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Well...I probably have too much free time on my hands or I, rather, I like to procrastinate way too much by doing silly and weird things like studying numbers haha
First of all, I'm going to apologize because english isn't my first language, so I struggled a bit here and there. Hope you'll still be able to enjoy all this ^^
If you guys enjoy those entries, I'll try to make some regularly ^^
Why have I started this? Well, I’m frankly tired of people comparing 9ki and 10ki. They both came in in 2011, yes, but 9ki has done 3 singles more than 10ki within MM and another 1 with Mobekimasu (even though 10ki participated in the promotions, they weren’t in the MV and stuff, that does affect popularity and experience), not to mention that 9ki has done 2 MM Concert tours and 1 H!P concert tour more than 10ki. And, 9ki had debuted 9 months before 10ki when they came in. There is no comparison to do! Or, there is, but we need to compare them fairly.
That is why I started this in the first place, but as I started digging further, I discovered some things that are even more interesting. That is why I will make more than one blog post about the topic!
What have I based my studies on? Mixi rankings. For those who don’t know, here’s the topic that Ahiko and DoctorWho never fail to update nowadays; http://www.hello-onl...larity-ranking/ thanks to them!
Now, why MIXI rankings? Not gonna bother much and just gonna quote what is said at the beginning of the topic :
We can also rely on those numbers as Sayumi referred to this to give her own ranking within H!P (by the way, those numbers include OG, ex members, current trainees & ex eggs).About mixi: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixi
Official site of mixi: http://mixi.jp/
So basically mixi is a social networking service with more than 1 million communities and 10 million members. Of course all Japanese H!P member fan communities are included in mixi, that's why you can count the number of people each H!P member community has. Of course it's just statistics, but imo it's the most significant way to get a popularity rank of H!P in total. I'm posting this, because there are often misunderstandings among non-Japanese fans about the popularity of certain H!P members in Japan. For example not everyone knows about Konno's or Tsuji's extreme popularity, because they aren't as popular in English H!P forums.
I might make an extra blog entry to bring other interesting statistics (not MIXI related)
So in this entry will manly focus on kyuukies & juukies. First, which generation is the most popular?
To get a clear answer, I decided to take the generations’ respective popularities after approximately 10 months each in the group, which equals December 2011 of 9ki and August 2021 for 10ki :
9ki (as of 11/01/11) - 10 months :
29. (1705) Sayashi Riho
35. (1166) Fukumura Mizuki
38. (943) Ikuta Erina
39. (891) Suzuki Kanon
Total : 4705
Numbers of H!P members : 110
10ki (as of 08/01/12) - 10 months :
37. (1471) Kudou Haruka
42. (1044) Ishida Ayumi
44. (845) Satou Masaki
45. (798) Ikubo Haruna
Total : 4158
Numbers of H!P members : 115
Based upon those numbers, we can easily say that 9ki is more popular than 10ki in general. But is it right to just stop there? I wanted to dig further as I had other numbers quite in front of my eyes that showed that saying this might be a bit wrong.
So here are the numbers after one months for them in MM :
9ki (as of 02/01/11) - 1 month :
40. (690) Sayashi Riho
46. (433) Fukumura Mizuki
49. (376) Suzuki Kanon
51. (230) Ikuta Erina
Total : 1729
Numbers of H!P members : unknown
10ki (as of 12/01/11) - 1 month :
46. (656) Kudou Haruka
64. (212) Satou Masaki
73. (171) Ishida Ayumi
75. (167) Ikubo Haruna
Total : 1206
From the beginning it’s easy to see that two generations didn’t get the same welcome from the fans and that’s pretty easy to understand; how long fans had been waiting for a new generation to be added to the group? Even more when 3 members were graduating from the group? Who was even ready for a new generation when the auditions for 10ki were announced?
So yes, while 9ki drew in lots on interest, 10ki received a cold welcome and had a slow start.
Here is the delta from month 1 to month 10 for both gen :
9ki (02/01/11 -> 11/01/11) :
+1015 Sayashi Riho
+733 Fukumura Mizuki
+713 Ikuta Erina
+515 Suzuki Kanon
Total : +2976
10ki (11/01/11 -> 08/01/12) :
+873 Ishida Ayumi
+815 Kudou Haruka
+633 Satou Masaki
+631 Ikubo Haruna
Total : +2952
Same amout of time, almost same popularity growth for both generations. One thing that really surprised me is how 10ki popularity grows "evenly" or more evenly should I say then 9ki. Kyuukies have Riho far in front, PonPon in the middle and Kanon far behind. While 10ki has two blocks Ayumi/Haruka ans Masaki/Haruna. Please, take note that Ishida was once the least popular member of her generation and has now the fastest popularity growth!
Yet, I was wondering if those numbers were "right". Because as I stated earlier, 9ki was welcomed in the group and Ai was still there (but Eri, JunLin were gone). Even though Niigaki (and Aika) is now gone, she was far from being as popular as Ai. Let's say the context wasn't the same for both generations. So I started to wonder how the popularity growth was for 6ki during both periods (I later added Ai, Gaki and Aika) as they are the "faces" of MM right now (as in most people recognize them).
So let's start from the beginning;
As for 01/08/12 here are the numbers for Rokkies & Kyuukies
9ki :
26. (2448) Sayashi Riho
35. (1570) Fukumura Mizuki
36. (1473) Ikuta Erina
38. (1268) Suzuki Kanon
Total : 6759
Delta (11/01/11 -> 08/01/12) :
+743 Sayashi Riho
+530 Ikuta Erina
+404 Fukumura Mizuki
+377 Suzuki Kanon
Total : +2054
6ki :
4. (5539) Michishige Sayumi
5. (5081) Tanaka Reina
Total : 10620
Delta (11/01/11 -> 08/01/12) :
+615 Michishige Sayumi
+330 Tanaka Reina
Total : +945
Here are the current growth rankings within MM :
+873 Ishida Ayumi
+815 Kudou Haruka
+743 Sayashi Riho
+633 Satou Masaki
+631 Ikubo Haruna
+615 Michishige Sayumi
+530 Ikuta Erina
+404 Fukumura Mizuki
+377 Suzuki Kanon
+330 Tanaka Reina
Currently dominated by 10ki & Riho. A little surprise there is Reina.
In comparison here are the numbers for 02/01/11 -> 11/01/11 this time including Ai, Aika and Risa :
5ki :
1. (5841) Takahashi Ai
24. (2225) Niigaki Risa
Total : 8066
Delta :
+1222 Takahashi Ai
+487 Niigaki Risa
Total : 1709
6ki :
4. (4924) Michishige Sayumi
5. (4751) Tanaka Reina
Total : 9675
Delta :
+955 Michishige Sayumi
+370 Tanaka Reina
Total : 1325
8ki :
37. (990) Mitsui Aika
Delta :
+141 Mitsui Aika
Popularity growth ranking (without 10ki) for 02/01/11 -> 11/01/11
(+1222 Takahashi Ai)
+1015 Sayashi Riho
+955 Michishige Sayumi
+733 Fukumura Mizuki
+713 Ikuta Erina
+515 Suzuki Kanon
+487 Niigaki Risa
+370 Tanaka Reina
+141 Mitsui Aika
Popularity growth ranking (with 10ki at 1 month) for 02/01/11 -> 11/01/11
(+1222 Takahashi Ai)
+1015 Sayashi Riho
+955 Michishige Sayumi
+733 Fukumura Mizuki
+713 Ikuta Erina
+646 Kudou Haruka
+515 Suzuki Kanon
+487 Niigaki Risa
+370 Tanaka Reina
+212 Satou Masaki
+171 Ishida Ayumi
+167 Ikubo Haruna
+141 Mitsui Aika
At first glance, it's easy to see that this period of time brought in much more fans than the following one. We can speculate that bringing in a new generation is to bring another hype and help raise those numbers like they did during 2011.
Basically, the fact that 10ki has been able to keep up with 9ki's growth means that they are currently attracting more to the public than 9ki was at the time.
Now, here are the "fans" proportions for Febuary 2011, November 2011 and August 2012
Feb 2011
Total (5ki [Ai + Gaki], 6ki, 8ki [Aika], 9ki) : 17285
5ki : 36,78%
6ki : 48,31%
8ki : 4,91%
9ki : 10%
Nov 2011
Total (5ki [Gaki], 6ki, 8ki [Aika], 9ki, 10ki) : 18801
5 ki : 11,83%
6 ki : 51,46%
8 ki : 5,27%
9 ki : 25,03%
10ki : 6,41%
Total (Only 6ki, 9ki, 10ki) : 15586
6 ki : 62,08%
9 ki : 30,19%
10ki : 7,74%
Total (6ki, 9ki, 10ki) : 21537
6 ki : 49,10%
9 ki : 31,83%
10ki : 19,31%
I would start by pointing out the total numbers of the "fanbase"; for those who like to say that Morning Musume is a burning ship, I think we have a proof that even without Ai and Gaki, the group isn't declining at all. The intake from Feb 2011 to November 2011 is actually much more bigger than what we see since Ai left during this period. Keep that in mind, I'll come back on this topic in another entry!
Now, to finish studying those proportions, first thing I saw was that in November, Sayu and Reina had more than half of the "fans" and now, the situation has reversed with the new members totalizing more than half of the fanbase.
Just stating my opinion, but once Rokkies will fall under 40% we should start expecting a graduation for sure.
Back to the numbers themselves;
9ki from feb 2011 to nov 2011 : 10% --> 25, 03% (~ x 2.5)
10ki from nov 2011 to aug 2012 : 6,41% --> 19,31% (~ x 3 )
So, even though the total number of 9ki is once again higher, 10ki wins on the growth level.And this, is my conclusion.
Yes, 9ki is more popular, but 10ki has a better popularity growth rating and that is really important for a group that has to invest in their future. In 6 months or so, I think the two generations would've been more or less on the same level, but now that a new generation is coming in, it's going to be interesting to see how things will turn out. If a new ace won't rise from this and snatch Riho, Ayumi or Haruka's spots.
I hope everything makes sense up to here and that you enjoyed reading this... Also, that you learned something ^^
My opinions aren't really stated in there, I'll probably make a real opiniated entry in a near future as I would've liked to point out some things here and there, translate those numbers into the reality that we see, but I didn't want people to say I was too biased ^^
Feel free to comment if you feel like it ^^
