237 replies to this topic

[Krusha]

Going by Amazon price, 100 singles = 140800 JPY - that's just singles alone, then in addition I have to add 25% sales tax to it, and I haven't even factored in shipping costs yet.... So 100 votes will cost me a lot... (if I were to get 100 votes)

Anyways, a factor to consider this year is the massive amount of new fans. Will they vote for unknown girls or already established front girls..?

In AX09, Team B fans managed to vote Shonichi to #1, in AX10, Team B fans "only" managed to vote Shonichi to #8... Iiwake Maybe on #1...

[Blu-Cherri]

^But don't forget that some of those fans may have concentrated their voting on individual units this time.

The 'underdog' voting plan this year was for kimi no koto to win, but enough fans liked the way iiwake maybe was made(ie with the voting) that they voted for that instead.
If that makes any sense...

[Universus]

well yes but ... im sure wotas will take care of those votes... but i was thinking in rena/nacchan/sasshi/akicha/sayaka too

one kidney for sure it will worth at least 3 senbatsus lol

[anhh]

Sayaka's election video (?):



Edit:

On Youku:

Sayaka: http://v.youku.com/v...d_XMTY0OTE2NDg4
Iwasa Misaki: http://v.youku.com/v...Y0OTU2NDAw.html
Ishida Haruka: http://v.youku.com/v...Y0OTU2NTky.html

[anhh]

Ishiguro Atsuki:

[Universus]

did someone download the sayaka one?

[anhh]

This user still have them in YouTube (better quality than Youku, and all of them), but sometimes he makes them private:

http://www.youtube.com/user/4sg9Q98c

[anhh]

Ok, another popularity test. Taking this from Jasey@Stage48:

“It was learned on the 6th that all 48 members of the group AKB48, who are releasing their best album will be getting their own mobile radio shows on "All Night Nippon Mobile". The first episode will be distributed starting on the 9th, and only members whose file is downloaded more than 1000 times will get to have a 2nd episode and continue their show.

Each file will be 105yen, approximately 7 minutes and members who pass the challenge and get to keep their show will release a new file roughly every 1-2 months”.

And the ones that get the chance to have a second episode are:

Team A: Kojima Haruna, Sashihara Rino, Shinoda Mariko, Takajo Aki, Takahashi Minami, Maeda Atsuko.
Team K: Itano Tomomi, Oshima Yuko, Minegishi Minami, Miyazawa Sae.
Team B: Watanabe Mayu, Kasai Tomomi, Kashiwagi Yuki, Kitahara Rie, Komori Mika, Sato Amina, Miyazaki Miho.


Now, let’s go part by part. I think these results are interesting because people have paid for it, so you can count with the people that are on that list as members that can mobilize their followers for them. But I don’t think you can translate this as a “pure” list that show which ones are the more popular members right now. The first thing is, to state the obvious, that people are paying to engage listening one person, just for the things she has to said, how their personality translates expressed in words or how good they are with their storytelling and entertaining abilities. In that sense, Sashihara is not a surprise and Komori, well maybe it is for the number of people following her (we didn’t have any “real” numbers” about it) that could be a surprise, but this, I think is one is one of her strong points, where people can get charmed and fascinated the way she is. Again some of the people that should have a stronger chance in here but are not on the list are a surprise, and Myao being here is sort of tricky, I think her followers are decreasing but she still has a lot of them and she has lot of experience doing this kind of things (and if you think about it, lots of the girls here already do radio shows, podcasts or mobile shows, so it can be a degree).

I have read some people judging Erena’s absence as a probe of her decreasing popularity. I’m not so sure about that. One thing is that the group management is focusing on other girls now, which I think is true, so her time on TV is less and all that, and another thing is that she is losing followers. For example, before I mentioned how I think Myao is losing people. One of the things with Myao, one of her “selling points” (that is, the stories people tell themselves to justify their elections, which doesn’t mean that those things happening are a lie or anything like that), was how decided was in following her dream, how fast she was becoming a front girl and how high she could reach. I think, in that sense, she peaked before last senbatsu election. She still is the same girl but she isn’t “developing” so part of the snowball effect gets lost. Erena on the other hand, I think, didn’t have anything like that behind her and she is less or more the same girl, and didn’t get more boring or give to her followers reasons to get bored. So maybe she is not here because she depends more on her image (have read some translations from her blog, and they are nice but…). And this is one of the problems with this sort of popularity tests: people follow some girls for different reasons because AKB48 is purposely a group with different girls and different charms (I remember that Akimoto interview where he was talking about the group as a classroom with shy girls, fashion girls, witty girls, silly girls, happy girls, etc.) and these tests just focus on very determinate zones (exposition, beauty, charisma, etc.) of all the available ones. And, maybe, this is one of the reasons, minor and overcome for all the bad reasons we all know, why this election could be interesting. Anyway, I could be wrong.

[Leo醬]

柏木由紀 - Kashiwagi Yuki
松井玲奈 - Matsui Rena

my favourites

[Blu-Cherri]

^
^Updated by jasey@s48

Members whose All Night Nippon files reached 1000 downloads in second week:
A: Oota, Kuramochi, Nakagawa
K: Ono
B: Hirajima, Masuda

I really don't get why masuda isn't pushed at all considering she made undergirls for the last senbatsu and now this just really proves it. She's at the same level as WH and Erena.
Also Kuramochi is doing well too! =D She's higher than I thought.(I thought she'd dropped a bit since last year, popularity wise....well not dropped but been overtaken)

Handshake ticket sales
Members whose Ponytail to Shushu handshake tickets all sold out on the first day:
A - Oota, Kojima, Sashihara, Shinoda, Takajo, Takahashi, Maeda At
K - Itano, Oshima, Ono, Minegishi, Miyazawa
B - Kasai, Kashiwagi, Kitahara, Sato A, Watanabe
S - Matsui R

Members whose Ponytail to Shushu handshake tickets sold out in second stage of sales:
A - Kuramochi
B - Miyazaki, Komori
S - Matsui J

[Universus]

thanks for the update

omg rena ganbatte!!


lovetan, kuramochi, sashihara, hirajima OMG really?! amina too tons of cool girls?!


rena :D

[droopy10]

Going to buy 2 singles type A and B and with my 2 votes 1 will go to Shinoda and 1 to Moeno .

Things I think will happen:

1. Maeda, Shinoda, and Oshima will still be in the top 3 but the votes will be much closer.
2. Rena, Sasshi, and Takajyo will be senbatsu members.
3. Along with Yagami, at least 1 more ske48 member will undergirls.

Things I think could happen:

1. Akimoto, Amina and Minegishi voted into undergirls.
2. Shinoda voted #1.
3. All member from from "Kimi no koto suki dakara" ,except Oku, Ishida,and Maeda, will make at least undergirls.
4. Rena in the top 10, Sasshi in top 15

Things I want to happen:
Moeno voted to Senbatsu!

[Krusha]

There are many wishes I have for senbatsu, some perhaps realistic and others perhaps not so realistic, but if the following girls could make it into senbatsu and hopefully better than #13, I'd be ecstatic:

- Amina, Sayaka, Harukyan, Maachan, Nacchan.

I think Amina and Sayaka have and should have a good chance for a spot better than #13 (#1 to #12 are those who get to be in all performances on TV etc.), and possibly Nacchan may make it to senbatsu - but I have doubts about Maachan and Harukyan's chances ...

[droopy10]

Anyways, a factor to consider this year is the massive amount of new fans. Will they vote for unknown girls or already established front girls..?

In AX09, Team B fans managed to vote Shonichi to #1, in AX10, Team B fans "only" managed to vote Shonichi to #8... Iiwake Maybe on #1...

I think new/casual fan, who only knows AKB48 through their singles, will have a pretty big effect on the results this year. Just like how the girls mentioned in their commentary on how this year's top 10 songs were mostly singles because the have made a lot of new fans. So the members who were part of the main cast in Majisuka, members who often make appearances on AKBINGO and Shukan or were the main focus on recent PVs will get most of their votes.

My Top 5:
1. Shinoda Mariko
2. Nito Moeno
3. Sashihara Rino
4. Matsui Rena
5. Kuramochi Asuka

Predicted Top 5:
1. Shinoda Mariko
2. Maeda Atsuko
3. Oshima Yuko
4. Watanabe Mayu
5. Kashiwagi Yuki

[mixedmedia]

did someone download the sayaka one?

Downloaded it off youtube so I can use the 'yoroshiku' for a phone alert or something later!
Sayaka is awesome!

Gonna watch whatever other ones I can find later.

But if something else was meant then I have no idea what that is.

They're on the official AKB site or something? I go to sleep and wake up to find they all got made private.

[Krusha]

They're on DMM.

[MaikuBano]

I'm curious. Do you have to live in Japan to vote?

[Amee.]

^ No, but it may be difficult to ship your voting ticket.


I don't want to be mean to her, but I wish Maeda won't come first this time. She has been the most popular girl for too long. I don't care who else gets the top spot - Mariko, Yuko, Mayu, anyone. Maeda has been the star for too long. I don't have anything against her particularly, and I don't dislike her, but I think the other girls work so much harder, when Maeda's position has always been secured.

I sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo need Sayaka in senbatsu. I seriously won't be able to cope with it if she's out again.
What did Sayaka do wrong?

*starts ranting and sobs in the corner*

[pollypan]

^
^
I think there are some people in other forums could help people who live outside of japan to vote^^
But just make sure we will get our voting ticket before 6/8........

[taskinist]

I sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo need Sayaka in senbatsu. I seriously won't be able to cope with it if she's out again.
What did Sayaka do wrong?

Wellllll.... what did Amina do wrong?

Sayaka just isn't as popular as other girls/doesn't have as big of a fanbase. I heard that people who were voting for Yuko last year gave their votes to Sayaka because they knew Yuko wouldn't beat Acchan and well, they're team K fans. Of course the extra K fan votes would go to Sayaka. I can't confirm how true that is, though. :l

To quote my friend from STAGE48,

There's basically no point in saying "Why is so-and-so so low despite being so talented?" about anyone in AKB, because they're all very talented, but someone always has to be low.