964 replies to this topic

[goratnik]

Take a look here and here (HRP's post below linked), please. Conclusions: Haruka is far from being sure to be voted highest yet (NEW SHIP pushed her a bit on G+, but still only third now...), Yuko and Sakura are better bets. A threat might come even from KKS side - Sayaka might have pissed wotas pushing her as disagreement for not promoting her to team (just look, what a boost on G+ she got just after creation of H).

Maybe if she [Haruppi] is promoted really seriously with single, not thrown to background...

[Sloan]

with Acchan out ..where will the 100K+ votes going to go ...
May go their 2nd in line oshimen ... could be anyone ...

but i will doubt it will go to Yuko ..cos you can't possibility put it on someone you fought for years ..

I agree with this. Considering the rivalry between Acchan and Yuko over the past Senbatsu elections, I can't see people who have/had Acchan as their oshi turning right around and putting votes in for Yuko.

Honestly, with how many more people are voting each year, and the new availability of these votes with Acchan out of the picture, I don't see Yuko being #1. I predict some sort of potential upset.

[dev-null]

I think, that a large part of Acchan's votes were mainstream votes (those everyday kind of fans... not the hardcore crowd that would care much about such kind of strategical thinking). So if the face of the group is not available for voting anymore they might just vote for the next best choice which would be Yuko naturally.

Of course, personally I would wish the extra Acchan votes (assuming people will vote at all) will even out the field a bit to avoid those extreme gaps in votes between the front girls and the girls that follow.

[marikosuki]

I think, that a large part of Acchan's votes were mainstream votes (those everyday kind of fans... not the hardcore crowd that would care much about such kind of strategical thinking). So if the face of the group is not available for voting anymore they might just vote for the next best choice which would be Yuko naturally.

Of course, personally I would wish the extra Acchan votes (assuming people will vote at all) will even out the field a bit to avoid those extreme gaps in votes between the front girls and the girls that follow.

I agree completely.

I also think the whole "Acchan hater votes" was blown out of proportion, and aren't we selling hardcore Acchan wotas short by believing they actually hate Yuko? No doubt there are some, I'm just saying they won't be a significant factor. Things like this just make AKB look bad.

[hitoyou]

So if the face of the group is not available for voting anymore they might just vote for the next best choice which would be Yuko naturally.

This has been bugging me... Is Yuko really the natural choice for Acchan's mainstream fans? Why did they vote for Meada in the first place?
...Acchan and Yuko are quite different type of girls.

Acchan is the calm beauty vs Yuko who is a genki and "ugly/cute" type of girl. (...Ugly is wrong to use, I know, I find her very attractive but she is not a true mainstream beauty as Maeda.)
So, their natural choice of girl to vote for should be Kashiwagi or Shinoda and not Yuko... This may cause some trouble for Yuko as Kashiwagi/Shinoda gains lots of votes and Yuko's fans could feel that this election should be a piece of cake and save some money... The gap in votes last year was pretty big between 2nd and 3rd place but there are, possibly, many votes to be redistributed.

They could, of course, have other reasons to why they voted for Acchan, but... errr yeah just a thought.

[Nessy]

My most realistic and pragmatic desires involve Jurina going back up and Yui and Sasshii and Sayanee and Milky getting high ranks. But I feel like that's pretty much taken care of--those four have had a ton of promotion, and Jurina's hardcore fans are bound to try to recover her spot, after what happened last year. Additionally, Mayu making it into the top three would be nice. Not as sure that that will happen, but it's certainly not unrealistic. I just hate looking at her disappointed face every year! I love that she can't be satisfied easily. I also want a good spot for Amina, I loved her speech the best last year and she has a special place in my heart...

But as for me, I'm voting for my darling Miorin.

[dev-null]

So if the face of the group is not available for voting anymore they might just vote for the next best choice which would be Yuko naturally.

This has been bugging me... Is Yuko really the natural choice for Acchan's mainstream fans? Why did they vote for Meada in the first place?
...Acchan and Yuko are quite different type of girls.

Acchan is the calm beauty vs Yuko who is a genki and "ugly/cute" type of girl. (...Ugly is wrong to use, I know, I find her very attractive but she is not a true mainstream beauty as Maeda.)

Back when I started to become a fan of the whole 48 universe I also first learned about Acchan and then about Yuko before I gradually learned more about the other girls (I learned Reinyans name first though for some reason ) — this didn't had so much to do with the girl's type, but with their media presence.

Anyway... all this is just speculation anyway. Maybe there will be some surprises or there will be no surprises.


Personally I hope Sayanee gets into the Top 10 and as many other NMB48 girls get ranked as high as just possible. I'm extremely biased here of course. But then I probably will have no influence with that anyway as my vote goes to a girl who's probably unlikely to get ranked, but I don't mind about that at all. Even if she doesn't get ranked the internal ranking in the non-public ranks could potentially influence the management's decision who or who not to include into NMB48's next single's senbatsu. So I think it's important to give my vote to the right person!

[hitoyou]

^

Yes, it is only lovely speculation with all the... what if, why, possibilities, potential changes etc ...Almost as sweet as the end result.

[Sloan]

^

Yes, it is only lovely speculation with all the... what if, why, possibilities, potential changes etc ...Almost as sweet as the end result.

Definitely...talking about it like this is getting me even more hyped up for the actual event. Speculation ahoy!

[satchan]

Take a look here and here (HRP's post below linked), please. Conclusions...

Thanks for the information. It sure seems like HKT could have some interesting representation. I'll keep an eye on the numbers and quietly hold out hope for Uitan to make an appearance.

[marikosuki]

Acchan is the calm beauty vs Yuko who is a genki and "ugly/cute" type of girl. (...Ugly is wrong to use, I know, I find her very attractive but she is not a true mainstream beauty as Maeda.)

Haha, I think we all understand what you mean with Yuko. But I have to disagree with you that Acchan is a mainstream beauty, I think she looks more plain. Plain isn't the ideal word here, but I mean she doesn't have distinctive features. Yukirin isn't a mainstream beauty as well, but still definitely cute. I think Mariko and Mayuyu are the most mainstream lookers.

What's funny is how Acchan and Yuko are so popular and yet on opposite sides of the spectrum. Not just looks, but personality as well. Combined they would be the ultimate idol . They're essentially going to be lifelong rivals as Yuko will become a full-time actress once she graduates.

[Sloan]

One of the first things I looked into when getting into AKB (which has been a fairly recent thing for me, like the past 8 months or so...newbie fan here) was the top members/most liked members, just to get a feel for it. I immediately liked Acchan better than Yuko, but after more time getting to see them in different aspects of "idoldom" so to say, I am definitely a Yuko fan. Guess I'm going kinda off topic here. Long explanation short, I agree with what both of you are saying in a way. I just have to say that none of them look plain to me. Each girl has a unique charm to them, and that is what makes AKB great.

[LovelyPrincessP]

But as for me, I'm voting for my darling Miorin.

I'm one of those bad Tomochin fans last year that got too relaxed with Dear J being successful and her #4 rank + all the pushing, so I didn't feel like I needed to buy that really AWFUL single to vote. I honestly don't give a crap about this single either but I'm ordering as many copies as I can comfortably depart with my money for to rectify that mistake. Voting for Miorin too and I'll probably spare a couple of votes for my darling Miichan, lovely Shawako, and amazing Juri.

As for who will come out on top this year, I'll offer my 2 and a half cent Senbatsu prediction:

1. Yuko
2. Mariko
3. Yukirin
4. Mayu
5. Kojima
6. Tomochin
7. Sasshi
8. Takamina
9. Rena
10. Sae
11. Jurina
12. Kitarie
13. Yui
14. Akicha
15. Miichan
16. Chiyuu
17. Sayaka
18. Amina
19. Yuka
20. Mocchi
21. Churi

I base Kitarie's and Yui's positions on the latter's pushing and Not yet's popularity which could (and more than likely will) gain them more casual votes.

Jurina and Tomochin fans will be going all out (including me since I'm a fan of both) after what happened last year. Tomochin's new single will be coming out soon which she should still be promoting by the time the election rolls around so she'll be "fresh" in the casual's minds when they're wondering who to vote for. I'm also in the camp that thinks that she could be one of the girls that the Acchan voters go for.

Sasshi is having quite the year: a bestselling PB, a drama, and a solo debut. I had already figured she would be the dark horse that "surprises" everyone at Election this year and I can easily see her in Kami7. I have a feeling that pushing her single back to as close to election as possible wasn't just due to her illness but some strategic thinking on management's part as (like Tomochin) she will still be promoting it around election time.

Mariko already has a very powerful casual base and a strong wota base. The absence of Acchan + winning Janken + leading a single not too long ago which earned her even more attention could be what (FINALLY) helps her break Top 2.

Churi is a natural choice to enter senbatsu this year. DiVA is the least popular subunit so I can't imagine it's formation/activities have done too much to raise Umechan's popularity (just what I think, feel free to show me otherwise) but Churi has continued to be at the forefront of SKE (whose sales and popularity has risen since) and had the long awaited KII3 debut recently so I definitely see her coming ahead of Umechan this year. Can't count out Sayanee either though, I can easily see her entering senbatsu as well.

[Xīn Chūn (仮)]

^
One big flaw, top 21 is no longer the senbatsu. Apparently only top 16.

Yui would essentially have to double her votes to get to that position... Double, plus whatever the other girls end up adding from last year too. I know she'll rise from last year but I don't know if she can get THAT many votes... =/

Akicha was about 31,000 and Yui was around 16,000...

Of course there will be spikes in voting for some of the girls who got a push, but I don't think there will be any crazy overall spikes like the past 2 years where the overall vote was so much higher than the last.

I think the top 16 will probably have vote levels from around 25,000-30,000 to 140,000-160,000, give or take a bit. Higher than last year but not insanely so, as the past has been.

And if they can get over the 25k mark, they'll probably be in senbatsu.

[satchan]

I think Yui jumps about that much. I don't think she gets into the top 9 group this year, but 10-12 range seems really possible for her.

[chuxnon]

you know after seeing yui's push and sasshi's jump last year - i can see yui in top 12'ish.

[hitoyou]

But I have to disagree with you that Acchan is a mainstream beauty, I think she looks more plain. Plain isn't the ideal word here, but I mean she doesn't have distinctive features. Yukirin isn't a mainstream beauty as well, but still definitely cute. I think Mariko and Mayuyu are the most mainstream lookers.

Oh, but I have to strongly disagree with your disagreement Acchan is for sure a mainstream beauty! A part of being mainstream is to have as few of those distinctive features as possible that could annoy people. You may call it plain...ish, nothing wrong with that, as long as it works for a wide range of different people, not necessarily wow every single one of them. How strong facial features you can have or how plain your looks may be before you disqualify yourself from the mainstream group not an easy one.
Now, who is the most mainstream looking member... that is a tricky one for sure ...and maybe I have to agree with you that Yukirin may not be a mainstream beauty... however, I find her extremely beautiful

[Xīn Chūn (仮)]

I don't really think any of them are mainstream-beautiful... >.< And somehow, especially NOT Mariko and Mayuyu... I dunno, that's just how I see it. =P

Doesn't mean I like them less of course, just an observation.

[marikosuki]

It seems we need to come to an understanding of what mainstream beauty is. Perhaps people can cite some examples? Let's stick to Japanese celebrities.

Horikita Maki?
Ishihara Satomi?
Fukada Kyoko?

Before this thread gets out of hand, I'll end this by asking how much of a factor will the hometown votes be (Nagoya fans for SKE, Osaka for NMB, and Fukuoka for HKT)? There's no way any girls from these sister groups can attain 100,00 votes, right?

Edit: BTW although I might call members non-mainstream beauties, it doesn't mean I don't find them attractive.

[Erin.]

...we gotta remember that part of the point of AKB was to take regular looking girls and watch as they work hard and transform into idols. Acchan and Takamina were, at the beginning, quite plain looking. I still laugh whenever I see Acchan in Skirt Hirari 'cause there's such a difference from now. I think Acchan has become the mainstream beauty. (Mariko, although clearly beautiful, isn't mainstream because of her nose. I've read that people sometimes make fun of her nose.)

^ On your topic, it's hard to say. Some people may support SKE or NMB or HKT because they are from the same town/prefecture, but AKB is still the more popular/better know group, and will probably get the bulk of the votes. I mean, you have to pay to vote, so you are likely gonna vote for a member that you like, rather than one from your hometown. Maybe it depends on how patriotic about their towns people are. It'd be interesting if there was some sort of rally in Nagoya or Osaka to get a certain member into senbatsu, like pushing the citizens to buy the single and support whomever. Like a mass of organized voters.