kinshi supporters are either few, way forgiving or really skeptical. And they don't seem to be the core of the votes of all the members.
 


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#6 Blu-Cherri

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 03:07 PM

Ayarin was very popular(Within Team B, definitely above Yukirin before B3), a large petition was gathered for her to be allowed to stay when they fired her.

 

Mayuyu promotes the image that she prefers anime guys to real guys. Yukirin has been proven in public to have a dark side to her that isn't what she tries to promote.

 

And I don't think you realise how many theatre editions are sold for each single 

http://melosnomichi....week-sales.html

has an example of it. It's s large number and the theatre editions are a lot cheaper so people can buy more extra copies of those than the regular ones. 


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#7 Morning Death

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 03:45 PM

Ayarin was very popular(Within Team B, definitely above Yukirin before B3), a large petition was gathered for her to be allowed to stay when they fired her.

 

Mayuyu promotes the image that she prefers anime guys to real guys. Yukirin has been proven in public to have a dark side to her that isn't what she tries to promote.

 

And I don't think you realise how many theatre editions are sold for each single 

http://melosnomichi....week-sales.html

has an example of it. It's s large number and the theatre editions are a lot cheaper so people can buy more extra copies of those than the regular ones. 

 

I read that she was popular before the scandal, but I am talking about measuring her popularity as to identify a drop in fan support as you pointed out in your first post. There is no way to identify a drop of support in Ayarin's case because there is no way to measure her popularity and how it was affected by her scandal. You mentioned the petition to allow her to stay in Team B in spite of her scandal, if anything that helps to cement the notion that there was support for her even with the scandal.

 

This election served to encourage thought and give space for reflection and not to take things for granted because of common sense. The fact is that we can't tell for sure what is behind each member in terms of support. The only precedents are that members have not dropped in votes even with scandals. There is no telling how much a scandal could affect Mayuyu. Mayuyu seems to be popular with girls and little girls as well. Everything is just guesses and conjectures.

 

When I talked about Minegishi and her increase in votes and the speculative nature behind the reasons for this I wasn't talking about the methods with which fans who supported her achieved this. If a renai kinshi fan wants to vote some member up that fan as well can rely in Theater Editions of CDs, if Minegishi's fans who wanted to support her in spite of the scandal relied on Theater Editions as well doesn't make much of a difference. The point is that, what ever effect, if any, renai kinshi supporters could have had in affecting Minegishi's position in the election by abandoning ship was nullified and even improved by the fans that wanted to support her in spite of the scandal. The effect of the possible fans that left was mute compared to the effect of fans that did support her, if there were a great number of fans that left or any key power-boosting voters that left to begin with. 


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#8 Blu-Cherri

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 04:41 PM

Everything you've written is a guess and conjecture too, your ideas don't have any more credibility than anyone elses so if that's your argument against my points then there is nothing more to say on the subject. There is nothing anyone here can say that isn't speculation, guessing or conjecture.

 

 

edit: to explain, you're arguing that because some girls managed to win their fans back over that the love-ban rule has zero purpose of existing and should be abolished and will have little to no negative side effects, correct?


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#9 HappySensation

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Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:47 PM

^

I dunno about that, considering Morning Death argued very strongly for the love ban rule with me before, though perhaps there's been a change of opinion/playing Devil's Advocate :lol: Not getting at you btw MD. 

 

I imagine Sasshi's scandal was not as severely punished because the details of it came to light some time after it ended if I remember right. The timing and severity of the scandal is pretty important. With the right attitude anyone can come back from a scandal imo, if they really want to be an idol. Some girls that have graduated might have decided that being an idol isn't for them and it's just unfortunate they go out on a bad note. I feel like the amount of difficulty and trouble the girls who stay go through is enough of a deterrent to most of the other girls though. 

 

In the end it comes down to character. The girls still in AKB who have been affected by scandals have all worked hard to be where they are and some girls will naturally draw fans to them regardless. There's pretty much a "two strikes and you're out" system where you can work hard if you don't get immediately fired for any number of reasons (popularity, presence, scandal details) and work your way back, but I don't think any of these girls are under the impression they could get away with it a second time. Honestly this is preferable to H!Ps system for me, where there is really no chance for demotion or transfer and you can't really redeem yourself. One of the benefits of having a large group really!


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#10 Krusha

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 12:22 AM

Well, again Ayarin (3rd gen) is a perfect example.

 

This is a girl that was Akimoto's choice for senbatsu, and was groomed for the position. When Akimoto says "This girl will be in senbatsu", you know she will be, and she will be popular as well. Ayarin was popular. Really popular... 

 

But she had a scandal (a purikura surfaced), and whether this picture was taken before AKB or during, I cannot actually remember. But she was fired, and that was it. Except she re-auditioned, and got in. Now as a 7th gen kenkyuusei, she had to do everything they did, and she did. But she had lost everything she had before. She had lost her momentum, she had lost her massive popularity, she had lost her senbatsu status, she had lost pretty much everything, except that she now was back in the group again. She still performed in the theater, and eventually went through kenkyuusei selection, which she survived. Then she got to be with AKB48 to Paris, France, as a kenkyuusei, which was a great sign of trust and achievement considering earlier scandal. 

 

So, "come back" perhaps, but to earlier position and popularity? This is very hard. Ayarin kept at it, and eventually she got promoted. Now and then she's been appearing on TV, and things have gone very, very slowly. She's ranked as #51 now twice in a row, last year being incredibly happy over her position, this year seemingly more disappointed (as I think she would've loved to go higher up). 

 

However, she was in senbatsu, and she did a CM with Paruru recently, so it does seem as if she's getting more attention, but Manatsu no Sounds good! and Sayonara Crawl are non-standard singles in my opinion since they have so many members. 

 

When she returns back to 16 member senbatsu, that's when I'll be impressed - especially now since there's girls from all 3 sister groups as well, which while entertaining, makes making senbatsu for an AKB48 girl so much more impossibly hard, than it is for an SKE48, NMB48 or HKT48 girl, who also has AKB48 as opportunity.

 

But like you say, even if I pointed out how hard it can be, it's still possible. And as a whole the 48G philosophy / system is really preferrable in more ways than just one. It is more dynamic, and nobody can feel "safe" about anything.

 

At any rate, the love-ban rule is important to have considering they're idols, I think. It works for them. It would be weird if it was put on artists. They function differently.



#11 Morning Death

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 04:33 AM

Everything you've written is a guess and conjecture too, your ideas don't have any more credibility than anyone elses so if that's your argument against my points then there is nothing more to say on the subject. There is nothing anyone here can say that isn't speculation, guessing or conjecture.

 

 

edit: to explain, you're arguing that because some girls managed to win their fans back over that the love-ban rule has zero purpose of existing and should be abolished and will have little to no negative side effects, correct?

 

Well there is definitely speculation when it comes to this topic. I don't think speculating is something pointless, I mean, for example some people had a lot of fun trying to predict who would win which position in the elections, people seem to get a lot of fun out of speculation. XD This topic offers itself for a lot of speculation and guesses, I think that serves a purpose and provides for a good exercise to open oneself to different possibilities and stay open to many ideas. I believe when one can't be certain about something, the best is to consider all the possibilities and try to circle the matter by understanding and acknowledging the different reasons that could explain that which remains unknown. I think this provides for responsible thinking. 

 

Re-reading what I wrote after calling it a day, I think what I wrote could have been passed as me ditching completely the possibility that Kikuchi dropped in popularity due to the scandal. That was not my intention if anyone got it that way. I was reacting to the way you posted that she dropped in fan support, I don't think anyone can take that for granted. If you would try to make a biography of Kikuchi and redact that she lost fans because of the scandal and then footnote as reference how you perceived that she was popular and that she "must" have been subject to losing fans, that wouldn't work, would it? No one can be certain of how her fans took it, no one can be certain how that perceived popularity could have ended being translated into actual votes if she had made it to the first election without a scandal. Hirajimas precedent gives way to thinking about a different scenario. If one says "she dropped in votes" such claim needs to be backed up by data that can be observed, not just by feelings, as such claim is to be taken as a response to some phenomena you observed, that was quantified and that can be observed and analyzed by anyone else and thus to be able to fall to the same conclusions.

 

I like a saying, I think it comes in handy a lot of times but here I will write against it: perception is not always reality. I know there are a lot of members out there that seem very popular but at the hour of racking votes they don't make it. Sometimes these members are the members everyone enjoys watching and having around, but when it comes to voting they are not the priority for some of those fans that tend to cheer them up. Maybe they are like number 3,4,5,6 in the fans' priority list when it comes to votes. We can't rule out Kikuchi being subject to this kind of popularity. I don't know about you, but there were a lot of members I could swear would rank in this election, but they didn't.

 

A lot of what I wrote could be taken as guess, but I don't think I expressed them as facts there. I think I may have written the words: "I feel", "I wouldn't be surprised", "I think it is very likely", etc. When I used those words I wanted to express possibility and how much expectancy I invest in those outcomes. But what I do put as a fact here is that there is no precedent of members losing votes for scandals, as that is something that can be analyzed, something for which there are numbers available for anyone to fall into the same conclusion.

 

edit: to explain, you're arguing that because some girls managed to win their fans back over that the love-ban rule has zero purpose of existing and should be abolished and will have little to no negative side effects, correct?

 

I don't think anyone can claim they lost them and then won them back. XD If that was the case, case no one can take for granted, if goes in line with what I wrote about renai kinshi supporters being forgiving:

 

I think the results this election leave a message, renai kinshi supporters are either few, way forgiving or really skeptical.

 

*I should add to the above sentence that they could be found supporting other members, that is a possibility as well.

 

Before the results of this election, I thought these members involved in scandals would drop hard, I thought that AKB48 would be left into pieces if the love-ban rule would be dissolved. I no longer feel that that is a unquestionable scenario to follow.

 

If the rule is put aside, I bet fans will leave the group behind. But how much are they? I don't know. They could be a minority for all we know. So far there has not been any indicator of how much a members rely in renai kinshi supporters, but these fans exist, no argument against that.

 

Again, like I said, I think what management could do is to keep things like they have done up until now. If the horse is walking properly, don't cut off one of it's legs. Taking unnecessary actions that get you to lose fans is not something very smart, and I doubt management will do it, unless, like I said, they find they will have more benefits when ditching the love-ban rule. At this moment, I can't think of any benefit in doing such a thing.

 

When I wrote that I thought AKB48 could live without this rule, I wasn't expressing my desire, far from it. Just expressing how it seems to me that there are a lot of fans out there not being affected by scandals and keeping their support for members in spite of those circumstances. Before this election I thought all members' votes would be nothing without the support of renai kinshi supporters, now I am not so sure.

 

What did I want for this election? I wanted all members related to scandals to drop enough as to give the clear message of not messing with this rule. That didn't happen. I am telling you, if Minegishi would have dropped in votes considerably like getting half of the votes compared to what she previously had, Sashihara lost some votes (I needed to be realistic, this girl was very popular and I accepted that before the last results lol) and Hirajima not ranking at all, there wouldn't be any person in this fandom that could argued against how the renai kinshi supporters have the AKB48 group held by the balls... hmm, yeah, held by the balls. But that didn't happen.

 

 

^

I dunno about that, considering Morning Death argued very strongly for the love ban rule with me before, though perhaps there's been a change of opinion/playing Devil's Advocate :lol: Not getting at you btw MD. 

 

I imagine Sasshi's scandal was not as severely punished because the details of it came to light some time after it ended if I remember right. The timing and severity of the scandal is pretty important. With the right attitude anyone can come back from a scandal imo, if they really want to be an idol. Some girls that have graduated might have decided that being an idol isn't for them and it's just unfortunate they go out on a bad note. I feel like the amount of difficulty and trouble the girls who stay go through is enough of a deterrent to most of the other girls though. 

 

In the end it comes down to character. The girls still in AKB who have been affected by scandals have all worked hard to be where they are and some girls will naturally draw fans to them regardless. There's pretty much a "two strikes and you're out" system where you can work hard if you don't get immediately fired for any number of reasons (popularity, presence, scandal details) and work your way back, but I don't think any of these girls are under the impression they could get away with it a second time. Honestly this is preferable to H!Ps system for me, where there is really no chance for demotion or transfer and you can't really redeem yourself. One of the benefits of having a large group really!

 

Well, it is a mix of both. XD But sometimes we need to leave our own interests behind and consider all sides and all possibilities. That is what I am trying to do here.

 

The way members approach their scandals once they break out could be very important. It would be a matter of whether how their approach to damage control is effective or not.

 

About recidivist members, it would bring negative reception from a lot of fans, it feels like it, doesn't it? I bet that there would even be fans disappointed at those members getting into trouble once again and would even question the seriousness and compromise of those members with the group. I think the backlash could go even further than fans who simply don't want the girls having relationships.

 

The measures taken by management against them are exactly that: measures taken by management. Like I said before, I feel like the harshest consequences from these scandals, the ones that can be observed and taken for granted, have been either inflicted by management or self-inflicted by the members themselves.

 

 

Well, again Ayarin (3rd gen) is a perfect example.

 

This is a girl that was Akimoto's choice for senbatsu, and was groomed for the position. When Akimoto says "This girl will be in senbatsu", you know she will be, and she will be popular as well. Ayarin was popular. Really popular... 

 

But she had a scandal (a purikura surfaced), and whether this picture was taken before AKB or during, I cannot actually remember. But she was fired, and that was it. Except she re-auditioned, and got in. Now as a 7th gen kenkyuusei, she had to do everything they did, and she did. But she had lost everything she had before. She had lost her momentum, she had lost her massive popularity, she had lost her senbatsu status, she had lost pretty much everything, except that she now was back in the group again. She still performed in the theater, and eventually went through kenkyuusei selection, which she survived. Then she got to be with AKB48 to Paris, France, as a kenkyuusei, which was a great sign of trust and achievement considering earlier scandal. 

 

So, "come back" perhaps, but to earlier position and popularity? This is very hard. Ayarin kept at it, and eventually she got promoted. Now and then she's been appearing on TV, and things have gone very, very slowly. She's ranked as #51 now twice in a row, last year being incredibly happy over her position, this year seemingly more disappointed (as I think she would've loved to go higher up). 

 

However, she was in senbatsu, and she did a CM with Paruru recently, so it does seem as if she's getting more attention, but Manatsu no Sounds good! and Sayonara Crawl are non-standard singles in my opinion since they have so many members. 

 

When she returns back to 16 member senbatsu, that's when I'll be impressed - especially now since there's girls from all 3 sister groups as well, which while entertaining, makes making senbatsu for an AKB48 girl so much more impossibly hard, than it is for an SKE48, NMB48 or HKT48 girl, who also has AKB48 as opportunity.

 

But like you say, even if I pointed out how hard it can be, it's still possible. And as a whole the 48G philosophy / system is really preferrable in more ways than just one. It is more dynamic, and nobody can feel "safe" about anything.

 

At any rate, the love-ban rule is important to have considering they're idols, I think. It works for them. It would be weird if it was put on artists. They function differently.

 

I get your point. The consequences of Kikuchi's scandal put a halt on her career and we can but wonder how much it could have taken off if the thing wouldn't have come forward. Maybe she would have reached some fans before they set eyes on other members. Maybe her push from management could have taken her farther. Her scandal could have certainly affected her career in terms of management expectancy and possible future reaches.

 

But yeah, whether she lost a considerable number of fans/future votes in the first election that is not something measurable. Then we have Hirajima which completely blew me away by how she retained and increased her votes with relatively no presence in stages and media (apart from the last minute interview and the documentary) and after the scandal. These member precedents urge us not to take things for granted indeed.


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#12 kantutanTayo14

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 09:21 AM

At any rate, the love-ban rule is important to have considering they're idols, I think. It works for them.

lmportant, really? l think it serves no purpose other than making girls into tabloid fodders.

 

How damaging is the violation of love-ban? Does it result in deaths of puppies/kittens/children? Or destruction of orphanages or endanged species? Or cause families injuries or economical ruin?

Does it even harm [insert girl's name]'s health like doing a speedball would?

 

A true scandal should be something as serious as Yaguchi Mari's adultery. A love-ban violation is more trivial than even illegally parking in a no-parking zone!



#13 Krusha

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 09:31 AM

Don't be silly now, everybody knows the difference between entertainment and serious issues, like pollution of the environment, world hunger, terrorism, rape, domestic violence, and what have you not. So bringing up these issues are just non-sequiturs.
 
I am however talking in the context of idols. What makes idols unique is the entire framework it is placed within. Likewise so the sub-cultural phenomena it arose from and represents. For a game of football (soccer) to remain football, it needs to be played a certain way, it needs to have a certain set of rules, all of these things makes up football. If you do it a completely different way, it's another sport entirely. 
 
If you want artists, that's great, but then you go to artists for that, not idols. For idols to truly be idols, they need to have many things in place first, the love-ban rule is just one of many. 
 
Context is key. A love-ban violation has zero bearing on illegal parkings in no-parking zones, but illegal parkings in no-parking zones have a bearing on the issues of parkings in specific zones, that's all. No need to mix up all of these things.

#14 Blu-Cherri

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 01:16 PM

Elections aren't actually a full measure of popularity, in fact no 1 method is a full quantifiable method of popularity it's not evidence like you can have with scientific theories. I think an emphasis on 'this is evidence' when discussing idols is very misleading.

I should have mentioned Amina by now. A girl without heavy wota support that acted badly around a scandal and dropped heavily. She wrote that she wasn't feeling well, but was actually out at a party with boys and then never really apologised for it. Her drop is HUGE.

 

My whole argument is it's not that scandal girls can be ok, it's that if they react well to it then it can be overcome it. The rule is important because fans would become tired of things happening constantly and I also don't really want to hear about it. I don't want to know who's dating various idols, if I wanted that I could just follow the stuff that happens in my own country and save a lot of money. I think many would agree with this, without the rule everything becomes messy, it's not just  the loveban rule it's being strict on obeying the law when it comes to alcohol and smoking too.


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#15 HappySensation

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 02:10 PM

Have there actually been any girls that have been hit twice by scandals? Either in the group or out?

Yeah Blu-Cherri I agree that its only if girls react well that they can come back, but its a pretty slow amd difficult process for most of them (like Ayarin). Was that the reason for Amina's large drop this year? Though she's Next Girls center now which is a pretty decent place to be :lol: I'm afraid I don't keep up with scandal news all that well so I have no idea when this happened

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#16 Krusha

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 02:32 PM

Amina and Chikarina were together in a karaoke bar with two guys, having fun. While at the place partying, Amina updates her G+, saying she cannot sleep, that she feels unwell etc. Fans gets worried, and asks if she's OK, etc. I don't remember if Chikarina also did something similar on G+ or not, but all of this was revealed to be a big fat lie, as tabloid releases photos of them with the boys before and after the party, thus revealing the entire timeline - when comparing with G+, it's rather obvious the girls lied.

#17 Morning Death

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 04:50 PM

Was that the reason for Amina's large drop this year?

 

If you look at the ranking it gives the impression that Amina dropped, right? Ranking 21 in the previous election and now 33. But if you go to the votes directly she got 17,009 votes in her previous election while now she increased to 19,569 votes. She actually improved the number of votes, like I said in the opening post.

 

We need to take into account that there were a lot of votes in this election, more than the previous, that there were a lot of splits in votes between members and that a lot of members got more votes than Amina. Doesn't mean Amina lost votes, she just didn't get to improve her votes enough to stop other members from passing her.

 

Look at it in this way, Amina is in a race, she advances a little but the finish line is pull forward even more so she is no longer closer to the finish line, in spite of advancing.
 


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#18 Krusha

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 05:05 PM

Yes indeed it looks like she got more votes, which she did - but everybody did, yet she dropped in position. So it's just due to using tickets in theater singles this year vs. not doing so the past year.

If last years election also had voting tickets in theater singles like this year, then it'd be fair to say that indeed Amina gained this year, but no - especially not since price of theater singles are cheaper. So it's easier to stack up on multiple votes this way vs. regular singles.

Here's the thing: I hope they use theater singles with tickets next year also. Then it will be much, much easier to compare. :)



#19 dev-null

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 10:30 PM

Well... but she was very lucky dropping down to a center spot. :)

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#20 Krusha

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Posted 10 June 2013 - 10:44 PM

Definitely, if you are to rank low somewhere, a center position is better than anything else.




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