30 replies to this topic

[goratnik]

With recent promotion of Ichikawa and pending assignments of other eight "former" kenkyuuseis raised mayu be question, whether there will be shortly massive graduations. Shinoda is already suspected to be away in less than year, but others...?
I've found two... three things, one good, one neutral (?), another bad:
1. since Aitakatta three regular senbatsu members were graduated (Nakanishi, another Oshima, Ono - previous two already three and two years ago), and rather not forcibly, as I find it over time. From those, that appeared at least once, were six graduated - the last being Oku, and it took her four years to decide. Taking into account, that graduated members' list already needed its own page on Wikipedia, it is surprisingly small amount.
2. I read that age has to be serious factor - no member can have 26 years or more (thought it is not from certain source for me, so far), and due to that Shinoda is going to be first "forced" senbatsu... with, say, one single missed so far? Is that called ageism? On the other hand: it will take three years for others to be threated this way. And dark times will come in 2015/2016. Far enough to not care now.
2. there was some months ago rumour, that some members will be kicked for "not putting enough effort" - and it seems, that some of background girls already got nervous. Notice Matsubara's moves - she was signed to agency and created a blog after FIVE YEARS of being in AKB. Maybe I'm overinterpreting, but looks like she's trying to save 4ss from troubles.

(unintentional mistake with "mayu" instead of "may" is left, bcoz I find it funny. The only chance for her to be mentioned here in, say, 8 years?)

[Krusha]

Nattsumii getting a blog is an agency thing, not her being desperate or something. Remember, Komorin and Micha also did not have blogs. And they're on same agency.

We honestly do not know anything at all with what's going on up in AKB camp re: teams. But the "Under" idea was mentioned. And it's possible there won't be any mass-graduation, but the promoted girls either get onto teams, or are left outside of teams, yet still promoted.
And then we get a situation where they alternate between lineups as they see fit, both according to schedules of girls, and also according to performances (akin to players on a football team, who are good - who are not, etc.).

We'll see soon enough I'm sure (or afraid...)

[Undirrast]

I believe it will also be related to members getting solo activities (Shinoda's NHK programme, Sashiko no Kuseni, Itano's solo debut, Acchan's solo debut...). All these should be preparation for them to be able to still stay within the idol area even after graduation and continuously be related to AKB.

[Universus]

I was thinking about the same the other day.

The dark period you talked about... it would be my worst nightmare...

Jurina moving to AKB and be THE CENTER.

I will quit akb that day.

too bad it will happen


well I dont think the age factor will force the big guns of akb to move away members... that factor comes when they talk about idols who have wotas as main/only target. This day AKB has a more solid fan base with girls and boys from all ages.

I don't think a smart move these days is to graduate... i mean look maimai ... the AKB tag in their names on tv gives them more spotlight imwo ...

my two yens anyway

[Undirrast]

I don't think it's possible for Jurina to move to AKB, what happens to SKE then?

I think that graduation will happen for older generation member, maybe not all in once, but gradually, when they can find nice replacement from amongst the kenkyuusei. So long as they continue to produce nice songs, I think it's still worth supporting

[anhh]

One doubt: I remember having read when Sakiko or Matsubara started their own public blogs that some people mentioned that they already had mobile ones (sort like SKE with the SKE website blogs and the Ameba one) not sure if to have access to those one you have to pay a subscription or not, but right now I can’t find anything about those members. Did they have them?

About some of the other questions, I’m not sure about the age criteria. I know they have been vocal about it as a recruitment thing (you can’t be a new RS if you are older than 20, or so it seems), but as an exit or obsolescence thing (you reach 26 and they shoot you, or you go to work and security signal you to go to the SDN room) they have been shier… I can sort of understand that you feel some glitch if say you see a woman in their 30s singing and dancing about how she is in high school and things like that, it seems that Sakura Gakuin members necessarily graduate from the group when they reach the age where they should left “school” to get to higher grades, but I get the feeling that AKB songs are much more diffuse about that right now, and even if they are youngish they are more abstract and more open to other age ranges (teenage love becomes love, school frustration and liberation becomes only frustration and liberation) and school uniforms are so deconstructed as to become only uniforms. Any way, is not a very smart move losing Yuko, Haruna or Mariko and the work they do for the group as spokespersons for some sort of dubious thinking (and there are already examples of the demise of some idols franchises due to that).

And yes, there is some sort of blockage currently in the group, the adding of new members and the departure of almost nobody, but kind of makes sense when you think about the theater work and all that… It kind of was the main reason why people left the group before it became mainstream (too much work for almost having no exposure, too much work becoming injuries).

[LonelySoldier]

Graduations will definitely come (probably not at this moments), but I think it's better for us to wait for the new team systems to be established, so that we'll have more informations on who's gonna what...

As for my prediction, Takamina and Acchan (and probably some more major frontgirls) won't graduate before their Tokyo Dome performance, so don't worry too much about them...

[dev-null]

With recent promotion of Ichikawa and pending assignments of other eight "former" kenkyuuseis raised mayu be question, whether ...

"Nine", you meant, right? Fresh Lemon is the 10th girl with that status.

[dev-null]

Some of the older lower-rank girls always have the chance to graduate into SDN48 if the time is right, I guess. I also see the possibility that some units graduate, e.g. DiVA could separate and do this EXILE clone concept just with girls (didn't they wanted to have auditions for new DiVA girls?).

Anyway... the one thing that is for sure is that there will be some graduations at some point. I'm not too worried about it, since I have my oshimen graduation already behind me and the research students are really cute too and show lots of potential, so all opened spots in the teams will be filled properly again. That's how it works... and also this ever-changing face is what the AKB concept makes interesting. Always something —or rather— someone new to discover.

[goratnik]

Ten? Aw, did I again miss something? It seems so, even Wikipedia lists nine members without Miori

LonelySoldier, do you really expect Dome not sooner than five years?

dev-null, you sound like observing graduation is not painful. Oshimen or not, even for favorites I'd expect not easy for fans to say "farewell".

Funny thing will happen, when in next shuffle some team girls will be replaced with those currently waiting... but neither graduated nor moved outside.

[dev-null]

dev-null, you sound like observing graduation is not painful. Oshimen or not, even for favorites I'd expect not easy for fans to say "farewell".

I did not say that. Just meant it is easier for me, since I have it already behind me once. Actually after the graduation it's not so much painful as in the phase between announcement of the graduation and the actual graduation. But that's part of it... and honestly such normal graduation is all okay, at some point the girls need to move on in one way or another. They can't be idols forever. That's part of the game.

What must suck are sudden graduations because of situations out of control of the respective girl (e.g. injuries, or getting fired because some old school "friend" uploaded some purika, etc.)

[goratnik]

purika?
http://www.glossary.....php?q=Purikura
http://www.lycos.com...o/purikura.html
Google returns such pages when asked for word above. Why these photos might be dangerous?

Do you remember such sudden graduations? Sound horribly, but I think it already would be better/safer to know such cases...

It looks that I still have to undergo such initiation... in MM I missed it, because all fav members were graduated even ages ago

[goratnik]

Looks like gods... wait, producers answered our doubts. More teams, more girls

[IdolLoverHisame]

Team A - Kikuchi Ayaka, Matsui Sakiko, Sato Sumire, Takahashi Minami
Team K - Kobayashi Kana, Chikano Rina, Nakata Chisato, Uchida Mayumi, Oshima Yuko
Team B - Oya Shizuka, Katayama Haruka, Ishida Haruka, Tanabe Miku, Kojima Haruna

For the girls in bold of course I expect dome graduations with follow up at the theater. I would imagine another dome tour next year with those three in Mariko, Tomochin, and Sayaka's shoes. The others I wager will go slowly between September 2013 and April 2014. Kobayashi Kana already implied she was going to seriously ponder graduation after Sayaka graduates.

[Krusha]

Girls who may announce their graduation, in varying degrees of likeliness:

Team A: Takamina, Nakamatta,
Team K: Ucchii, Yuko, Kitarie, Kana, Amina, Chikarina, Chiichan, Myao
Team B: Shiichan, Haachan, Kojiharu, Akicha, Tanamin

These are all guesses of course, and maybe someone else will graduate that I didn't list, but I think the above is a combination of older generation "graduation is natural at this point in time", and "there's nothing more to achieve no matter how hard I work, time to graduate".

[IdolLoverHisame]

^Why Kitarie and Akicha?

[Krusha]

Good question. And I could ask why Ayarin, Suuchan, and Harukyan for your list (especially considering that Ayarin has gotten more "higher level" work recently - senbatsu for summer single, CM with Paruru, and another with Kojiharu I think).

But, to answer - Akicha because apparently she has nothing to do now, very little work offered after returning to Japan. Being left out of a lot of things. Both her and Kitarie took a dip in popularity, and Kitarie too hasn't had much to do, although I think there's a drama lately for her. I'll admit though that Akicha and Kitarie from my list are two of the names I feel I am more likely to be wrong about than the rest.

[IdolLoverHisame]

^I didn't know Ayarin had been getting more work recently. I wouldn't consider a senbatsu spot in Sayonara Crawl anything special since she's usually put in the swimsuit singles when they give her a chance to be senbatsu and she has always been towards the back of the senbatsu she was part of lost among the other members. My reasons for listing her, Suuchan, and Harukyan is a mix of what you pointed out in quotes.

[Erin.]

Suuchan? God, I hope not.

Though, to be completely honest, I can't wait for the day that Kojiharu graduates. 

But, yeah, a lot of the girls listed will probably be trickling out within the next year. Though I get the feeling that someone like Haachan will hold out as long as possible. She's someone who knows her place in the group, but enjoys everything anyways. Like, I get the impression from her that she just really gets a kick out of performing. Micha is like this too. If you know that this is the furthest extent of your career in entertainment, why not milk it as long as you can?

[Krusha]

I will actually miss Kojiharu a lot, and while she's nice and all, it's mainly because of her voice. Tomochin and Marikosama graduating is one thing, they had their abilities and personalities and all, but neither of them are known for their great voices.

Having lost Yuttan and Nacchi recently, and now soon Sayaka, and then presumably Kojiharu too in not that long time, just sucks too much, because these girls have great voices I will miss. Same with Haachan and Takamina.