237 replies to this topic

[Universus]

Once again the girls and fans will go to the limit!

Introduction
- Senbatsu means the members who will be able to appear in the single PV.
- Fans will have to buy the 16th single Ponytail to Shushu to get the ticket and vote for the member you want to be in senbatsu.
- Senbatsu members who will appear in 17th single PV will be the TOP 21.
- Those selected in TOP22~40 will be Undergirls, getting the couple/side-b song of the 17th single.
- Last year, the TOP 12 were the ones doing the PR and appearing in TV Shows.

Details from aakun@s48

New Senbatsu Election:
- for an upcoming single (17th Single) to be released next August.
- 108 members to vote : AKB48's Team A, K, B and Kenkyuusei (total 63) + SKE48's Team S, KII and Kenkyuusei (total 45)
- like in the previous election, the votes will be revealed 2 times prior the final announcement:

x First announcement: 5/26
x Second announcement: 6/5
x Final Results: 6/9 (at JCB Hall)

Methods to vote:
1. Ticket included in AKB48's 16th Single (5/26 Release)
2. Fanclub 「柱の会」 members
3. AKB48 Movil subscribers
4. SKE48 Movil subscribers
5. AKB48 LIVE ON DEMAND subscribers

References thanks to tokyolucifer from s48

Last Year Result.

１前田敦子 - Maeda Atsuko - 4630
２大島優子 - Oshima Yuko - 3345
３篠田麻里子 - Shinoda Mariko - 2852
４渡辺麻友 - Watanabe Mayu - 2625
５高橋みなみ - Takahashi Minami - 2614
６小嶋陽菜 - Kojima Haruna - 2543
７板野友美 - Itano Tomomi - 2281
８佐藤亜美菜 - Sato Amina - 2117
９柏木由紀 - Kashiwagi Yuki - 1920
10河西智美 - Kasai Tomomi - 1890
11小野恵令奈 - Ono Erena - 1838
12秋元才加 - Akimoto Sayaka - 1599
…………メディアライン………… (Media Line)
13北原里英 - Kitahara Rie - 1578
14宮澤佐江 - Miyazawa Sae - 1547
15佐藤由加理 - Satou Yukari - 1539
16峯岸みなみ - Minegishi Minami - 1414
17浦野一美 - Urano Kazumi - 1395
18宮崎美穂 - Miyazaki Miho - 1373
19 松井珠理奈 - Matsui Jurina - 1371
20多田愛佳 - Oota Aika - 1365
21倉持明日香 - Kuramochi Asuka - 1355
…………選抜ライン………… (Senbatsu Line)
22米沢瑠美 - Yonezawa Rumi - 1352
23高城亜樹 - Takajou Aki - 1322
24大堀恵 - Ohori Megumi - 1316
25増田有華 - Masuda Yuka - 1247
26平嶋夏海 - Hirajima Natsumi - 1216
27指原莉乃 - Sashihara Rino - 1170
28片山陽加 - Katayama Haruka - 1089
29松井玲奈 - Matsui Rena - 1073
30松原夏海 - Matsubara Natsumi - 1050
…………アンダーガールズライン………… (Undergirls Line)

Are you voting this time? Are you voting again this year? If you vote will you tell us for who will vote?
Who will be the girl returning to senbatsu? Who will stay out from the senbatsu?
Who is gonna be the surprise?

Any TOP 5 for this year?
1. Shinoda Mariko
2. Maeda Atsuko
3. Kashiwagi Yuki
4. Oshima Yuko
5. Watanabe Mayu

I so want Rena, Amina, Sashihara and Natsumin being in senbatsu

[kazuma2387]

I think top 5 will be something like this

1. Maeda Atsuko
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Takahashi Minami
4. Oshima Yuko
5. Shinoda Mariko

but all my votes will be going to Kasai and Nacchan

[z3144228]

Mixi Ranking as 27/03/2010
Mariko Shinoda 18,514
Atsuko Maeda　　13,778
Yuko Oshima　　10,932
Tomomi Itano　　 9,177
Haruna Kojima　　 8,516
Mayu Watanabe　　 7,953
Minami Takahashi 5,660
Tomomi Kasai　　 5,040
Erena Ono　4,264
Yuki Kashiwagi　　 4,123
Sae Miyazawa　　 4,084
Rena Matsui　　 3,160
Amina Sato　2,630
Minami Minegishi. 2,561
Jurina Matsui　2,398
Rie Kitahara　　 2,303
Aki Takajo　　 2,302
Sayaka Akimoto　　 2,279
Aika Oota　　 1,792
Asuka Kuramochi　1,785
Miho Miyazaki　　 1,717

After bloody appear in Majisuka Gakuen Rena seem to be got rapidly increasing in term of popularity
She might be elected as Senbetsu (Jurina also but less vote)

My prediction only

[izrael]

- Fans will have to buy the 16th single Ponytail to Shushu to get the ticket and vote for the member you want to be in senbatsu.

Methods to vote:
1. Ticket included in AKB48's 16th Single (5/26 Release)
2. Fanclub 「柱の会」 members
3. AKB48 Movil subscribers
4. SKE48 Movil subscribers
5. AKB48 LIVE ON DEMAND subscribers

I think it's not actually a method to vote. More likely, if you a fanclub member, mobile subscriber or live on demand subscriber, you get one vote from each one of it. Example, if you are SKE48 mobile subscriber, you already have one vote without even have to purchase the CD. So a hardcore fans who subscribe to all the above method already have 4 votes in hand, before they even release the CD.

* Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[anhh]

About the things you can expect, with last’s year experience, is that the elections could determine the selection of girls and the space dedicated to each one on a swimsuit book. If people expect that, it could be some variation respect to people voting their favourites. About people voting, I suppose there are going to be more votes (Type A & B ), but I’m not sure how people are going to use that. The people that the last time bought 3, 5 or 12 CDs to vote Haruna or Aika, probably would do the same, but the people that just buy the single could act in two ways: two votes for her favourite girl or one for their favourite (if people think that their vote wouldn’t mark any difference on the top 10) and the other for other girl, maybe the less known or not.

I’m not sure if I’m going to vote. Shipping is around three weeks (usually less but not much) so depending on when they close the polls (and if I have the chance actually…) it could be or not…

Not sure about my predictions (I really don’t care if I get it right or not, or if my favourites are on Undergirls or not, I’m not sure if that at the end, means something for the management…), but less or more these are my expectations, what I understand could be feasible and not “surprising”.

Top 5 (in no order)

Maeda Atsuko
Shinoda Mariko
Oshima Yuko
Watanabe Mayu
Itano Tomomi (last year, when she made an entry on her blog there was around 200-500 responses, right now, she always goes over 1000, and there even was a recent one around 4400)

Takamina would be around the same numbers than last year, Kojima could get lower, Amina would be also lower but I don’t think that much, Aika and Aki up (and Yukirin also?), Rena could be senbatsu (her first entry on the SKE blog doubled in responses what Jurina got with hers, but I don’t think that is going to happen on elections). I’m not sure what to expect for this three girls (I think they deserve it and when I think about AKB I see them): Sayaka, Minegishi and Myao. I would like to see Sashihara, Yuka or Natsumi in senbatsu (but that is my preference). The other girls could go up and down, but they are going to stay there.

About UG, maybe you could see people like Komori or Maeda Ami selected. And another SKE girl? Yagami, Kanako or Yui (can you vote for Yui?)

[Universus]

I want Nacchan to be the Cindy of this year

[taskinist]

I think top 5 will be something like this

1. Maeda Atsuko
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Takahashi Minami
4. Oshima Yuko
5. Shinoda Mariko

FINGERS CROSSED

[Blu-Cherri]

Posted on s48, found on 2ch is this ranking. Not entirely sure what the numbers are, they're either average picture costs or the amount of people who lined up for photos at one of the recent 2shot events

写真会最新相場表　3/20
　　　　 相場　3/1調査(順)　増減
01 渡辺　 　12,593　6,628 (01)　+5,965 - Watanabe Mayu
02 大島　 　11,326　6,394 (03)　+4,932 - Ooshima Yuko
03 前田敦　11,035　6,579 (02)　+4,456 - Maeda atsuko
04 柏木　 　10,170　5,882 (04)　+4,288 - Kashiwagi yuki
05 高橋　 　10,102　5,684 (05)　+4,418 - Takahashi Minami
06 篠田　 　*9,739　5,373 (08)　+4,366 - Shinoda Mariko
07 松井玲　*8,931　4,191 (12)　+4,740 - Matsui Rena
08 小嶋　 　*8,383　5,493 (06)　+2,890 - Kojima Haruna
09 板野　 　*8,207　5,188 (09)　+3,019 - Itano Tomomi
10 宮澤　 　*7,363　5,380 (07)　+1,983 - Miyazawa Sae
11 小野　 　*7,123　3,723 (15)　+3,400 - Ono Erena
12 高城　 　*6,690　4,479 (11)　+2,211 - Takajou Aki
13 河西　 　*6,393　4,491 (10)　+1,902 - Kasai Tomomi
14 峯岸　 　*6,043　2,813 (19)　+3,230 - Minegishi Minami
15 指原　 　*5,648　3,543 (16)　+2,105 - Sashihara Rino
16 北原　 　*5,565　3,858 (13)　+1,707 - Kitahara Rie
17 松井珠　*5,488　2,507 (21)　+2,981 - Matsui Jurina
18 多田　 　*5,152　3,354 (17)　+1,798 - Oota Aika
19 佐藤亜　*4,940　3,854 (14)　+1,086 - Sato Amina
20 倉持　 　*4,382　2,413 (22)　+1,969 - Kuramochi Asuka

basically the ranking is showing who has the 'biggest wota.' The numbers make sense with the 'line' theory as the top 4 girls here were the ones that had 2 lines to get to the 2shot(as in you start in one line which I think was outside, then get moved to another before getting to the girl, all the other girls just had one line)

[Krusha]

In order to get some sort of measurement of the overall popularity, one needs to consider many factors: Blog rankings, Mixi rankings, previous Senbatsu Election, unsigned/signed photos and their availability/price, number of fans meeting each girl in various events, and much more.

But the most difficult part of the equation is buying power and level of fandom. One hardcore fan can easily defeat the combined powers of 10 people, in terms of buying power. So to look at both auction status and previous senbatsu election can be a bit problematic. I think then, when you look at specific ranks which criteria are formed mainly by wotas and not so much average fans, you will get results that you won't find when you combine average fan into the equation (basically, it's all fairly open until the very end, considering that a few fans can change the election positions by giving all their votes to a different girl or such). I wouldn't be surprised though if this years Senbatsu election would get more participation from average fans considering that their popularity is ever expanding - so it can give some interesting results

Previous Senbatsu gave following end results:

AKB48: 10 A's, 6 K's, 4 B's, 1 S (From today's team standings: 6 A's, 6 K's, 6 B's, 2 SDN's, 1 S)

Undergirls: 4 B's, 3 K's, 1 A, 1 S (From today's team standings: 4 A's, 2 B's, 1 K, 1 SDN, 1 S)

I think largely what we will see in the following election, is much of the same, but with slight reshuffles of positions, and a handful of girls that may disappear from AKB48/Undergirls lineup, and instead be replaced by girls like Harugon, Moeno, Maachan, Aamin, Harukyan, and Suuchan.

But who knows - maybe Nachu will be voted up to senbatsu position...

[Blu-Cherri]

^SDN48 aren't in the votings.

[Krusha]

OK, I wasn't aware. That just further solidifies the lineup speculations I have though. At the very least 3 girls (SDN) will be gone from upcoming senbatsu and replaced by 3 other girls. But who? *dun dun dun*...

[Universus]

very interesting table cherri
hmm akicha!!!!!
omg rena :DDDDDD!!!!!!!!!

im voting for her!

wow awesome maybe this can tell us somehow a better prediction of what to expect this year.

seems the surprise is rena uh

Spoiler

pachinko gods please don't come again with your "but jurina is the face of ske and she has to be in your place rena ;( so change her and let her be in the pv

[silenceglaive]

Seems we can hope for Rena getting a good spot in the votings
She really deserves it imho

It is although interesting how such numbers change in time.

[izrael]

This is my early thought.
__________________________

Shinoda, Maeda, Mayu, and Oshima will battle for 1st place.

Jurina and Rena will be in senbatsu but won't get anything above 10th.

Sayaka will be below Sae.

Takajyou and Sashihara will make it into Senbatsu.

Yagami Kumi will make it as Undergirls

Two more from Team S will make it into Undergirls, probably between Masana, Kanako, Rikako, Haruka, Yui.

A person from Team K-11 will make it into Undergirls - Takayanagi or Manatsu


* The biggest shocks if it were to happen are :

Rena in top 10.

Kasai out of top 10.

Sayaka and Miho out of senbatsu.

Yagami Kumi reach senbatsu.

A graduation before election.

[Krusha]

#1 belongs to Acchan, 98% guaranteed (well, my estimated guess )

１前田敦子 - Maeda Atsuko - 4630
２大島優子 - Oshima Yuko - 3345
３篠田麻里子 - Shinoda Mariko - 2852
４渡辺麻友 - Watanabe Mayu - 2625
５高橋みなみ - Takahashi Minami - 2614
６小嶋陽菜 - Kojima Haruna - 2543
７板野友美 - Itano Tomomi - 2281
８佐藤亜美菜 - Sato Amina - 2117
９柏木由紀 - Kashiwagi Yuki - 1920
10河西智美 - Kasai Tomomi - 1890
11小野恵令奈 - Ono Erena - 1838
12秋元才加 - Akimoto Sayaka - 1599

Korin here needed 1285 votes to tie for #1, Mariko needed 493 votes to tie for #2, Mayuyu needed 227 votes to tie for #3, Takamina needed 11 votes to tie for #4, and Kojiharu needed 71 votes to tie for #5.

This is Top 5, and below #1 it is very, very close between positions - but as we can see, Acchan on #1 with a big gap between her position and the next.

If Acchan falls down from #1 I will be shocked!

Personally speaking, I will give my votes to an AKB48 girl who have been doing this for a long time and deserves to be in senbatsu.

[taskinist]

Idk though, it's been a whole year. Maybe the other 4 girls in last year's top 5 have gained fans.

I'm interested to see how this will turn out. (I'm also luckily a fan of a popular girl so I don't have to worry about her getting into senbatsu >___________> *blunt*)

[Universus]

^ is that Mayu?

izrael yeah i know, even when Sayaka has been in the media these days I think Sae will get a better position.

totally support your idea of sashihara and akicha being in senbatsu

[Blu-Cherri]

Don't forget though that around the time of the voting it seemed that a lot of Yuko fans gathered like 300votes or something and realising that they couldn't beat acchan gave their votes to sayaka(team fans sticking together and such)
Also CinDy was voted up from her passionate election video which moved a lot of fans(still probably B fans)

So the Team lineup shakeup could effect a few things here just looking at how it effected 2 people's positions last time round.


There are sooo many factors that could mix things up, I think it's quite exciting and I think the girls find it exciting as it truly gives them a chance to try to prove themselves(like with Amina's story, her votes were above her fanbase numbers but people saw her working hard and thought she deserved to be higher)

Any news on anyone on here being able to sort out someone to vote on our behalf? If there is I might buy a few copies to help voting (probably an erena and shiichan vote, even though she's only been promoted recently she has been around for years she's a 4th gen!)

[Universus]

I made an evil and sexy pact with a friend, she and I will get 100 copies each
both of us voting for rena

no organs left but i will have to order 20+20+20+20+20 and i only have available three cards and addresses so i will try to get the 100 before the time limit... or summons some jfriends to help me get those batches

[izrael]

^
I thought you are Maeda fans.

Well if your 100 votes goes to Rena, then my 100 votes goes to Jurina. I wonder how much my kidney worth?