964 replies to this topic

[droopy10]

Thought I'd start this thread since the AKB48 thread is blown up with prediction and such.

Will be back later with my own hopes and prediction.

Sorry guys started this thread right before I went sleep and just finished work now.



Per Krusha's post below.


How to vote:

- Buy 26th single "Manatsu no Sounds good!" (it comes in Limited A, Limited B, Regular A, Regular B and Theater version) [Note: Limited versions sold out everywhere except YesAsia]

Other ways to vote:

- By being a:

Member of the Official AKB48 Fan Club
Member of the Official AKB48 Mobile Fan Club
Member of the Official AKB48 Smartphone App
Subscriber of AKB48 Live On Demand monthly plan
Member of AKB Official Net
Member of SKE48 Mobile
Subscriber of SKE48 Live On Demand monthly plan
Member of NMB48 Mobile

One can vote for members of: AKB48, SKE48, NMB48, and HKT48. This also includes kenkyuusei members. 240 members in total. Maeda Atsuko will not participate in election, as she will graduate the group.

Voting period starts: 2012.05.22

Voting period ends: 2012.06.05, 14:59:59 Japanese Time.

In other words 2 weeks.

Results of Senbatsu Election will be for 27th Single, expected to be released in August.

Positions from voting will be split into 4 groups:

01-16 - Senbatsu Members
17-32 - Group A
33-48 - Group B
49-64 - Group C


And for reference, last year's results:
Media Senbatsu

01 Maeda Atsuko 139892
02 Oshima Yuko 122843
03 Kashiwagi Yuki 74252
04 Shinoda Mariko 60539
05 Watanabe Mayu 59118
06 Kojima Haruna 52920
07 Takahashi Minami 52790
08 Itano Tomomi 50403
09 Sashihara Rino 45227
10 Matsui Rena 36929
11 Miyazawa Sae 33500
12 Takajo Aki 31009

Senbatsu

13 Kitahara Rie 27957
14 Matsui Jurina 27804
15 Minegishi Minami 26070
16 Kasai Tomomi 22857
17 Akimoto Sayaka 17154
18 Sato Amina 16574
19 Yokoyama Yui 16455
20 Masuda Yuka 14137
21 Kuramochi Asuka 12387

UG

22 Umeda Ayaka 11860
23 Takayanagi Akane 10674
24 Nakagawa Haruka 10854
25 Ota Aika 9910
26 Hirajima Natsumi 9742
27 Miyazaki Miho 9271
28 Yamamoto Sayaka 8697
29 Oya Shizuka 7264
30 Oya Masana 6660
31 Nito Moeno 6288
32 Komori Mika 6120
33 Hata Sawako 6117
34 Sato Sumire 5438
35 Oba Mina 5411
36 Suda Akari 5343
37 Maeda Ami 5220
38 Matsui Sakiko 5020
39 Miorin 4928
40 Fujie Reina 4698

[Xīn Chūn (仮)]

Want: Yuki & Yuko top two, please. (Either order!!)

The possibility of it happening is reasonably high. But I wouldn't rule out the other high ranking or up and coming members completely.

I don't think the top members will change too much overall. Maybe some rank swapping but nothing huge...

I'm more interested in the Undergirls ranking... Or whatever they're called this time. You know, the girls outside senbatsu. Whatever. But those girls are far less predictable... So I look forward to the result.

[Krusha]

If Amina's ranking is consistent, then she has a fair shot at being center position of first group underneath senbatsu. Though I of course have a highly realistic hope that all Acchan fans vote for Amina instead this year ... Ahem...

Well, I hope all groups/blocks gets their own PV's. That would be nice.

[marikosuki]

There are too many girls to love, I can't contain my favorites in only 16 slots!

Rather than make a list of all the members I love, as well as refrain from having to rank them, I'll just list my prediction.

1: Oshima Yuko
2: Kashiwagi Yuki
3: Watanabe Mayu
4: Shinoda Mariko
5: Kojima Haruna
6: Sashihara Rino
7: Takahashi Minami
8: Itano Tomomi
9: Matsui Rena
10: Miyazawa Sae
11: Kitahara Rie
12: Matsui Jurina
13: Kasai Tomomi
14: Yokoyama Yui
15: Minegishi Minami (because she'll bring the apocalypse if she's not a senbatsu member )
16: Takajo Aki

[Xīn Chūn (仮)]

There are too many girls to love, I can't contain my favorites in only 16 slots!

Rather than make a list of all the members I love, as well as refrain from having to rank them, I'll just list my prediction.

13: Kasai Tomomi

15: Minegishi Minami (because she'll bring the apocalypse if she's not a senbatsu member )
16: Takajo Aki

(reduced the quote to save space)

Why do you think Akicha will drop four ranks? D=

I don't think Kasai will outrank Miichan or Akicha... =/

It just doesn't make sense to me, going by the ranks and the numbers from last year. The ranks are important but there's also the matter that some ranks have more of a vote difference than others...

I don't see 22857 (Kasai) outranking 31009 (Akicha). Even 26070 (Miichan) is a stretch.

I mean no offense or anything but logically I don't see her really springing up that high... >.<

[Blu-Cherri]

I have to agree about kasai, she hasn't really had any big promotions since then either(dammit horipro, you have other girls ><)
Miichan I think will stick around where she was last year. Tomochin I see rising again due to people voting a lot for her to keep her safe after what happened last year rather than her staying down.

[Snapple]

People I'd like to see featured: (this means either senbatsu or whatever, I just want to SEE their faces in the songs and HEAR their voices in them as well)

- Sayaka Akimoto
- Amina Sato
- Sakiko Matsui
- Misaki Iwasa
- Misato Nonaka


YES.

[Erin.]

^ Where's the agree button when you need it?
I'd also personally add Fujie Reinyan to that list.

@ marikosuki: Really? Kitarie and Sae up that high? Not that I dislike this (I adore Rie), but I see Akicha ranking higher than Rie. Sae is kinda a wild card to me, since I'm never quite sure how popular she is.

[Logan ⭐]

I'd like for Amina, Wasamin, and Harukyan to be relatively close to the main single senbatsu this year~ I'd also like for Mocchi to rank higher!

[hitoyou]

The elections... This thing that I hate so much but still need and want...

The conditions for this years election has been changed quite a bit from previous years. No Acchan means that a huge pile of votes are free for other girls to get... Yes, many votes may be gone from the game, but still, many Acchan-fans are going to vote anyway and for someone else.

A bigger senbatsu will give low ranked members a better chance to rank this year... and the fans should be very well aware of this fact. I am sure that there are a lot of fans out there who voted safe last year. Not wasting their money on their favourite girl that they knew would not make it and gave it to someone else they liked that had a better chance to rank among the top 40...

So where will all the Acchan votes end up? Low ranked members or just the next top girl in line... Oshima, Kashiwagi, Shinoda etc.

Anyways...
The senbatsu girls should be quite safe and there are not going to be any major shake ups to the previous election... I think

Still, some thoughts:

The Matsui Jurina-fans will go for it this year, that drop last year will be taken care of..
Kasai Tomomi will probably lose big this year... Don't know but it feels like she will announce her graduation soon.
NMB48... Yamamoto Sayaka has chance for top 16? Watanabe and Yamada will rank for sure this year, but where?
Yamauchi Suzuran was out last year but have a good chance for a big comeback high up.
Sashihara Rino... Ranks 3rd after Oshima and Kashiwagi?
Yokoyama Yui... in top 10?


...Group B and C, where things will happen this year!

Will it be flooded with SKE-girls or will the AKB-fans finally vote for the "undergirls".
I am afraid that NMB will not have that many girls in top 64. Jo is being pushed like crazy but is it enough? Fukumoto and Ogasawara...
HKT... only Kodama Haruka, maybe?


AKB-girls I really wish will rank this year:

Shimada Haruka, Nagao Mariya, Takeuchi Miyu, Yamauchi Suzuran, Nakaya Sayaka, Chikano Rina, Suzuki Mariya, Iwasa Misaki, Katayama Haruka, Ishida Haruka, Kobayashi Kana... list is getting long have to calm down a bit ...Nakamata Shiori... more...

...GGGAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[marikosuki]

@ Xīn Chūn and Erin,

The reason why I have Akicha dropping so much is because I think her wotas pushed hard for her to make the top 12 media senbatsu last year. But now that the group has been increased to 16, I see them not working as hard.

It's not that I hate Akicha, to be honest she's an enigma. Personally, I don't think she contributes enough of her personality as much as the rest of the media senbatsu members. She doesn't even need to be that interesting, just more engaging if you know what I mean. This is partially why I dropped her a few spots too.

I pushed Chiyuu up a bit as well because she's been getting slightly more variety appearances, and I don't see her in AKB too long either so her wotas will be generous.

I try not to follow vote counts too much, we all know this year is going to be much more unpredictable (yet I gave a prediction anyway )

[chuxnon]

#1 hope is that all the jurina wota really go all out and make up for the drop last year. PLEASE. ; ~ ;

also would like to see sasshi and rena in kami7 (';
and mayu in top3 ! yesplz

[dev-null]

The opening post should be updated with relevant information maybe, at least that's what I was looking for and didn't find.

* when does the single (or singles?) come out that contain the voting tickets
* what other ways are there to vote (mostly interesting for Japanese fans only though)
* when will the voting period start
* ... and when will it end


I think I read the dates somewhere and it looked awfully like a short period of time which makes it tricky when one has to wait 2 to 4 weeks for a package to arrive sometimes. My last order took 3 weeks and one day, f.ex. :\ This is my biggest concern. When I order the voting single I also want to vote.

[Krusha]

How to vote:

- Buy 26th single "Manatsu no Sounds good!" (it comes in Limited A, Limited B, Regular A, Regular B and Theater version) [Note: Limited versions sold out everywhere except YesAsia]

Other ways to vote:

- By being a:

Member of the Official AKB48 Fan Club
Member of the Official AKB48 Mobile Fan Club
Member of the Official AKB48 Smartphone App
Subscriber of AKB48 Live On Demand monthly plan
Member of AKB Official Net
Member of SKE48 Mobile
Subscriber of SKE48 Live On Demand monthly plan
Member of NMB48 Mobile

One can vote for members of: AKB48, SKE48, NMB48, and HKT48. This also includes kenkyuusei members. 240 members in total. Maeda Atsuko will not participate in election, as she will graduate the group.

Voting period starts: 2012.05.22

Voting period ends: 2012.06.05, 14:59:59 Japanese Time.

In other words 2 weeks.

Results of Senbatsu Election will be for 27th Single, expected to be released in August.

Positions from voting will be split into 4 groups:

01-16 - Senbatsu Members
17-32 - Group A
33-48 - Group B
49-64 - Group C

[Blu-Cherri]

Has it always only been over 2 weeks? Such a short amount of time D: That'll mean no last minute decision about voting, will have to all be preorders.
I still can't decide whether to focus on shiichan or add nakayan to the votes. (I've decided on Nakayan as my 'not ranked before girl' to vote for since she's had promo recently it doesn't seem so impossible)

[Krusha]

I think it was 3 weeks or so last year. Can't remember.

I made order on CDJapan and HMV for both limited and regular copies, and the shipping will be FedEx and EMS, so hopefully there's no problem with the time limit.

I would like to vote for some other girls also, but when I consider the fact that a position can be decided by just a handful of votes, I feel reluctant again, and think I will end up giving all my votes to Amina no matter what.

[chuxnon]

i'm gonna get two copies. probably. or one. i don't know to be honest.
i really want two votes but idk if i can afford it with SKE single, s/mileage single, SKE&S/mileage albums and just UGHGHGHG.

anyway if i do get two votes i really wanna give one vote to yuukosu, but then again.......jurina really needs my votes ;-;
ahhhhh, i think i'll end up giving all my votes to jurina in the end but for now i'll be struggling.

[satchan]

I'm pretty excited about this election, especially to see where the Acchan votes go to. I know a lot will disappear, but I'm sure there will still be a ton that will be around, filtering into other girls and possibly upsetting the general order of things. I thought this was going to be an interesting year anyway in the top ten, but it has the chance to be even more now.

I'm not so worried about Akicha. I think she has a consistent enough fanbase that she'll be in the same general area. I don't see her climbing much, but staying around 12 or so seems plausible. I think she could pass Sae. I don't feel as optimistically about Kasai though. I don't know if she can bounce back in the same way Jurina or Tomochin can.

As for sister groups, SKE's representation will be most interesting to me, especially if you get to the lower parts of the rankings because I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of them show up. I think NMB will have four reps. I thought Sayanee was a lock for the senbatsu, but I'm not so sure now that it's only 16 members. Milky I think will be the highest debut. And Nana will show up somewhere. I figure Ainyan will be the fourth NMB member, but I don't know if I put a lot into Jo or Mayu making it. I hope for either, but I'm not going to expect either to. Certainly, any other member showing up would be an amazing surprise and I may shed tears.

I think Sashi is going to surprise a lot of people with her ranking. I could see her landing all the way at #2. I'd think about Mayuyu, but I can't help but wonder if she's "maxed out" in terms of her ranking. I don't think she can be a top three member, even without Acchan in the mix. I can't wait to see where Rena shows up. What I'm secretly hoping, as one of those "no one can be upset with it" kind of things, is that Takamina benefits heavily from the Acchan votes to make a big jump herself.

Is anyone going to try and go all out and make a full predictor ranking? Where's Kaoru going to be on it?

[Xīn Chūn (仮)]

Ohh I would love to make a prediction for the entire thing but I don't know enough of the sister group girls or undergirls... >.< Probably about half to 3/4 the undergirls and maybe 15 or so members from sister groups all together... >.<

If someone wants to collaborate with me to make a prediction, I'm open for that.

[Snapple]

How to vote:

- Buy 26th single "Manatsu no Sounds good!" (it comes in Limited A, Limited B, Regular A, Regular B and Theater version) [[i]Note: Limited versions sold out everywhere except

Thanks dude! I hope I get mine in time! The free shipping in YA is telling me it will take until June 5th to get there. *crosses fingers* I know I'm taking a risk but they usually get here a day or two before the estimated time anyway.

One vote for Sayaka and one for Amina. That's how it rolls.